The Daily Lancer

First Spring Training Games

2007-03-04T15:35:00.000-05:00

Breaking News: Mark Grudzielanek will undergo knee surgery on Monday. There is no timetable for his return, but it is certainly weakens the Royals' defense up the middle until he returns. German will likely become the regular second basemen until he returns. German had an outstanding season for the Royals last year, hitting .326/.422/.459. So, he may be an upgrade offensively over Grudzielanek.

Spring Training games are finally underway and we've gotten a look at some of the Royals' new acquistions.

Game 1: Brian Bannister started for the Royals, pitching very well. Bannister went 2 innings, allowing 0 runs and throwing just 17 pitches (14 strikes). Bannister could be a nice find for the Royals. At the very least, it'll be nice to have someone in the rotation who can throw strikes. Joakim Soria's pitched two scoreless innings. A very good start for the Royals' young pitchers. The other big story was Billy Butler, who hit a 2-run single to put the Royals ahead 6-4. The Royals lost 7-6.

Game 2: Meche pitched well in his Royals' debut, pitching 3 scoreless innings and allowing just 2 hits. Gobble ended up with the victory, even though he allowed 2 runs in 2 innings. Butler continues to hit extremely well. He's 4 for 7 with a double and 2 RBIs so far. Shealy went 1 for 3 with a homerun and 3 RBIs. Huber later took over at first, going 0 for 1. Gordon went 0 for 4, making him 0 for 6 so far.

Game 3: Teahen and Buck homered for the Royals. Huber continues to play 1B, but struggled at the plate going 0 for 3. Perez pitched horribly, going 1 1/3 innings and allowing 4 runs. Perez was worth a shot, but I hope the Royals don't keep him around too long if he doesn't pitch better.

"B" game: Hochevar pitched in Friday's "B" game, throwing 2 scoreless innings. Rosa also pitched a scoreless inning and Buddy Bell was impressed with his stuff.

Sunday's game so far: Luke Hudson had a pretty good start for the Royals, going 3 innings and allowing just 1 run. Zack Greinke has pitched a scoreless innings so far. Alex Gordon got his first hit of the season, the only hit through the fourth inning.

Positives so far: The young players are doing very well. Butler, Shealy, Teahen and Buck have provided most of the Royals' offense. The Royals' young offensive talent is finally starting to show, which should make this season more exciting to watch.

Negatives so far: Perez looks like the Perez from 2006. Also, losing Grudz for an extended period of time is a blow to our defense up the middle, which already has a giant hole at shortstop.

Minor League News: Jeff Bianchi is healthy again. He will likely head to extended spring training and move to Burlington. The Royals' article also says he's throwing from the shortstop position (maybe insinuating a move to short?). Erik Cordier, who had a brillant season until getting hurt, will not pitch until the fall instructional leagues. Cordier may have the most upside of any Royals' pitcher next to Hochevar.

College Prospect Update: James Simmons

2007-03-03T00:53:00.000-05:00

I watched the University of Oklahoma play UC Riverside this afternoon and got a first-hand look at RHP James Simmons. Several scouts were on hand (including a Royals' scout) to watch Simmons and Sooner starter Stephen Porlier (more on him in another post). Here's a brief bio of James Simmons:

Simmons is a junior at UC Riverside. He is a 6'4", 215 lbs right-handed pitcher. Last season, he led the team with a 2.96 ERA and led the team with 94 strikeouts in 109 1/3 innings. Simmons pitched in the Cape Cod League last summer and had a 1.18 ERA in 53 innings. Baseball America listed him as the eighth-best prospect in the Cape Cod League.

Projected Draft Position:
Simmons is currently listed on Baseball America's Top 100 collegiate prospects for the 2007 draft. Brewerfan.net currently has Simmons listed as the #59 prospect in the country, which would make him an early to mid second round. If he continues performing well, he probably won't be around when the Royals make their selection with the #65 overall pick in the 2nd round. But, he's worth keeping an eye on.

2007 Stats:

4-1 2.38 ERA 34 IP 38 SOs 8 BBs .185 BAA

Simmons is off to a good start for 2007. Simmons is a candidate for the Roger Clemens' Award for the top collegiate pitcher. Before Simmon's start today, he was 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA. However, he struggled against the Sooner offense, allowing 9 hits on 7 runs in 5 innings.

Scouting Report: Simmons strongest asset is his control, which was fairly absent today. In addition to his two walks, Simmons hit two batters today. So, his performance today probably isn't the best for evaluating him. Simmons displayed an average (cut) fastball sitting at 89-90 mph. His second main pitch was his changeup, which wasn't very effective in keeping the Sooner hitters off-balance.

Simmons has a very high leg kick (see photo at start of post), but does a very good job of maintaining balance over his right leg during his delivery. He has a very clean, repeatable delivery overall and fields his position well.

Here's a short video clip of Simmons: Simmons Video

Summary: Simmons has pretty average stuff, but has plus command of his repertoire. He has a projectable frame at 6'4", 215 lbs, so he may end up throwing harder than 90 mph. If he's available when the Royals make their second-round selection, he would be a good pickup.

Coming up: Wichita State Prospects

Coming Soon!

2007-03-01T02:36:00.000-05:00

I will have an in-depth look at 3 of Baseball America's top 100 college draft prospects. This will be the beginning of draft coverage from the Daily Lancer featuring college player previews with photos and maybe some videos.

Beginning to Look toward the Draft

2007-02-09T22:56:00.000-05:00

2007 draft

We are 4 months away from the 2007 draft—most of the big college programs get started this weekend. We hope to provide coverage leading up to the draft—covering players that the Royals might be interested in.

There are some pretty big changes to this year’s draft. First there is an August 15th deadline to sign draftees—that means no more long holdouts—clubs and draftees have to get a deal done. As added leverage for clubs, if a club does not sign a player from the first couple rounds, the club is given a compensation pick next year right after the lost pick. (i.e. if the Royals failed to sign their top pick—the #2 overall—they would get the #3 overall pick in 2008). There are no more draft and follows—drafting a HS player who then goes to JC where he can be signed after he season ends and before the next draft begins. Lastly, due to changes in the way free agent compensation works, the Royals after the #2 overall pick won’t pick again until around pick 64.

The draft will bring to conclusion Dayton Moore’s 1st year as GM. It will be interesting to see if our draft strategy changes much. Deric Ladnier has a Braves background-so perhaps he has already brought many of those changes with him. I will especially be watching to see if the Royals new emphasis on pitchers with curveballs (as opposed to sliders) affects who we draft. That may have been one of the reasons that the Royals took Hochevar over Miller in 2006. Hochevar has a good curve—Miller is known for his slider.

The 2007 draft will hopefully be the last time the Royals have a top 5 (or even top 10) pick for a long time. It will be very tempting to take a college talent who is closer to the big leagues—but this year’s draft class has excellent depth. While there are definite front runners for the top couple of picks, there are plenty of other players who could zoom up the charts in the next few months. Here are some of the best known players.

Baseball America has excellent draft coverage, but you have to pay for most of it.

Brewerfan has excellent free coverage—I encourage you to check them out:

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewDraftArchive.do?draftId=5

Here are my rankings as we head into the amateur season:
College:

1. David Price
Price has very good stuff—FB, SL, CH and good control. His numbers were better than his ERA indicated last year at Vandy. He pitched great for Team USA last summer—5-1 .20 ERA, 44ip, 7W, 61K. If he pitches well in the spring, he probably becomes a Devil Ray. I would love to have him—but wonder how dogmatic the Royals are about pitchers that that feature a slider.

2. Matt Wieters
If Price is #1, Wieters is #1a. A switch hitting catcher who also closes for Georgia Tech. He has power and patience. He as a rocket arm (he is also a very talented pitcher). Being 6-5 there are questions about whether he can stay behind the plate. His offense doesn’t seem quite as advanced as Alex Gordon’s but Wieters plays a premium defensive position. He has apparantly signed with Scott Boras--which may make things interesting (as has Brackman). The question is: if he has to move to 1st base, is he still worth the #2 pick?

3. Andrew Brackman
Brackman is 7 feet tall. Brackman throws easily in the mid to upper 90’s. That will get you noticed. He is supposedly more polished than most really tall pitchers. He will need to back it up this year with some good numbers—particularly K/BB ratio. More risk than your typical college player.

4. Joe Savery
Savery has had some injury issues but he has a good FB/CB combo. On the downside, the recent history of Rice pitchers, coupled with the injuries he’s already had, does not inspire confidence that he will develop.

5. Nick Schmidt
Schmidt posted a dominant year last year in the SEC (beating out Price for SEC Pitcher of the Year). He has three quality pitches--fastball, slider, change. However, he had a less than inspiring summer that left many questions as we head into this college season. He has to prove the doubters.

We'll cover the High Schoolers next time...

Royals Ink Gobble and Brown

2007-01-17T11:31:00.000-05:00

The Royals avoided arbitration with Emil Brown and Jimmy Gobble, signing both to 1-year contracts. Gobble signed for $712,500. Gobble had a good year in the pen last year, striking out 80 in 84 innings. Certainly a good sign for a pitcher who used to strike out one batter every 3 innings. Gobble's stuff is probably best suited for the bullpen, especially since his fastball can reach 94 mph more regularly. He can also spot start and did a decent job last year (5.14 ERA as starter).

The Royals signed Emil Brown to a one-year, $3.4 million deal. Brown has been one of the Royals' most productive bats over the past two seasons, leading the team in RBI's over that period. With Brown and Sanders under contract, the Royals will have plenty of time to let Teahen transition to the outfield and give Gordon as much time as needed in the minors.

The Royals also signed Alex Gonzalez to a minor-league contract. He was downright awful for the Devil Rays last year, hitting .111/.158/.111 in 36 ABs. His career line of .243/.302/.391 isn't anything to brag about, but he is a good backup shortstop.

The Royals are still negotiating with Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer has good stuff, but his even K/BB ratio is certainly a concern for next year. He may have trouble repeating a pretty good season last year if he can't improve his command. Nonetheless, he's a cheap, young reliever, so he's worth re-signing.

Minor League Chat

2007-01-10T01:37:00.000-05:00

meteorologistdave: The Royals seem to have set the main positions in the roster for 2007. The Royals could still use another veteran starter or reliever to add some depth. But, for the most part, the 2007 Royals are ready to go. And of course, if someone will take Angel Berroa, then by all means take him!

garoyal23: What I'd like to see the Royals do between now and Opening Day is to trade from our position of strength (outfielders) to land some more pitching depth. It doesn't matter to me if that depth is at the major league level or a legit minor leaguer. We just need depth. Like you say, Angel Berroa is a huge question mark. His numbers have been declining every year, but his defense seems to be improving. I'm comfortable giving him another year to see what happens with him. If he declines for the 4th straight year, then cut your losses. However, if he manages a .270 average with an OPS of around .670 to .700, then that will satisfy me. That being said, I'd like to see Moore sign a veteran middle infielder that could possible slide into the SS role if Berroa fails. Someone to push him.

meteorologistdave: Using their outfield depth to acquire more pitching or a shortstop would be a welcome move. Speaking of the Royals' tremendous depth at the corners, let's get started with Alex Gordon. If you put Gordon in the lineup now, he's probably going to be the best hitter in the lineup, even as a rookie. However, that could be detrimental to his development. I think he could use at least a couple months at AAA before he becomes the Royals' everyday third basemen.

garoyal23: I haven't seen anything that makes me think that Gordon will be a liability at third base defensively. I am leaning toward having him start in out in KC in 2007. That makes the lineup stronger instantly. I'm not sure where he'd start out in the lineup (I'm guessing 6th), but he'd definitely make the lineup stronger. Teahen was rushed to the majors, in large part to Chris Truby's spring training injury, and he struggled in his first full season. I really don't see that going on with Gordon. He put up fantastic numbers last year in AA. He's more of a hitter than Teahen at AA. If he starts in KC, he'd do fine with the bat and fine with the glove.

meteorologistdave: I think Gordon is talented enough to do very well in the majors right away, I just think it would be beneficial to give him a little more experience. Gordon's draft counterpart Ryan Zimmerman has already logged 672 ABs, so I'm guessing Gordon is probably ready. I just tend to be cautious, especially considering how important his development is to the future of the franchise. The next most likely prospect to make the team, Billy Butler?

garoyal23: In my mind, the thing that will keep Butler from making the team will be his defense. He was drafted as a 3B. He was then moved to 1B. Then moved to the OF. From what I've seen, he isn't doing all that badly defensively, but he would surely benefit from spending 2007 (or the greater part of it) in AAA working on his defense. I think the Omaha OF will be Lubanski in left, Maier in center and Butler in right. Huber will get the majority of his ABs (if he's not traded) from the DH spot in the order, but he's likely to play the field as well, so he's not viewed as one dimensional when Moore is shopping him.

meteorologistdave: That's pretty much what I was thinking when I asked the question. This season will tell us a lot about the future positions of Butler and Huber. My guess is that one of the two will become the Royals' left fielder (probably Butler) and the other will see time at DH. Of course, then there's talk about Huber moving back to catcher. So, his future is really up in the air. Butler is young enough I think he can become a passable left fielder. So, with Butler/Huber in left field and Teahen in right, how does that bode for the future of Lubanski, Maier, Costa, and the Royals' other outfield prospects?

garoyal23: DeJesus is under contract through the 2010 season (there's a team option for 2011), so he's going to be a fixture in center field for a long time. Well past the time that the Royals will have to make a decision on the futures of those you mentioned. I've seen that Maier has drawn some interest from other clubs and could eventually be traded. I'm sure that Costa is one that other teams would be interested in as well. I'd like to keep Lubanski in the organization, though. He is a young kid and has reached the AAA level. Both Lubanski and Maier were drafted in '03, so they could stay in the Royals minor leagues through the 2008 season. At that time, Lubanski would be only 23 and Maier would be 26. Shane Costa (also drafted in 2003) would be turning 27 after the 2008 season.

meteorologistdave: Lubanski would be a good prospsect to keep around considering his upside. He's just a year older than Butler and he's held his own offensively over the past two seasons. Maier could also be useful as a fourth outfielder with his versatility (he can play all the outfield positions). The outfield situation looks pretty good and the Royals have plenty of options and time to make these decisions with Sanders and probably Brown in the outfield this season. The Royals seem set everywhere except the middle infield positions. German's defense will have to improve before he becomes an everyday second basemen. Are there any middle infield prospects who seem like they could be the second basemen or shortstop of the future? Outside of Jeff Bianchi, who can't get out of rookie ball, I can't think of any who stand out.

garoyal23: I can't either. There's Sanchez and Blanco in the upper minors. Sanchez has the glove for SS (Blanco, too, for that matter) but I don't think either will put up the offensive numbers that you like to see out of your SS. Sanchez is going to need a full season at AAA and then we'll have to see what happens after that. We are set at 2B this season with Grudzielanek and probably 2008, as he has a player option for '08 ($4.0 to $4.5 million). I've read that Bianchi profiles out better as a 2B, rather than SS (I guess it has to do with his range). So, the way it looks, we've got no one to look to as our SS of the future. We used to think we were set at 2B for the future with Gotay and Murphy in the system, but they are both gone and all we got was Jeff Keppinger (who was recently DFA'd).

meteorologistdave: The middle infield looks pretty bare, so it'll be interesting to see what Moore can do to fix that. Next time we'll discuss the Royals' pitching and catching prospects. I guess that will mainly be a discussion about the Royals’ pitching prospects since there aren’t really any catching prospects to discuss.

Did the Royals really overpay Meche?

2006-12-29T14:02:00.000-05:00

Barry Zito signed a 7-year, $126 million deal with the Giants yesterday, continuing the trend of overpriced starting pitching. The two top starters in the free agent market pulled over $15 million a year. But, they are clearly the two best starters available and will fill the ace role nicely for any team willing to spend the money.

Here's a list of the contracts given to the top free agent starters this offseason. The dashed line separates the two tiers of starters.

Ranked in terms of cost:
1. Barry Zito, 28 (7 years at $18 million/yr, total: $126 million)
2. Jason Schmidt, 33 (3 years at $15.7 million/yr, total $47 million)
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3. Gil Meche, 28 (5 years at $11 million/yr, total: $55 million)
4. Jeff Suppan, 31 (4 years at $10.5 million/yr, total: $42 million)
5. Ted Lilly, 30 (4 years at $10 million/yr, total: $40 million)
6. Miguel Bautista, 35 (3 years at $8.33 million/yr, total: $25 million)
7. Adam Eaton, 29 (3 years at $8.17 million/yr, total $24.5 million)

Meche was the most expensive pitcher out of the second-tier of starters in terms of contract length and cost per year. Was this justified by his market value or did the Royals overpay?

Justified:

Meche is the youngest of the free agent starters listed above. That certainly increases his market value. Meche also has the most upside of the second-tier starters, although Eaton is close. Eaton had a poor year which hurt his market value considerably. Suppan and Bautista are considerably older and are league-average starters, so there's no upside there. In terms of upside, age, and recent performance, Meche is the best available pitcher.

Overpaid:

The main downside to Meche is his past injury problems. Giving a 5-year contract to an injury prone player is certainly risky business. Meche also struggled in 2004 and 2005, most likely because of injury problems. He had a good season last year, with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.86 K/BB. Will his success continue or was it just an anomaly?

Conclusion: The Royals signed Meche for a deal that was reasonable for the market.

Daily Lancer Discussion: Offseason Moves

2006-12-22T01:11:00.000-05:00

Now that we have Darren's thoughts on the offseason moves thus far, georgiaroyal and I decided to have a discussion about the Royals' offseason moves:

georgiaroyal: I suppose we've got to begin with the job that Moore is doing in his first offseason as the Royals GM. What I really appreciate, as a fan, is action on his part. Some may quibble about the money that's been spent and so on, but staying with what we had just wasn't a viable option.

soonerroyal: I certainly agree with that. Although the Meche deal seems well to be extremely expensive, he is immediately better than anyone on the staff for the past several years. He's also made some major changes to the bullpen. It seems as though Dayton Moore is moving away from the young power arms and relying on veteran relievers.

georgiaroyal: Meche is getting $7 million in '07 and then it jumps to $11 million in '08-'09 and then $12 million in '10 and '11. Sweeney's contract coming off of the books after this season helps us afford him, and I'd rather have money wrapped up in a pitcher than a position player, anyway. I like what's being done in the pen. We need guys that can come in and throw strikes. How frustrating has it been to watch a guy trot in from the pen and struggle with the zone?

soonerroyal: That's a very good point. And it seems like the Royals are gravitating toward strike throwers and getting rid of the guys who have no clue where the strikezone is (Burgos, Sisco). However, it still hurts to see great young arms leave the team, especially when they cost so little. But, this team needs a change. The major league team is getting the overhaul it needs to become a functional unit again. Allard's teams placed the burden mainly on the youngsters. But, it looks like Dayton is going to place the burden on veterans and once the young players are ready to contribute, then everything should come together.

georgiaroyal: That is very much the way it has worked for the Braves over the past 15 years. Now, instead of being forced to put guys like Greinke in the rotation, we can leave them in the minors until they are absolutely ready. Dayton's money is being spent on different types of players than Baird when he had a little to play with. I'm less concerned signing guys like Meche, Dotel, Bale, and Riske than when Baird brought in Santiago and Juan Gonzalez. The reward is much more likely than with those types of guys.

soonerroyal: I really like the potential reward from the Meche deal. He's entering the prime of his career and he's coming off a strong season when he was healthy for the first time. Dotel is a very good closer if he's healthy and is only 33. Those are certainly good gambles. Gonzalez and Santiago, as you mentioned, were well past their prime and had more risk than reward.

soonerroyal: Moving on to the Royals’ recent trades, the Sisco for Gload trade still strikes me as rather odd. The Royals gave up a very talented lefty for a reserve first basemen/outfielder. I'm still having trouble justifying this deal, although Gload will be a useful player certainly. He gets on base at a decent clip and has modest power. But, giving up a young power arm seems pretty risky. It's the type of move a contender would make to complete their team, but not a team that needs to build a core of talented players.
georgiaroyal: At the risk of sounding like a Moore-lover (maybe I am...a little), I do like the acqusition of Gload. He gives Shealy a backup at 1B as well as a guy that can play a corner OF position. This makes Sanders and Brown even more expendible than they already are. Our list of guys that can play the outfield in KC next year is: Teahen, DeJesus, Gathright, Brown, Sanders, Costa, Gload, and possibly Maier, Huber, and Butler. Wow. That sure is a long list, but the primary reason for getting him was to have competition for Shealy. He'll be a good guy to have around for that. I agree about giving up Sisco, though. It is risky, but I don't think that one will come back to bite us. I really don't. The league adjusted to him and he had nothing else to go to.

georgiaroyal: Sisco averaged 5.02 BB/9 innings in his rookie year (his good year). Last year, that number jumped to 6.17 BB/9 innings. That isn't what you want coming out of the pen.

soonerroyal: Sisco certainly has a lot of development left. He's going to have to learn another pitch and improve his command. If he does (probably a big IF), he could be a top setup man or closer. But, Gload will ensure Sweeney never takes the field and give the Royals options at the outfield spots. I just think that with all of the outfield options the Royals have, signing someone like Mientkiewicz could have accomplished the same thing without giving up a young arm. But, it's not a terrible move. What are your thoughts on the Jason LaRue acquistion?

georgiaroyal: That's true. It's not terrible, but it would have been nice to send Sisco to the minors for a year or so and see what happens with him.

Getting LaRue was a deal that I didn't pay that much attention to. The Reds are paying half the '07 salary. He's a low average hitter with some pop in his bat. That sounds like a certain someone we know, doesn't it? Buck just hasn't put it together, yet, so getting LaRue will either push Buck to produce or it will prove him to be a solid part time/backup catcher. John isn't a young Buck (pun intended). I'm still holding out hope that he will have a breakout year and approach 18-20 HR and a .260 batting average. I think he's capable of those type of numbers. Hopefully, hearing LaRue's footsteps will inspire him to reach those numbers.

soonerroyal: Buck and LaRue are very similar. Their offensive numbers are very similar, their SB/CS ratio is very similar. He's basically an older version of Buck. So, hopefully the Royals just acquired him to bring in some competition in case Buck struggles. LaRue isn't a guy you want as your starting catcher. I think Buck has some upside as well. He's shown pretty good power at times, so maybe his bat is just taking a while to develop.

georgiaroyal: Buck will be turning 27 this season. He's approaching his prime, and I do expect him to put up some better offensive numbers in 2007.

georgiaroyal: Before the season starts, I'd still like to see some moves made, and I expect to see some action with all of our outfielders. Maybe we can use Brown/Sanders (or both) to acquire some more pitching depth or maybe a shortstop of the future to push Berroa. We are set at all of our infield positions. We are definitely set in the outfield, and catcher. If the Royals have some money and want to acquire another veteran starter, I don't think I'd have a problem with it. We don't have a lot of young guys knocking the door down, so let them continue to develop.

georgiaroyal: I'll admit that I'm always high on the number of wins I predict, but right now, this looks like a team that could win between 75-80 games.

soonerroyal: That pretty much echoes my sentiments. The Royals are pretty well set overall, but the more reliable veteran starters the team can get, the better. I'm certainly looking forward to the season and being able to watch a stable rotation for once. Hopefully it will put an end to all the random waiver wire starters the Royals have used over the past few seasons. I'm not quite as optimistic, but I think 70-75 games is pretty reasonable. If Butler and Gordon get up here quickly and make an impact right away, I could certainly see 75-80 games. On our next post, we'll have a discussion about any new Royals' moves as well as our thoughts about the Royals’ depth chart, particularly at the top.

Recent Moves

2006-12-16T18:56:00.000-05:00

I had been meaning to run down the Royals other recent acquisitions-and then the Sisco-Gload trade goes does this afternoon. So I will get to that after I cover the other moves.

Burgos for Bannister

I really didn’t like this trade at first but I’ve warmed up to it a little but overall it is still not a move I would have made. Burgos was mishandled but still has got great stuff and very intriguing potential for any team patient enough to keep him in the minors for another year or so to let him learn to pitch.

Bannister is a decent pitcher. He’s rather old for a prospect. I’ve had an infatuation with Scott Baker for a long time and the more I looked at their numbers, the more I saw them as similar. Too much has been made over Bannister’s 38 ip last year. Some of his advocates point to his decent ERA in that time, his detractors point to his bad BB/K ratio. Historically his BB/K ratio has been good, his WHIP and ERA are also pretty good. Of course, his stuff is not stellar so it will be his ability to change speeds and hit his spots that will determine if he can be a reasonable back of the rotation starter. I think he will be given every opportunity to start this year and would expect an ERA of about 5.00 with the big club.

Octavio Dotel

We have our proven closer. Dotel for $5 million + another $2 in incentives. A smart move—Dotel has been a strikeout machine in the past and if he is healthy could be one of the better closers in the AL. He could also be a very valuable trading chip come July (assuming the Royals are not on some miraculous run). One note for concern is that Dotel’s numbers have for the past few years looked a lot better than his actual ERA. Regardless, it’s a good move and the only way the Royals could screw it up is to get a few good months of Dotel and then sign him to a lucrative extension. Hopefully, he’s just keeping the seat warm until someone like Ryan Braun or Leo Nunez are ready.

John Bale

Who? Was my first thought, but the guy had very good stats in Japan. 2 yrs @ $2 million per. I like this gamble, again this guy has got some good stuff and might be more than just a lefty specialist. The Royals scouting may have paid off with this little diamond in the rough.

Joakim Soria

Our Rule V pick has gotten a lot of press due to his perfect game last week in the Mexican League. There is a lot to like here. Translating numbers from the Mexican League is tricky, but it considered most of the time about AAA. Also considered an extreme hitters league. Soriah is 9-0, with a 1.77ERA, 71.1ip, 46h, 8hr, 19w 73k. Those are very impressive numbers. I think this guy could actually contribute this year. He’s got 3 pitches and should be a long relief guy and perhaps get a spot start.

Sisco for Gload

I don’t get it. I really don’t. Perhaps it has something to do with a report by Rany at Baseball Prospectus that reported that Sisco was in the food court getting a taco during a recent game. Sisco was dismissed from the team. I certainly think Sisco chances of becoming an abover average pitcher are not above 50%. I don’t mind trading Sisco, but was Ross Gload the best we could do? He’s not a bad player, just not exactly what we need. He's a left handed hitter who can play OF and 1st. (perhaps those rumors about us trying to get Ryan Church were not so off base--would Jim Bowden really not take Sisco for Church? That would have been a much happier move for me). Of course, the obvious is that this is the precursor of what could be several moves involving: Emil Brown, Justin Huber, Reggie Sanders, and less likely Mike Sweeney or Ryan Shealy. The only way this trade is redeemed is if the follow up is a good deal and not a “dump”. I must say I’m scared to death that we are going to get not very good value for Justin Huber.

So, we've dumped Affelt, Bautista, Howell, MacDougal, Burgos, and now Sisco. Some of those trades look good to me (Shealy) others leave me with big questions (Burgos and Sisco). I don't quite get Dayton's M.O.. He dumps crafty left hander (Howell) but picks up crafty righthander (Bannister). He dumps underachieving power arms (Bautista, Sisco) and picks up another (De La Rosa). It will be interesting to see what comes of these moves and what is in store. One thing you cannot do is complain about this offseason being boring.

Gil Meche to the Royals

2006-12-07T19:01:00.000-05:00

5 years/$55 million. Let's get this out of the way: the Royals way overpaid. No if's, and's or but's. But this is our "statement". Would I have chosen this? No. But here we are. I'm actually excited. It's December: we can look at Meche and see what we want to see. Let's look at the good and bad of this move:

The Bad:
Let's start with the negative:

Meche has had major shoulder problems

In the 4 years since his shoulder surgery, he's never had an OPS+ of over 100 (average)

He had a 5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road last year

He's never pitched more than 200 innings

The Royals gave more money to Meche than Jason Schmidt got. Almost as much as Chris Carpenter got.

The Good:

Meche is only 28--pretty young for a FA pitcher.

Meche's raw stuff is very good.

Meche's innings pitched have increased each of the past 3 years as he's gotten stronger from his shoulder problems

His strikeout rate spiked last year and he K'ed over 7/9ip-a promising sign for future results.

Meche had a bad 5 game stretch at the end of July/beginning of August. Take out that stretch and his numbers are:
170ip 151h 64w 139k 3.76 ERA 1.26 WHIP.
3 of those starts were on the road (including a horrific start in Texas where he only pitched 1 inning). He skipped a start after that stretch and pitched better the rest of the season. There are probably a lot of average pitchers who could take a 5 game stretch and look a lot better.

Dayton Moore knows all this stuff. He was willing to pony up David Glass's money anyway. Perhaps he believes that with the right coaching Meche will turn into a sub 4.00 ERA pitcher. We will have to way 4 months to find out.

I think we may very well look back at this move as the defining moment of Dayton's era. It could be the day we rue as when we trapped ourself into an awful contract because we were desperate. Or it could be the bold stroke that pushes the Royals out of being known as a punching bag in baseball--the day the Royals became winners again. Today we are left to wonder and hope. And right now hope seems worth $55 million.

Winter Meetings Preview

2006-12-01T18:45:00.000-05:00

Next week are the winter meetings. The Royals will, no doubt, try to pick up more pitchers. I had advocated looking at Adam Eaton and/or Randy Wolf. Both those guys are gone now. Guys like Padilla and Lilly are looking for 4 yr/$40 mil contracts. Gil Meche will get a little less than that. I am among many Royals fans who increasingly willing to have the Royals sit this one out when it comes to really expensive league average starters. Save the money for something else. The best route is to look for free agent bargains and trades. Of course, if the Royals spend big bucks on a starter, I'll probably talk myself into thinking its a good move.

Trading Chips (in order of how I value them): Esteban German, Emil Brown, Justin Huber, Joey Gathright, Reggie Sanders.

I don't want to trade German but I have a feeling he's on the block.

Bruce Chen--really like the idea of signing him to a 1-year/$4 mil deal with some incentives and perhaps an option for a second year.

Miguel Batista--he could be a bargain. But I've already read an article calling him a bargain, so he probably is now expensive. But if we could get him for 1 yr/$6 million with an vesting option I think he could be a guy that could pitch 200ip of 4.75 ERA.

Yusmeir Petit--Joey Gathright for Petit? Not great stuff, but good control. Marlins have pitching out their ears and he would be good to have start the year in Omaha.

Scott Baker--Maybe I'm obsessed with him , but I think he will bounce back and be a good pitcher. Would either Emil Brown or Justin Huber be enough to get it done.

I've also long advocated a new SS. And while I still would love that, if the Royals can't find someone that interests them, perhaps the best thing to do is hope that Berroa improves his fielding and can post a 675-700 OPS.

I think the Royals will have made a few moves a week from now. They might have even made some huge (by Royals standards) moves. It should be exciting and should give us our first offseason glimspe of how Dayton plans to build this team.

The case for trading Mark Teahen

2006-11-23T00:43:00.000-05:00

Perhaps this should be called the case for shopping Mark Teahen. I really like him as a player and think the strides he made last year were real.

Let’s recap Mark’s season:

April: stunk—678 OPS
May: demoted—stunk for a few games and then got smokin’ hot
June: warmed up—816 OPS
July: smokin’—1135 OPS
August: hot—905 OPS
September: shoulder surgery

He finished with an 874 OPS—good for 2nd in the AL for third basemen and 8th for all third baseman. As we approach 2007, Teahen is being readied for the outfield because of Mr. Alex Gordon. Teahen’s numbers actually translate well to the OF as his OPS would rank 6th out of all LFers and 5th out of all RFers. However with the lack of pitching the Royals have, it seems prudent that they should listen to offers for Teahen.

What I would look for is: established young starters not close to free agency. Perhaps a pitching prospect might be accepted but it would have to be a great prospect. A couple of teams that need a third basemen are the Twins and Angels. The Twins have got a ton of pitching prospects: Matt Garza, Kevin Slowery, Anthony Swarzak…just to name a few. But it would be tough to trade within the division (even though I really like Garza and Swarzak). To me the perfect solution is the Angels—they have depth in positions we need. We provide them with a cheap third baseman which would allow them to go out and sign Alfonso Soriano this offseason. The Angels reportedly offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Miguel Tejada in the middle of last season. The Orioles foolishly turned it down. They apparently wanted Tejada to play 3rd. Tejada is a great player—but an expensive one also. I would target getting the same package from the Angels by pairing Teahen with Mike Sweeney and kicking in $8 million dollars to make Sweeney look more attractive.

The upside for the Angels is that they can acquire Teahen and Sweeney and still have money to Alfonso Soriano. They would then have one of the most potent lineups around and a great pitching staff with Lackey, Weaver, Escobar, Saunders.

Santana was 23 last year and went 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA. His WHIP was 1.23 and he struck out 141 with 70 walks in 204ip. He allowed a .265 average on balls in play (which means he was awfully lucky). He has an outside chance to turn into an elite pitcher but more than likely will settle into being a very good pitcher with an ERA that will hover around 4 or a little below. Santana has flyball tendencies that would fit in well at the K.

Aybar is sparkplug SS. His defense is still uneven and he hasn’t fully harnessed his speed. But he has shown the ability to hit. This past year, his OPS was well into the 800s for most of the year. He got called up and sat on the bench for awhile with the big club and then slumped horribly at the end of the year leaving his OPS at AAA at 740 as a 22 year old. I think he could develop into a good defensive SS with an above average (perhaps well above average) bat for the position.

I think the Angels are desperate to make some big moves and improve their offense. The Angels signing of Gary Matthews Jr. to a 5 year/$50 million contract shows that they might just be desperate. The signing of Matthews also seems to signal that they will not pursue Vernon Wells and I still doubt they want to take on Manny. Perhaps they will set their eyes again on Miguel Tejada. If the Angels are not as desperate for offense as I think they are, then we stick with what we’ve got—Teahen--a young player with outstanding offensive skills and the ability to play a premium position.

2007 Options

2006-11-14T23:42:00.000-05:00

2007 Options

It is such a stab in the dark trying to predict what any given team will do in the offseason. I hope to look at the Royals position by position and see what the feasible options are—perhaps by covering more ground we will have a greater chance of stumbling on the acquitions that Dayton Moore is looking to make for next year. Feel free to add you own prognostications.

Catcher:
The 2006 crew:

John Buck was the starter and didn’t make the desired strides offensively that many of us hoped—his OPS hovering around 700. It is very difficult to accurately measure a catcher since a lot of value can come from working with pitchers. Buck seems to be decent defensively. Catchers tend to develop offensively later than other positional prospects—but that is no gurantee that Buck can raise his OPS to 750ish range.

Paul Bako stunk. He won’t be coming back.

Down on the farm:

Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman are not going to be starting catcher but either could be an improvement over Bako. I look for Philips to be the backup and Tupman to be in Omaha.

Other options.
FA Greg Zaun has already been linked to KC. But if he returned, it would probably be as a started-which means Buck would have to be flipped. Some guys I like if we wanted to trade include Yorvit Torrealba-COL and Kelly Shoppach from CLE—both are decent offensively and supposed to be good defensively and are blocked currently. Signing someone like Mike Piazza could be a smart move--he could catch a little (a very little) play some 1st and some DH when Sweeney gets hurt. But it won't happen.

2007 predictions: Buck and Philips--What should happen Buck and Piazza

Third Base
The 2006 Crew:

The resurgent Mark Teahen—played great—874 OPS. But it sounds like he is already being prepped to go to the outfield when his shoulder heals. I like Teahen—a lot—but I would hope the Royals would listen to trade offers (Ervin Santana?) for him. Unless we are blown away—we hang on to him and let him play RF (assuming his shoulder heals, his arm would be more valuable in RF than LF)

Down on the Farm:
Teahen is just holding the spot for Alex Gordon. The only drama is here is will Gordon break ST with the Club or get to return home to Nebraska for a month or two

Other Options: not needed

2007 predictions: It now appears Gordon may start the year with the big club. What should happen: First, I think the idea of trading Teahen should be seriously explored. If we don't get a good offer, then Teahen leans the OF during ST and then starts year at 3rd until June when Gordon is called up

SS
The 2006 crew:

Angel Berroa was the worst regular in baseball last year—stunk at the plate, stunk in the field, stunk on the basepaths. Fortunately he’s signed for the next 2 years for a total of $8 million. The Royals aren’t contending for the division crown, so it won’t kill us to put him back out there, it will just be very painful. Besides, he can’t be worse than he was last year….right?

Down on the Farm:
Andres Blanco has a worse bat (if you can believe it) than Berroa but better glove but he had surgery is probably out until mid year. Angel Sanchez is a bit of an enigma as a lot of people like his tools but hasn’t performed that well. We won’t count on either on of those guys for next year

Other Options:
Craig Counsell and Alex Gonzalez are out on the FA market and either one would be a big upgrade. Counsell is not young but his defense is good and he would probably give us more offensive production than Berroa did last year. Gonzalez defense is supposed to be pretty good he is capable of being a decent offensive player but seems to be somewhat streaky. On the trade front, many Royals fans have long salivated over the idea of trading for the Angels Erick Aybar. I see him almost certainly being moved this offseason—but probably not to us. I have heard the Angels really want to upgrade CF, 3B, 1B. I’m not sure David Dejesus is their kind of player (and it would take more than Aybar for me to give up DDJ) and Gathright is not going to get it done. We are short on 1B already. As for 3B, well read below.

2007 Prediction: Craig Counsell signs a 2 year/ $6million deal. Berroa is one expensive backup What should happen: Erick Aybar

2nd Base
The 2006 Crew:
No position boasts as many option for the Royals as 2nd base. Gold Glover Mark Grudzalanek will be back putting up a 740ish OPS. He could again be very attractive at the trade deadline. Esteban German will probably return to his role as “super sub”. I really hope he gets at least 400 Abs. The other option is he might be traded (how many 2nd basemen are there with an OPS of 880?). Again, I don’t trade him unless I get some good young pitching.

Down on the Farm:

Jeff Keppinger was picked up in a deal with the Mets. He isn’t young but has posted a high batting average everywhere he’s went. He will be nice to have around should the injure bug hit. Donnie Murphy is a longshot for 2007, but I still like this guy in the future.

Other Options: We have more than enough help at 2nd base.

2007 predictions: Grudz and German. What should happen: Grudz should be traded for a decent prospect and German should be our full time second baseman.

1st Base
The 2006 Crew:

Minky won’t be back so I won’t waste much time on him. The Rockies were nice enough to practically give us Ryan Shealy last year. He struggled the first few weeks but brought his OPS up to 789. This year he will be expected to hit with more power and get that OPS up toward at least 850. His defense was surprisingly good.

Down on the Farm:
We got nothin’ in the way of 1st base prospects in the High Minors.

Other Options: my guess is someone like Mark Teahen, or Emil Brown will be the back up 1st baseman if Shealy goes down.

2007 Prediction: Shealy--and that is what should happen.

LF
The 2006 Crew:
Emil Brown and his 815 OPS were more than solid. His defense was better. The guy is solid—but he is due a raise in arbitration and he could be prime trade bait. I think this guy is underrated and should only be traded for value (Juan Gutierrez—HOU prospect).

Down on the Farm:
Does Justin Huber have leprosy? The way he was treated this year you might think so. So first base is not his thing—sounds like things are going well in LF. I’m guessing a pretty safe bet is that one of these two guys will be traded this offseason—perhaps both.

Other Options:
Again, Teahen could end up in LF

2007 Prediction: Emil Brown--Huber traded. What should happen--Brown should be shopped for a pitcher and Huber should start in LF.

The 2006 Crew
David Dejesus had his obligatory injury and then came back got real hot and then cooled off towards the end of the year. Dejesus could go out next year and have an 850 OPS or he could be hurt for 3 months. From all accounts his defense out in CF is decent but Dayton Moore’s first move was to pick up Joey Gathright-who is fast. Unfortunately, he can’t hit, can’t hit for power, and doesn’t get good jumps (unless it’s over a parked car). Gathright has had good OBP in the minors, but I think he is someone whose minor league numbers don’t translate very well to the Big Show. A team like the Marlins could use him. I’ll steal this trade straight from futuregm over on the Scout board: Gathright for Yusmeiro Petit.

Down on the Farm:
Nothing

Other Options:
Not that it is a place of real need but I think Reggie Willits-LAA and Ryan Church-WAS are underrated.

2007 Prediction: Dejesus—Gathright traded--and that is what should happen unless you can pick up Willits or Church on the cheap--in which case-you could trade both CFers (I know a crazy idea)

RF
The 2006 Crew:

Never fight a land war in Asia. Never sign Reggie Sanders in an even year. He didn’t hit and then got injured, landed on the DL where he continued not to hit. Reggie could be trade bait. Perhaps he could go to the Yankees for Carl Pavano—Carl would need to waive his no-trade clause and I have no idea why he would do that to come to KC (unless we guaranteed picking up his 2009 option for $13 million). Of course, the Yankees would need to send us something like $15-25 million (depending on the option situation). Dayton made this kind of trade of Odalis and I like the risk/reward on this. Shane Costa didn’t hit great in 250 ABs but he raked down at Omaha. I am going to pencil in Teahen.

Down on the Farm:
Billy Butler will be hitting the cover off the ball in Omaha but should probably spend the majority of the year in AAA.

Other options:
There was a small rumor that the Royals might be interested in Jose Guillen if they trade Reggie. Jose can be a good player but his attitude is Sheffieldesque-so I would take a pass unless it’s a really good bargain (something like 1 year/$2 million)

2007 Prediction: Teahen with Costa playing second fiddle--if we can trade Teahen then Costa gets a shot to start until Butler is ready.

DH
The 2006 Crew:

Stairs is gone so we now have the indestructible Mike Sweeney as our only full time DH on the roster. Mike missed a lot of time last year, even by his standards. His hitting when he was healthy was also sub-par. But he looks to be here for $11 million next year, so we might as well make the best of it.

Down on the Farm
Other Options:
Nada

2007 Prediction: Sweeney—if healthy could be traded mid-year. What should happen--perhaps Sweeney can be traded and someone like Piazza could DH for us.

Starting Pitching
The 2006 Crew:

Runelvys Hernandez was awful with an occasion good start. Redman, Elarton and Mays were predictably not good. Luke Hudson emerged as “reliable” in the sense that he was better than anything else we had. Odalis Perez was picked up in a good high reward trade. Zack Greinke battled back from his issues to pitch pretty well at AA. Jorge De La Rosa couldn’t control his pitches. The starting rotation was and is a mess.

Down on the Farm:
Tyler Lumsden and Luke Hochevar cannot be counted on for next year. As I mentioned Zach Greinke showed he deserves a shot at the rotation come spring.

Other Options:
Let’s start with trade options: We could always pick up overpaid vets like Jarrod Washburn or Carl Pavano—they could probably be had fairly cheap in terms of talent to give up, if we were willing to take on salary. Young pitching is just about the hardest thing to find on the trade market. Perhaps the Twins will trade someone like Scott Baker, but I don’t think they will do it within the division. Baltimore might be willing to trade Hayden Penn, but I’m not sure Justin Huber or Emil Brown would be enough to get it done (but they are Baltimore). There were some whispers that Paul Maholm might be available in Pittsburgh—he would be a good pickup. As I mentioned above, I would like to go after Ervin Santana—but I think I’ll do a whole post devoted to that.

The FA market is flush with #3/#4 starters. We start with the conviction that none of the top guys will sign with us. Below are some guys in our range (maybe). I cut and paste some stats that Georgia Royals was kind enough to provide on a message board. I also estimate what it would take to sign them.

Ted Lilly (30 years old) 15-13, 4.31 ERA in 32 games (181.1 innings). 1.43 whip, .254 obaa. 4 yrs/$40 million

Vincente Padilla (29 years old) 15-10, 4.50 ERA in 200ip, 1.38 WHIP 4yrs/$36 million

Gil Meche (28 years old) 11-8, 4.46 ERA in 32 games (186.2 innings). 1.43 whip, .256 obaa. Made $3.7 M in '06. 3 yrs/$27 millionAdam Eaton (28 years old) 7-4, 5.12 ERA in 13 games (65.0 innings). 1.57 whip, .299 obaa. $4.65 M in '06. 3yrs/$25 million

Randy Wolf (30 years old) 4-0, 5.56 ERA in 12 games (56.2 innings). 1.69 whip, .285 obaa. 3 yrs/$21 million

Tomo Ohka (30 years old) 4-5, 4.82 ERA in 18 games (97.0 innings). 1.37 whip, .266 obaa. 2yrs/$15 million

John Thomson (33 years old) 2-7, 4.82 ERA in 18 games (80.1 innings). 1.56 whip, .295 obaa. 2 yr/ $12 million

Tony Armas (28 years old) 9-12, 5.03 ERA in 30 games (154.0 innings). 1.50 whip, .279 obaa. 2 yr/$12 million

Jeff Weaver (30 years old) 3yrs/$27 million

Bruce Chen (29 years old) 1 yr/$4million

Looking at that list, I would go after Adam Eaton (Randy Wolf is my backup plan) and then try to pick Chen up cheap.

2007 Predictions: Eaton, Perez, Hudson, Chen, Greinke. What should happen: Ervin Santana, Eaton, Perez, Hudson, Greinke.

Relief Pitchers
The 2006 crew:

Jimmy Gobble, Todd Wellermeyer, Joel Peralta and Joe Nelson have earned a shot in the pen next year. Youngsters Ambiriox Burgos, Andy Sisco, and Ryan Braun will have to earn a shot. Someone like Jorge De La Rosa could be sent to the pen if he doesn’t cut it as a starter.

Down on the Farm:
Ryan Braun had some great numbers, can he translate those to the big show? Leo Nunez has some great stuff but may need a little more time in Omaha.

Other options:
There are always a slew of options out there to trade for. Signing a guy like David Riske would be a smart move. The Royals also picked up Ken Ray on waivers from the Braves

2007 prediction:Gobble, Wellermeyer, Nelson, Braun, Peralta, Ray and Riske? with Sisco and Burgos figuring things out in AAA--and that is what I think should happen too.

I'll follow up with a post showing my "predicted" team as well as "my" plan...

The "Right" Stuff

2006-11-10T22:15:00.000-05:00

This entry will focus on the right handed starters that the Royals have throughout the system. About the only one worth mentioning from the ORoyals is right hander Danny Tamayo. Fellow 2001 draftee Angel Sanchez beat Tamayo to the majors with his 2006 September call up. The only other guy from the 2001 draft that could eventually get to KC is Devon Lowery, who had regained his stock a little of late. Tamayo saw limited action in 2006. I don't know this for sure, but I'd guess he was set back by injury. He was 3-2 with an ERA of 4.21 in 7 games (3 starts) for Omaha. Again, barely worth mentioning at all.

The only right handed starter worth mentioning from the Wranglers (since Zach Greinke isn't really a "prospect" anymore since losing his rookie status) is 23 year old Billy Buckner. Buckner appears to be a ground ball pitcher. He averaged 2.28 ground outs per fly out in '06, which undoubtedly led to his success while with the Mavericks. He began the season in High Desert and ended in Wichita where he made 13 starts for the Wranglers. In those 13 starts, he was 5-3, 4.64 in 75.2 innings. His opponents batting average was .265. He needs to cut down on his walks. He averaged 1.62 K/BB and sported a whip of 1.55 despite allowing about a hit per inning. In 2006, Buckner was averaging about 5 walks per 9 innings. He ended the season with two straight scoreless outings.

I thought there were a couple of guys worthy of note from the Mavericks in 2006, and one of them ended the season with an ERA of over 7.00 in 26 starts! Luis Cota is that guy. Cota is 21 years old and was signed by the Royals as a draft and follow out of the 2003 draft. He was signed just before the 2004 draft. On the whole, Cota was 5-11, 7.09 in 132.0 IP in '06. Blah! His opponents batting average was .290 and his whip was 1.64. He produces slightly more ground outs than fly outs at 1.09 ground outs per fly out. He allowed 19 dingers this season which translates to 1 about every 7 innings. This is a bit high. Usually 1 HR per 10 innings is considered acceptable. Of the 19 homers allowed, though, 12 were allowed at home. Here's where it really gets interesting. His HR/9 inning average was 1.67 at home and 0.94 on the road. His OPS against average at home was .940 vs. .797 on the road. His opponents were hitting .317 against him at home, but only .265 on the road. His H/9 average was much better on the road in 2006. So, the numbers look much better under the microscope and I look for this 21 year old right hander to put up some very strong numbers while in the Wichita rotation in 2007. The other Maverick worthy of mention is Kyle Crist. Crist is a 23 year old, 6'3" right hander that was a 34th round pick of the Royals in 2004. Crist has good velocity from what I've read (93-95 neighborhood) and has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for the Royals. Crist was 5-2, 4.15 in 15 starts for the Mavs. He's a ground ball pitcher, who produced twice as many ground ball outs than fly outs in '06. Of the 6 homers Kyle allowed this season, 5 of them were at home, but his overall numbers don't appear to be skewed very much like Cota's were.

The Bees had some very strong pitching in 2006 and they were led by the big three of Carlos Rosa (minor league pitcher of the year), Chris Nicoll and Matt Kniginyzky (Na-gin-skee, I think). 21 year old Carlos Rosa was 8-6, 2.53 in 24 starts with the Bees. His opponents hit only .239 against him. He keeps it in the park. He allowed a homer every 23 innings. He got 11.1 innings in HD to end 2006, and will likely begin 2007 in Wilmington. Rosa was obtained by the Royals as a non drafted free agent out of the Dominican in 2001. Rosa reached America as a 17 year old in 2002. He was the Royals 15th best prosepect a few years back before missing the majority of the '04 season due to injury. Chris Nicoll is a 23 year old 3rd rounder in the '05 draft. Nicoll turned in an excellent first full season as a pro. He was 4-9 (and a special thanks goes out to the Bees bats for that one) with an ERA of 2.82 in 23 starts. His last three starts of the season came in a High Desert uniform. His numbers for the Bees were very solid. His whip was 1.08, 7.05 H/9, opponents batting average against was a paltry .210. He should be in Wilmington in 2007 and should do very well in the pitcher friendly Carolina League. Kniginyzky is the oldest of the three at 24 years of age. He was acqired by the Royals as a 23rd rounder in the '05 draft. He was 9-5, 3.51 in 23 starts and his opponents hit only .255 against him. He allowed a homer every 8 innings although the ratio of ground ball outs to fly ball outs suggest that he's a slight ground ball pitcher. Erik Cordier is a legit prospect. He was drafted early in the 2004 draft, but has suffered some injury problems. 2007 will have him on the shelf after Tommy John surgery. As a 20 year old, Erik was 4-1 with an ERA of 2.91 in 10 combined starts for the Bees and Chukars. Luke Hochevar was the number 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft when the Royals passed up on Andrew Miller in favor of Luke, who had held out after being picked by the Dodgers in the 2005 draft. Hochevar was 0-1, 1.17 in 4 starts for the Bees. He held his opponents to a .148 batting average while striking out 16 in 15.1 innings and only walking 2. He is currently on the shelf resting his arm after experiencing some tenderness while pitching in the Arizona Fall League. He'll probably start 2007 in Wichita, and will probably be in KC some time during the season. Daniel Cortes was acquired by Dayton Moore from the White Sox in the Mike MacDougal trade last year. Cortes will not turn 20 until March. Before the trade, Cortes was 3-9 with a 4.01 ERA in 107.2 innings for Kannapolis of the SAL. After the trade, he was 1-2, 6.69 for the Bees in the Midwest League (both are A ball). Combined, he was 4-11, 4.67 in 26 starts. His opponents batting average was .266 , his K:BB ratio was 2.29, and his K rate was 7.95 K's per 9 innings. His whip was 1.43 on the season. He's a young kid, and hopefully he was just adjusting to getting traded and such. I'd expect him to be in Wilmington in 2007.

The Chukars had some very solid right handed starters this past season. Blake Wood was a surprise 3rd round pick of the Royals in the 2006 draft out of Georgia Tech. He did put up a very solid debut in professional ball. He was 3-1, 4.50 in 52 innings. He struck out three times as many as he walked and his whip was 1.25. On the road, he was 2-1, 4.08 with a whip of 1.05. His K rate was better on the road as well as his K/BB rate, which was 4.00. Look for him in Burlington to begin the '07 season. Harold Mozingo was considered a steal in the 6th round of this year's draft, but went on to post a 3-1 record with a 6.17 ERA for the Chukars. This one, like Luis Cota, needed the microscope. His obaa at home was .361, but only .236 on the road. His home whip was 2.01, while his road whip was 1.19. The difference in OPS was staggering. He allowed an OPS of 1.051 at home, but only .657 on the road. He walked far fewer on the road and gave up half as many homers on the road. He'll be in the pitcher friendly Midwest League in 2007, so look for him to put up some great numbers. Jason Godin only pitched in 6 games for the Chukars and started 4 of them. However, I don't think his future with the club is as a starter. He was 0-1, 2.49 in his 6 games this year. As a starter, he was 0-1, 2.93 in 15.1 innings. He was a 5th rounder in '06. Josh Cribb struggled mightily in his pro debut posting record of 2-6 with a 5.19 ERA. Perhaps he'll bounce back while in Burlington next year. Tyler Chambliss (11th rounder in '06) was 4-3, 4.20 in 12 games (6 starts) for the Chukars. He was 3-1, 3.41 as a starter with a whip of 1.10 and a .223 obaa. He allowed 1 HR in 29 innings as a starter.

In Arizona, Paul Raglione was 3-0, 3.11 ERA in 10 games (7 starts). He averaged 2.5 ground outs per fly out in '06. Paul will turn 20 in January. He struck out 48 batters in 46.1 innings of work. He had a K/BB raio of almost 5.00 (48 K's, 10 BB's), and he only allowed 1 HR. Henry Arias put up some good numbers for AZ. He was 4-5 with an ERA of 3.59. He allowed fewer hits than IP, and only allowed 1 HR in 57 innings.

If I was going to rank the right handed starters that have pitched above rookie ball, I'd probably do something like this:

1. Luke Hochevar (Wichita)
2. Carlos Rosa (Wilmington)
3. Luis Cota (Wichita)
4. Billy Buckner (Omaha)
5. Eric Cordier (out for '07)
6. Chris Nicoll (Wilmington)
7. Daniel Cortes (Burlington or Wilminton)
8. Matt Kniginysky (Wilmington)
9. Kyle Crist (Wilmington or Wichita)
10. Danny Tamayo (Omaha)

Who's the next Beltran?

2006-11-05T11:52:00.000-05:00

The centerfield position has become a pretty solid position for the Royals. Between David DeJesus and Joey Gathright, the Royals should be able to have quality centerfield play for at least the next 5 years. The main question is whether or not Gathright will hit enough to become an everyday player. DeJesus is an average to slightly above-average defender in the outfield. He’s an above-average hitter as a centerfielder and a fringe average hitter as a left fielder. So, unless Gathright improves his production offensively, I think DeJesus will eventually move back to center, especially with Teahen, Huber, Lubanski and maybe Butler become options as corner outfielders. The Royals’ corner outfield depth is much stronger than there centerfielder depth, so having two good options for centerfielders is crucial.

High Minors:

The Royals don’t really have any CF prospects at AAA. Chad Allen is the only outfielder listed on the Omaha Royals roster at the moment, and he isn’t a centerfielder. Mitch Maier is the Royals’ best centerfield prospect. Maier is a solid player all-around, with at average to above-average power, speed, and defense in centerfield. Maier’s strong arm will allow him to play all three outfield positions, which should make him at least a good fourth outfielder. Overall, Maier had a good season, hitting .306/.357/.473 with 35 2Bs and 13 HRs. He’ll likely start at Omaha and could work his way on to the big league club at some point during this season.

Low Minors:

The Royals don’t have any CF prospects at High Desert or Burlington.

Rookie Ball:

Dickerson has put together two nice seasons in a row. Dickerson hit 14 doubles and 7 HRs in 242 ABs for Idaho Falls. His overall line of .281/.338/.789 is pretty good overall. As a rookie, Dickerson hit .294/.371/.491, so he has a pretty solid track record going. His defense is supposed to be his best asset and he should develop modest power with time. Dickerson will likely start at Burlington next year.

Derrick Robinson was the Royals’ 4th round pick this season. He turned down a football scholarship to sign with the Royals. His pro debut was very lackluster, hitting just .233/.335/.318. Robinson’s speed is phenomenal and he stole 20 bases, but also got caught 14 times. If he can learn how to get on-base regularly, he might have a chance to use his speed in the big leagues.

Overall: The Royals are in good shape in centerfield. DeJesus should be a solid player for several years and the Royals have good depth overall. There aren't any Damon or Beltran-like talents on the way, but no one is complaining with DeJesus in centerfield.

Future Royal Right Fielders

2006-11-02T19:02:00.000-05:00

It seems to be a trend--the Royals have one blue-chip prospect at a positition and not much else. The good news is that it seems possible that Butler will stay in RF which would definitely be a big plus.

Right Field

Omaha--Chad Allen
Chad will be 32 in February—not exactly prime prospect age. He had an 861 OPS at Omaha and seems like a good guy to have down at AAA should you need an emergency outfielder.

Wichita—Billy Butler
Billy was 20 last year and tore up AA to the tune of 331/388/499. He is probably the best pure hitter in the minors. That doesn’t mean he is perfect. His ops vs. lefties was 1246! But vs. righties was 807. While you can’t complain about the batting average, his walk rate suffered last year. His power was also not what you would expect—slugging under 500. However, Butler is such a professional hitter, I think he will improve those numbers in AAA in 2007. I also think he was working more on his defense to where his hitting suffered some.

A scout once called Butler “the worst defensive player he’s ever seen” (this was before the move to RF). I’ve only seen some tape of him in RF and while I wouldn’t call him graceful, he seems passable and he’s gotten better. He’s also got a heck of an arm.

Butler should start the year in AAA and I would expect him to destroy the pitching there for a few months and probably get called up after the All-Star Break

High Desert—Brian McFall
McFall was a 3rd round pick a few years ago. He had a 769 OPS at High Desert—933 at home, 612 on the road. He had 30 walks and 120 K’s. He’s playing the Hawaiian Baseball League and got a 618 OPS there. A suspect, not a prospect.

Burlington—Carlos Arroyo
25 year old in Low-A with a 666 ops-next!

High Desert—OD Gonzalez
OD (Oscar) was a 23rd round draft choice back in 04. He’s 22 and had a 769 OPS. Not great but we’ll keep an eye on how he does in Burlington this year.

AZ Royals-Nick Van Stratten
Nick was a 10th round pick from the St. Louis area and had a good debut. He played most of his games in Arizona before getting a cup of coffee in Idaho. Overall, he had a 819 OPS. He is supposed to be athletic and projects well and is already being called a steal from the 10th round. He’s 21 and will probably start next year in Burlington.

Rank ‘em
Butler
Van Stratten
Gonzalez
McFall
Allen
Arroyo

Out in Left Field

2006-10-26T11:27:00.000-04:00

For the Royals, Emil Brown and David DeJesus split left field duty in 2006. Brown started 84 games in left and batted .287 with 15 HR and 81 RBI. Emil's OPS was .815. DeJesus batted .295 with 8 HR and 56 RBI and an .810 OPS. Brown is arbitration eligible after making $1.775 M in 2006. He will be due another big raise for 2007. The Royals could use Brown as trade bait to try to land some pitching help. DeJesus has been a center fielder to this point in his career, but switched to left field for 60 games to make room for Joey Gathright to play center. It is kind of up in the air as to what will happen with the Royals outfield over the winter. There could be some moves made on the major league level or some of the minor league guys could be packaged and dealt.

Omaha Royals (AAA)
24 year old, Justin Huber, started 68 games in left field for the Omaha Royals in 2006. Justin's season has already been discussed as a first baseman, but I'll leave this in anyway. Huber was acquired by the Royals on July 30, 2004 in the deal that sent Kris Benson from Pittsburgh to the Mets. When we acquired Huber, he was catching. In fact, he was injured in his last game in the Mets organization at a play at the plate, which caused him to miss the remainder of the 2004 season after the trade. The Royals moved Huber out from behind the dish to 1B. Huber started 38 games at 1B for the ORoyals in 2006 before moving out to left field. Huber put up pretty decent AAA numbers. He batted .278 with 15 HR and 44 RBI in 352 at bats. His 2006 OPS was .838 (.480 slugging %). The Royals brought Huber to KC during the summer where he sat the bench. I'm not sure exactly how long Huber was on the 25 man roster this year, but I think it was about two weeks. During that time, Huber accumulated a total of 10 at bats. He was 2 for 10 with a double. He's a good offensive prospect. The Royals just need to find a place for him to play in the field.

Wichita Wranglers (AA)
Chris Lubanski (21 years old) started 108 games in left field for the Wranglers in 2006. Lubanksi was drafted by the Royals in the 1st round (5th overall) in the 2003 draft. He was drafted out of a Pennsylvania high school and signed on June 6th. Overall, Lubanski batted .282 with 15 HR and 70 RBI for the Wranglers with an OPS of .844. He also stole 11 bases in 18 attempts. Lubanski walked 72 times this season, which was tied for the team lead. Up until the 2006 season, Chris had a K:BB ratio of 2.90. In 2006, he did a much better job with a K/BB ratio of 1.56. Lubanski did improve as the season went on, as well. From July 1 to the end of the season, Lubanski hit .314 with 10 HR. His K/BB ratio also improved from July 1 on. During that time span, Lubanski had 1.27 K's per BB (47 K's, 37 BB's). When Lubanski was drafted, he was described as having blazing speed. Now, it appears he has slowed down a few ticks although he did lead the team with 11 triples, but his power numbers have improved. It is a very good sign that he is improving his K/BB ratio.

High Desert Mavericks (Advanced A)
The Mavs had two guys to get significant starts in left field, but neither is a prospect. James Tomlin (24 years old) started 58 games in left and batted .301 and a .762 OPS for the Mavs in '06. Geraldo Valentin(23 years old) signed with the Royals as a non drafted free agent in 2003. Valentin started in left for the Mavs 47 times and batted .283 with an OPS of .718 in 406 ABs. I'd hate to think how bad the offensive numbers would be if they hadn't been in High Desert.

Burlington Bees (Low A)
Ethian Santana was the primary left fielder for the Bees in 2006. He started 67 games for the Bees and batted .244 with an OPS of .615 in 312 at bats. He has stolen 20+ bases in each of the last three seasons since being drafted. Santana was drafted by the Astros in the 2002 and 2003 drafts, but signed with KC after being drafted in the 22nd round of the 2004 draft. Santana was a Pioneer league all star last season after batting .300 with an OPS of .813 for the Chukars. He did bat .286 in his last 35 games of the season from August 1 until the end of the season. I wouldn't call him a prospect, though. He is 22 years old, but he'll need to do more with the bat than a .615 OPS in low A ball to be considered a prospect.

Idaho Falls Chukars (Advanced Rookie Ball- short season)
Brett Bigler and Alvi Morel split duty in left field for the Chukars in '06. Both are 22 years old. Bigler was a 7th round draft pick in the 2006 draft out of UC-Riverside. His game is high OBP and speed. He came as advertised. He batted .276, but had an OBP of .392 on the season. He appears to be a slap hitter. Of his 58 hits, only 5 were for extra bases (all doubles). He stole 20 bases in 22 attempts for the Chukars, and he struck out 8 fewer times than he walked (27 K's, 39 BB's). His OPS on the year was only .692, due in most part to his pretty sad slugging percentage of .300. I like him, though. I like the fact that he's got fantastic speed and his got a great eye and doesn't strike out much. Alvi Morel was signed by the Royals as a non drafted free agent on 11/8/02 out of the Dominican as an 18 year old (I'm guessing we thought he was 16 at the time). Morel started 41 games in left for Idaho Falls, and batted .301 with 1 HR and an OPS of .757. The vast majority of his at bats were from the leadoff spot.

Arizona Royals (Rookie Ball-short season)
The left fielders for the AZ Royals were Jarrod Dyson (50th rounder in the 2006 draft) and Nick Francis (15th rounder in '06). Nick posted a good batting average (.303) and OBP (.366) in his professional debut. He ended the season with an OPS of .792 in 155 ABs. Dyson batted .273 in 161 at bats, but appears to be a burner. He stole 19 bases in 23 attempts this season. He seems to keep the ball in play (18 walks and 30 strikeouts). His OBP was .373, but his slugging percentage was a paltry .373.

The Royals seem to be stockpiling some speedy left fielders in the minor league system. Dyson, Bigler, Santana, and even Lubanski all run very well. In terms of who brings the most to the table, I'd rank the Royals left fielders in this way:
1. Chris Lubanski -mix of power and speed.
2. Justin Huber-good bat, but no real position, yet. DH?
3. Brett Bigler-I liked this guy from the draft. A good batting eye and speed don't slump.
4. Nick Francis-barely worth ranking at this point. Put up decent numbers in pro debut.
5. Ethian Santana-didn't hit in the pitcher friendly Midwest League. He'll need to hit at least in the .270's with an OPS of around .750 to contribute much.

First Base Rankings

2006-10-24T12:33:00.000-04:00

I have heard on numerous occasions people talk about the glut of 1st baseman the Royals. Quite simply there is no glut. People just assumed that you could pencil in Huber, Butler, Teahen in there. Well Dayton smartly went out and got Ryan Shealy. He should be an league average firstbaseman for the next few years. It’s a good thing because the Royals have very little depth in the minors. Of course, the good news is that you shift people to play first easily.

Omaha:
Justin Huber—Huber is no longer a firstbaseman but the Royals don’t have a lot of first base prospects and I wanted to write about someone good. Whoever is writing about LF can feature Huber again.

I still like Huber. I think he can be a good LF-perhaps even an above average LFer. Just a year ago, this guy hit 343/432/570 in the Texas league. I fear that Dayton is not as high on this guy and may trade him for something less valuable. Huber got off to a blistering start, was called up to ride the bench and then got sent down where he went into an awful slump, got hurt and then rebounded to have an 838 OPS. He certainly seems to have no future with this club as it is expected that Mark Teahen will move to LF. Huber could definitely come in handy when Mike Sweeney get hurts.

If Dayton is going to trade him, I would want someone like Erik Aybar or Hayden Penn.

Wichita:
Kila Kaaihue—I really likedKila coming into the year—coming off his 925 OPS at High Desert. Sure it would drop some as he entered more sane hitting environments. But Kila’s OPS this year was 602. Ouch. He was a little better after the All Star break by having an 787 OPS—still nothing to write home about from a firstbaseman. Perhaps he will move to Omaha and try to regain the plate discipline that helped him look like a poor man’s Nick Johnson.

High Desert:
Mike Stodolka—the #4 pick in the 2000 draft moved from the mound to the batters’ box with decent results. He posted an 845 OPS. He also has hit well in 30 AB’s in the Hawaian Baseball League, posting a 1033 OPS. Of course being a 25 year old first baseman in the Cal League puts those numbers in perspective. He had a 911 OPS at home and 778 on the road. Stodolka is a nice story but not much of a prospect.

Burlington:
Miguel Vega has got good power and that’s about it. He had a 271 OBP. That is Berroa-esqe. He had 13 walks and 121 K’s. Vega was a 4th round pick a few years ago, but will probably get eaten alive in Wilmington this year.

Short Season Clubs:
Scott Lucas, Carlos Avila, and Jase Turner played 1st for our Short Season Clubs—none of them look like they are prospects.

Rankings:
Huber
Kaaihue
Stodolka
Vega
Avila
Lucas/Turner

What's on Second

2006-10-19T23:20:00.000-04:00

The Royals have gone through a never-ending carousel of second basemen since heralded prospect Carlos Febles disappeared. Since Febles left, the Royals have struggled to find a regular second basemen and the Royals cycled through a variety of prospects and utility infielders looking for a solution. Ruben Gotay and Donnie Murphy were considered the second basemen of the future, but they weren’t ready for full-time duty in 2005.

Last season, Allard signed Mark Grudzielanek to a one-year deal and the signing turned out to be his best signing of the offseason and one of the few bright spots in his horrible tenure as general manager. Grudzielanek was the Royals’ most consistent defender, helping to alleviate the damage caused by his teammate on the other side of second. Grudzielanek led the team in hits and had 43 extra base hits. The Royals resigned Grudzielanek for 2007 season, so the second base position is good shape.

Baird also acquired Esteban German from the Rangers in exchange for the Royals’ Rule V Pick last season. German turned out to be one of the bright spots in the Royals’ 2006 season, posting a team-high .880 OPS. German is an on-base machine with very good speed. German would allow the Royals to move DeJesus into the #2 spot in the lineup and have an excellent tandem of speed and on-base ability at the top of the lineup. That should set the stage for plenty of RBI opportunities for Butler, Gordon, Shealy, and Teahen over the next few years.

As you may have noticed, I haven’t talked about the minor league second basemen much and that’s because there’s not much to talk about. The Royals’ top second base prospect is Donnie Murphy. Murphy showed pretty good power this season at AA, hitting 25 doubles and 14 HRs. However, he drew just 19 walks in 366 ABs, so his plate discipline has a ways to go. Murphy is a pretty good defender, with above-average range for second. Murphy hits righties much better than lefties, with a .786 OPS against righties vs. a .531 OPS against lefties.

The Royals other option near the majors is Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger had a nice season for Omaha, hitting .354/.407/.465 in 127 ABs. Keppinger hit .267/.323/.400 in 60 ABs with the big league club. He's 26 years old, so he isn't much of a prospect at this point.

Wilver Perez was the Mavericks’ second basemen. Perez hit .262/.343/.350 in 351 ABs. Perez is 23 years old, so he’s a bit too old for High A ball. He is most likely an organizational player at this point.

Josh Johnson was the Royals’ third round pick in the 2004 draft and Burlington’s second basemen this season. Johnson hit .241/.391/.312 in 381 ABs and walked 93 times! He showed good speed, swiping 18 bases in 27 attempts. Johnson’s defense improved from 2005, making just 10 errors in 2006. Johnson is a decent sleeper prospect and might develop into a decent leadoff hitter with his excellent plate discipline and good speed.

Kurt Mertins had a nice professional debut. The 20-year-old from the College of Desert hit .342/.397/.431. Mertins also stole 26 bases in 30 attempts (only played in 61 games). Mertins might be worth watching for the same reasons as Johnson.

Marc Maddox was another collegiate second basemen drafted by the Royals this season. Maddox hit .336/.428/.504 in 232 ABs. Maddox showed more power than Mertins, with 29 extra base hits in 62 games.

Overall, the Royals have some depth at second base. The Royals already have a quality starting second basemen in Mark Grudzielanek and a solid player waiting to take over after the 2007 season in Esteban German. This should give the Royals an opportunity to add some more high-ceiling talent at second base. The Royals don’t have any standout prospects at second base, but have some young players who could emerge as second base prospects over the next few years.

The Long and "Short" of it

2006-10-17T21:49:00.000-04:00

On January 8, 2001, the Royals traded Johnny Damon to the A’s and received their shortstop of the future in Angel Berroa. The Royals also traded current A’s second baseman, Mark Ellis and received AJ Hinch and Roberto Hernandez. The Royals thought they were getting a 19 year old who was named an Arizona League All Star in 2000 while playing for the Arizona A’s and even logged 17 at bats in AA Midland. As it turned out, Angel was really two years older than the Royals thought. He made is Major League debut as a 22 year old on September 18, 2001. He won the AL Rookie of the year award after his 2003 season. He batted .287 with 17 HR and 73 RBI. He also stole 21 bases. His OPS has dropped each season since 2003 and he posted a sub .600 OPS in 2006. Angel has become known for his mental lapses and his reckless abandon at bat. He committed a career low 18 errors in 2006, and had a fielding percentage of .969. He is our current shortstop. He signed a 4 year/$11 million deal in May of 2004. He is due $3.25 M in 2007 and $4.75 M in 2008. The Royals hold a $5.5 M option for 2009 or could opt to buy the contract out at $500 K. So, with Angel under contract for the next two seasons, it is more than likely his job. Dayton could attempt to move him, but I’m guessing the list of suitors for a 29 year old SS with a sub .600 OPS and an $8 M price tag over the next two years is pretty short, if it exists at all. Anyway, here are the footsteps that Angel is currently hearing.

Andres Blanco and Angel Sanchez (11th rounder in ‘01) are the two prospects the Royals have that have already spent some time in Kansas City. Blanco, who will be turning 23 in April of 2007, has already notched 226 major league at bats. He signed as a non drafted free agent out of Venezuela on 8/20/00 as a 16 year old. He then moved very quickly through the system, despite posting very low offensive numbers at every stop. He made his major league debut in 2004 as a 20 year old. In just under 1,400 minor league at bats, Andres has hit .247 with 6 HR and 106 RBI. He has a career .625 minor league OPS. Due to his lack of any kind of offensive production, I’ve always been a little leary of Blanco. He is regarded as a better defensive SS than Berroa, but his offense is not there (although, at the rate Berroa is going, Angel will catch Andres, soon). I view Blanco as a Rey Sanchez, except not as good of a hitter. He’s a slap hitter who’s good with the glove. In 87 Abs with the Royals this season, he batted .241 with an OPS of .600.

Angel Sanchez is 23 years old and just finished 2006 in Wichita. He has posted much better offensive numbers than Blanco. Sanchez batted .282 with 4 HR and 57 RBI last season for the Wranglers. His OPS was .691 (.339 OBP). He is also regarded as an advanced defensive player. Blanco and Sanchez may split time in Omaha in 2007 between SS and 2B, unless Berroa is moved over the winter. Sanchez made his major league debut this season and batted .222 with an OPS of .436 in 27 Abs.

At the lower levels, the Royals SS prospects include Irving Falu (Mavericks), Chris McConnell (Burlington/Idaho Falls), and Jeff Bianchi (AZ Royals). There are some other names down there, but I don’t know any of them to be prospects. Michael Gaffney started 18 games at SS for the Mavericks this season. He will be 25 next season. Gilbert Gil started 17 games at SS for the Chukars in ‘06 and has one of the best names ever! Good ole Gil Gil (Gil2). He’s 21, but didn’t put up very good numbers. He hit .223 in 103 Abs, but the name made him worth talking about. Manual Juan is a player out of the Dominican. He might be the best of the rest. He is 19 years old and batted .271 with 3 HR and 27 RBI for the AZ Royals. His OPS was only .709, so nothing that is too special. There’s a "17" year old kid playing on the Dominican Summer League team. He batted .296 with 39 walks and 31 K’s. He posted an OPS of .804 with 15 stolen bases. Who knows if his age will change later or if they’ve got the age thing all figured out, yet.

Irving Falu (21st rounder in ‘03) batted .299 with 3 HR and 49 RBI for the Mavericks in ‘06. He stole more than 30 bases in a season for the second straight season. He posted an OPS of .737 this season. Whenever a guy plays at High Desert, you have to take a look at the splits (thankfully, that is the last year of that). Irving looks as though he definitely benefitted from being in High Desert. At home, he batted .344 with a .450 SLG and an OPS of .838. On the road, he batted .256 with a .320 SLG and an OPS of .638. During the month of August, Falu batted .398 in 123 Abs with an OPS of .948. On the whole, the numbers look good, but under the microscope, there are some question marks, there.

Chris McConnell (9th rounder in ‘04) had a rough go in 2006. The 20 year old began the year in Burlington and struggled mightily while with the Bees. He hit only .172 with a .455 OPS in 239 Abs. When Idaho Falls began play, McConnell was moved to the Pioneer League to play for the Chukars where he was an All Star in ‘05. Things got better, but it was not a return to the way things were. He hit .262 with 4 HR and 35 RBI for the Chukars over the summer. I imagine, he’ll return to Burlington in ‘07 (perhaps Wilmington if Bianchi is ready for Burlington) and try to answer some of the questions about what the Royals really have in him.

Jeff Bianchi (2nd rounder in ‘05) has accumulated 140 Abs with the AZ Royals over the past two seasons. He has a batting average of .414 and has an OPS of 1.221. He’s just having a hard time staying healthy. It appears that the Royals have something pretty special, here, but we’ll have to wait to see just how special. It was thought that he was an overdraft as a 2nd rounder, but he quickly hushed the critics by becoming a league All Star the summer after being drafted. He was limited to just 98 Abs that summer due to injury. He had 42 Abs in 2006.

Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Jeff Bianchi (just turned 20 years old). Jeff has the best chance to be an impact major leaguer, but must stay healthy. I’d think the best case scenario still has him in KC no earlier than 2010. 2007 team...Burlington (if healthy)

2. Angel Sanchez (just turned 23 years old). I’d guess that Sanchez would project as a .250ish hitter in the majors with 4 or 5 HR. OPS would be in the range of .685. 2007 team...Omaha.

3. Irving Falu (23 years old). Irving has some good speed. His splits are very skewed, so I’m not sure what to expect, and he’s too far away from the majors to do much projection to the majors. I’d expect him to hit in the neighborhood of .260 next year in Wichita. 2007 team...Wichita.

4. Andres Blanco (23 years old). Those of you that know me know that I am not high on Blanco. He is a career .247 hitter in the minors with an OPS of .625. If he’s going to follow the same career path as Omar Vizquel, we’ll have to wait about 4 or 5 more years to see anything with the bat. 2007 team...Omaha/KC

5. Chris McConnell (20 years old). Chris is a big question mark right now. Is he the .330 hitter that was in Idaho Falls in ‘05 or the .170 hitter that was in Burlington in ‘06? 2007 will help answer many questions that face McConnell. I’ll stick him at the bottom until he does something else. 2007 team...Wilmington.

Third Base on the farm

2006-10-16T15:11:00.000-04:00

I get to look at who we’ve got in the pipeline at third base.

Omaha:
Rick Bell and Mike Coolbaugh split time playing 3rd at Omaha. This is exactly the thing I hope Dayton Moore never uses AAA for—holding on to bad players with no upside.

High Desert:
Ed Lucas was an 8th round pick in 2004 from Dartmouth. As a 25 year old in High-A, he hit 281/349/409/ in the hitter friendly confines that are the California League (his OPS at home was 890). Not a prospect at this point—just organizational filler.

Burlington:
Mario Lisson is an interesting guy. I picked him for a breakout last season. But he repeated Burlington and had almost the exact same season
2005 OPS—794
2006 OPS---789
He also stole 41 out of 52 bases. He was 22 last season and Burlington is tough ballpark for hitters. Not a great prospect and life won’t get any easier playing at Wilmington next year. But he has some tool and is worth keeping tabs on.

Idaho Falls:
Luis Catillo had a great year in limited AB’s for the Chukars. He had a 1025 OPS. On the negative side, he will be 23 soon. Organizational player.

Surprise Royals:
Jason Taylor was our 2nd round pick in last year’s draft. Many thought he would be drafted in later rounds. But the reports are that the Royals loved his athleticism and his bat. Some observers have questioned how athletic Taylor really is. He certainly didn’t stand out in his pro-ball debut. His OPS was 699 in 151 ABs. He was ranked as the 9th best prospect in Baseball America’s Arizona League Prospect rankings.

Wichita:
Oh, I forgot one guy. Of course the only reason it doesn’t really matter what these guys did is because of the fact that the BA Minor League POY was down at Wichita. Alex Gordon is the best prospect in baseball. He hit 325/427/588 and stole 22 out of 25 bases for good measure. He played good, sometimes great defense. His numbers would have been even better had he not had a nagging injury for about 5 weeks in May/June. His post All-Star break numbers were sick as he hit: 346/448/658. Think Scott Rolen, thinkMark Texeira, think of the Royals having a franchise player. The time is quickly approaching where the Royals will have to decide what to do with Mark Teahen (all signs point to a move towards OF).

Ranked:
Gordon
--BIG GAP--
Lisson
Taylor
Lucas
Castillo

Catching Down on the Farm

2006-10-13T23:58:00.000-04:00

Over the next few weeks, the Daily Lancer team will be doing an in-depth analysis of the Royals' minor league talent at each position. We'll let you know where the Royals' best depth and talent lies and how soon the Royals' prospects will make an impact on the big league club.

We begin with probably the weakest position in the farm system, catching. John Buck's lackluster performance over the past two seasons has made the catching position an increasing concern. Buck finished the season with an OPS of .702, a slight 26 point improvement over 2005. He's a solid defender behind the plate, which helps compensate for his weakness at the plate. He's the catcher of the future because the Royals simply don't have any better options in the minors.

Near the Majors: We begin our look at the minors with Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman. Paul Phillips has already seen some big league action, with 137 career at-bats and an unimpressive .270/.279/.380 line. He's walked just once in 137 at-bats, contributing to his low OPS. Matt Tupman's plate discipline is much better, with drawing 56 walks to just 33 strikeouts this season. However, his lack of power(SLG %.334) will keep him from becoming more than a backup. Both players are in their upper 20s, appear to be no more than AAAA players and backup catchers.

A/AA: Adam Donachie highlights the A/AA list. Donachie's prowess is his defense behind the plate, which is very good. His weakness is his bat. He struggled after being promoted to Wichita, with a .633 OPS. His home/road splits at Wichita also showed a strong home bias, with an OPS 148 points higher at home. Donachie is still young (22 years old), particularly for a catcher. So, his bat may improve considerably over the next few seasons.

The Royals drafted 3 college catchers in the 2005 draft, Kiel Thibault, Jeffrey Howell, and Brady Everett. All three did well in rookie ball, but only Thibault continued his success into this season. Thibault hit very well (.340/.398/.485 line) at High Desert, but struggled in the less hitter-friendly Midwest League.

I looked through the Rookie Leagues, but didn't find any prospects worth noting. Overall, catcher is a significant weakness in the organization. The Royals could use a good left-handed bat to counter Buck's weakness against righties. The Royals don't have any catching prospects who project as major league regulars, so the Royals will need to improve their depth in the upcoming draft and with any offseason moves.

Grades:
Depth: D-
Impact Talent: F

Up next: Third Basemen (i.e. Alex Gordon)

NWroyal is here.

2006-10-10T18:42:00.000-04:00

Thanks to David for the invite--I'm glad to be part of the team. I'm Darren, I live in Eugene, Oregon, but grew up in Grandview. I'm nwroyal on the scout board. I had just turned 8 when the Royals won it all in 1985. That started my interest in baseball. It was so fun to be a part of a winner--the World Champions. I figured this kind of success would follow the Royals and I started following them very closely. 21 years later and I'm still waiting for the next playoff game. But perhaps, even in the midst of 3 straight 100 loss seasons, we are closer than we have been in a long time to fielding a good baseball team. As the team floundered, perhaps it was natural that I turned some of my attention to the Royals minor leagues--I enjoy seeing the promise of young players. It is all too tempting to try imagine the "next" Brett or White or Saberhagen. I tend to be overly optimistic.

This offseason promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory as The Great Dayton puts his stamp upon the team. We wil be here to follow it--we'll talk about the moves--trades, FA signings, Rule V draft. We'll break down the minor leagues, rate our prospects, provide info on the draft--I hope we'll have some fun debates. I'm no expert--but I'm a passionate amateur. I hope this will become the place to come to for information on future Royals and I hope you'll join the discussion. Play Ball!

GeorgiaRoyal Introduction

2006-10-06T14:03:00.000-04:00

I'm very glad to be on board here at The Daily Lancer. I've been a fan of the Royals since the glory years of the late 1990's. It was actually 1998, to be exact. I know, it seems odd to jump on the bandwagon at that point, but it was going pretty slow and it was pretty easy to get on there. I was just in time to enjoy a 72-89 season in Tony Muser's first full season as manager.

I blame Terry Pendleton, really. I was a Cardinal fan as a kid and Terry Pendleton became my instant favorite player when I met him at an autograph signing at Columbia Mall in Columbia, Missouri. My family moved to the suburbs of Atlanta, GA in 1989 and Terry Pendleton joined the Braves in 1991. After the Braves, Terry bounced around a little, but ended up with the Kansas City Royals. I had never followed AL ball before, and was intrigued by the DH and seeing the other half of the major leagues I'd never paid a lot of attention to. So, I began following Terry and the Royals during the 1998 season. He retired after the 1998 season, but I'm still here. Waiting for the year when it all comes together.

1998 wasn't all bad. Dean Palmer gave the Great Steve Balboni a run with 34 HR. Balboni remains the Royals all time, single season, HR record holder with 36 HR in 1985, as sad as that is here in the steroid era. Tim Belcher and Patt Rapp anchored the pitching staff while a couple of 23 year old lefties (Jose Rosado and Glendon Rusch) showed a hope for the future. At the end of the 1998 sesaon, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles made their debuts. "Dos Carlos" was all the hype going into the 1999 season, but only Uno Carlos actually did much after 1999.

The Royals drafted Jeff Austin with the 4th overall pick of the 1998 draft. It was at this point that I began my, as my wife calls it, nerdom about the Royals and their minor league system. I was aware of the draft, but never paid much attention until 1998. I realized that there were teams of players that were working their respective ways to the Bigs. I think I knew this before, but it just didn't register with me. Many won't make it, but they are all playing to be the few that do make it and make a difference in the Major Leagues. That's why I love it. Sure, it's been tainted a bit with all of the million dollar babies. They aren't actually roughing it through the bus leagues and such, but the vast majority of the guys are making huge sacrifices to play ball and cling to the hope that they could be one of the few that gets to play in the Majors.

That's where the hope, as a Royals fan, comes from. There are 7 teams of minor leaguers that are under the Royals control, not to mention the guys down in the Dominican. Which of these guys are destined to be "organizational guys" and which ones are going to be pieces of the championship puzzle? That's why I pay attention. I want to know as much as possible about these guys when they get to KC and I also want to know as much about they guys as possible that are just clinging to the hope that they might one day get there.

Daily Lancer Welcomes Two New Bloggers

2006-10-05T17:25:00.000-04:00

I decided to make some changes to the Daily Lancer, the most important being the addition of two new bloggers, georgiaroyal and nwroyal. The names may sound familiar from the scout.com board where they both post regularly. Georgiaroyal and nwroyal both follow the Royals' farm system very closely and will be great additions to the Daily Lancer.

The Daily Lancer is going to be dedicated to providing in-depth coverage of the Royals' farm system. Here's a few of the features that are in the works for the Daily Lancer:

-Nightly minor-league updates during the season
-Top prospect lists and depth chart complied by the Daily Lancer's minor league experts
-In-depth look at the Royals' top prospects, examining their past season's performance and projection/future roles in the organization
-Pre-draft coverage, including photos and first-hand accounts of some top draft prospects
-Photos and first-hand accounts of Royals' top prospects
-Examination of the minor league talent throughout the division

I hope you enjoy it!

Bell is Safe for Now

2006-09-02T14:15:00.000-04:00

The Royals report that Buddy's job is safe, for now at least. Moore says that Bell is "the least of our problems right now", which isn't entirely untrue. The Royals can't hit, pitch, or play defense and a new manager isn't going to change that. The difference between a great manager and a monkey running a baseball team is probably about 10 to 15 wins. It can be the difference between a good team and a great team. But, as far as the Royals are concerned, it really doesn't matter. The Royals' primary focus must be improving the talent, everything else is secondary. However, the manager issue should be addressed. If Buddy Bell isn't the best manager for the long-term, then he should be replaced at the end of the season. If Moore thinks Bell is the long-term solution at manager, then I'll be a bit worried.

In other news, Reggie Sanders doesn't have a tear in his knee, so he should be ready to go for next season. Also, Ryan Braun will be joining the Royals. Braun has 3 saves and a 2.16 ERA for Omaha.

The Royals have played well of late, winning 4 of their last 7 games. Mark Teahen continues his surprising sophomore surge, hitting his 18th HR of the season and driving in 3 runs. DeJesus and Shealy both had 2-hit games for the Royals. Shealy has been alright offensively since joining the Royals. His overall line is pretty good (.305/.354/.424), although he hasn't shown as much power as I thought he would.

Hernandez had another very good start yesterday, going 6 innings and allowing just 1 run. He's allowed just 1 run in his last 15 innings. Hernandez will need a strong September to build a case for him returning next year. He figures to make $1.5 to 2 million next season with arbitration. I don't think Hernandez is worth that money and he will become a non-tender candidate or trade bait.

Luke Hudson is a good bet to return as a starter for the Royals next season. Hudson has made quality starts in 7 of his last 9 starts. So, aside from his disastrous start against Cleveland, he's been a very good starter for the Royals. The rest of the Royals' rotation for next year is a mystery. Zack Greinke will most likely rejoin the big league club next year. Odalis Perez, who starts tonight, is also under contract for next year. So, Hudson, Perez, and Greinke are the 3 most likely starters for next year.

Omaha Royals

2006-08-27T17:43:00.000-04:00

I went to the Omaha Royals vs. Oklahoma Redhawks game on Friday night. The Omaha Royals won 4-2 in a well-pitched game by both teams. Mike Wood made a rehab start for the Wranglers and left the game in the 3rd inning. Wood was pretty hittable, giving up a lot of line drives. The defense also made a few mistakes behind him, contributing to his early departure. Pat Mahomes came in and pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings. Mahomes has a strange delivery, but kept hitters off-balance with good offspeed stuff. Leo Nunez closed out the game with a solid inning and picked up his 4th save.

On the offensive end, Shane Costa hit his 10th HR of the season, a blast to right field that bounced off the back of the bullpen. Paul Phillips had two hits, including a double. Kerry Robinson drove in the game-winning run.

Here are my impressions of some Omaha players:

Justin Huber: Huber didn't have a great night at the plate, but he hit the ball hard twice. Huber looked pretty comfortable in left field. He looked faster than I expected, getting to balls in the gap quickly. He did a pretty good job reading flyballs and made a tough catch against the wall in LF. I think Huber will end up as a left fielder in the majors and it was a good decision to move him there. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could be the Royals' starting left fielder next year.

Shane Costa: Costa looked pretty pissed off, most likely because he wasn't promoted to the big league club after Sanders' injury. Costa hit a very deep homerun to RF. Costa has shown improved power this season. Costa is naturally very strong like Teahen, so I think he could have a breakout season like Teahen.

Mike Aviles: Aviles looked surprisingly big. He showed good speed on the basepaths as well and drew a couple of walks. He's probably a AAAA player, but could be a useful utility guy.

Paul Phillips: Phillips had a nice night at the plate and has shown decent power this season (9 HRs). I wasn't impressed with his defense, particularly his throws. He had two wild throws during the game, on to second and the other to third. As much as Royals' fans lament Buck, Phillips isn't the answer either.

Leo Nunez: Nunez pitched a very good inning for the Royals. He allowed just one hit, a bloop single. I didn't see him throw much other than his fastball though, but he commanded it well.

My camera battery wasn't fully charged, so I only got a few good pictures, but here they are:

Royals Win

2006-08-23T01:39:00.000-04:00

Sorry for not posting much of late, been very busy. The Royals put together a nice win tonight. Mark Teahen has had an outstanding season, exceeding all expectations. Tonight, he went 4 for 4 with a HR (16), a pair of doubles, and 2 RBIs. Teahen does everything well. He's hitting for power, getting on-base, stealing bases, and playing solid defense. He's a complete player, pretty similar to what most people think Alex Gordon will become, with maybe slightly less offensive ability. Nonetheless, his improved power and plate discipline have made him into an excellent hitter. It's still uncertain whether Teahen or Gordon will change positions. But, the Royals have a great problem to have with two very good third basemen.

Odalis Perez pitched well for the Royals, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings, striking out 4 and walking just 1. He's pitched better for the Royals, with a 4.66 ERA after 5 starts for the Royals. The trade for Perez and two young minor leaguers for Dessens is looking like a very good one for the Royals.

In other news, Chris Nicoll was promoted to High Desert. Nicoll has very good numbers at Burlington, with a 2.82 ERA and 140 strikeouts to 40 walks. The Royals have been pretty conservative with their pitchers this season. Brent Fisher is still in the Arizona Rookie League, which he's dominating for the second season in a row. I'm not sure what's wrong with a 2.28 ERA, 80 strikeouts to 16 walks, and just 2 HRs allowed in 59 innings. Looking at the stats, it'd seem there's nothing left for him to prove. However, they must have something in mind for him to work on.

I will be at the Omaha Royals game on Friday, so I will provide some insight on the Omaha team this weekend as well as pictures from the game. If there's anyone you want me to focus on, let me know.

Royals End Skid

2006-08-15T19:20:00.000-04:00

The team that had played roughly average baseball for June and July has vanished. The Royals' team we've grown accustomed to has reappeared as we all knew it would. The starting pitching has been awful, particularly over the past few games. Luke Hudson's 11-run, 1/3 inning start may have been one of the worst all-time. Hudson didn't have good command, but the Indians weren't hitting him hard (except for one homerun). He just couldn't find the strikezone. Most of the balls hit against him were grounders that found holes or and the worst's deepest trench, Angel Berroa. So, perhaps there is still some hope for him. Redman's start last night wasn't much better, surrendering 8 runs in 3 2/3 innings.

The Royals finally broke their skid of horrible baseball. The Royals won 4-2 on Tuesday thanks to an unexpected quality start from Runvelys Hernandez, who has been completely useless this season. Mark Teahen continues to be the Royals' best bet, hitting his 14th HR to centerfield. Teahen's development of good power has been the nicest surpise of the season. Emil Brown has also continued to hit well. Brown has hit 4 HRs and is sporting a .326/.385/.674 line so far in August. Brown has a .800 OPS overall on the season, a slight decrease from last season. Nonetheless, Brown remains one of the Royals' most productive bats. I'd much rather have Brown back for next season than Reggie Sanders, but the $5 million on Sander's contract will make him tough to move.

The 2007 Rotation:

The Royals have no continuity whatsoever in the rotation. That's a problem that must be addressed in the offseason. The Royals need to acquire at least two reliable veteran starters, especially if Odalis Perez doesn't revert to his 2005 form. Hernandez has been terrible this season, so he will likely be non-tendered. Elarton might be back by midseason, but he isn't worth saving a spot for. Jimmy Gobble appears to be best suited for a setup role, so he probably won't be a starter. Hudson and De La Rosa have great stuff, but they are very inconsistent. The Royals will have Greinke back next year and Lumsden will probably join the rotation at some point. But, most of the spots are wide open.

2007 Rotation:
FA
FA
Perez
Greinke
Hudson/De La Rosa/Lumsden

Organizational Outlook: Starting Pitching

2006-08-09T01:07:00.000-04:00

The Royals' starting pitching has been dreadful for the past decade, finishing at the bottom in most pitching statistics. This season is no exception, with the Royals' starters having the highest ERA, fewest strikeouts, tons of walks, and the fewest innings pitched. So, is there hope for the Royals' rotation? The Royals' starting pitching depth has shown significant improvement over the past few months, particularly at lower levels. The Royals also have a few talented starters who could be mainstays in the rotation by 2008.

Predicting the rotation in 2008 is a pretty tough task. The Royals' current rotation doesn't have any starters who will likely be long-term starters for the Royals. Perez, Elarton, and Redman's contracts will have expired by 2008 and Hernandez will be released or non-tendered this offseason. Jimmy Gobble is best suited for the bullpen, although he may become a #5 starter if given enough opportunity. Luke Hudson might be the best bet to become a good starter for the Royals, as he has pretty good stuff and appears to have figured out his command problems.

Here's the 2008 Rotation filled from within:

#1 Luke Hochevar
#2 Zack Greinke
#3 Tyler Lumsden
#4 Luke Hudson
#5 Billy Buckner

Hochevar, Greinke, and Lumsden have frontline to mid-rotation starter talent, but they probably won't reach that potential until 2008 or 2009 (if they ever do). Realistically, I think one of those starters will reach their potential as a frontline starter, one will be an average starter, and one will be a bust or get injured. Given the Royals' track record of developing pitching, that is probably an optimistic outlook. Nonetheless, the Royals need to add some more top starting prospects to improve their chances of building an above-average rotation.

Starting Pitching Prospects: Hochevar, Greinke, and Lumsden give the Royals the best shot at a quality rotation by 2008. By that time, the Royals should have another group of starters approaching the majors as well. The Royals' currently have a very good rotation at Burlington featuring this next wave of pitching talent.

The Burlington rotation features 5 good young starters, Cordier, Nicoll, Kniginyzky, Rosa, and Cortes. Cordier has the best stuff and has been lights out for Burlington. He could move very quickly through the Royals' farm system and has frontline starter potential. Nicoll is probably the second-best bet to become a major-league starter. He also should move quickly as a polished college pitcher with excellent control. Kniginyzky is also a college pitcher who was converted to a starter this season and has pretty good stuff. Rosa has good stuff and is still pretty young. His command still needs some work though. Cortes is the youngest of the group at age 19 and is holding his own in low A ball. Overall, the Burlington rotation gives the Royals 5 good arms who could all emerge as mid-rotation starters by the end of the decade.

High Desert also has a few starters worth noting. Blake Johnson, acquired in the Dessens/Perez deal, has excellent command and good strikeout numbers. Luis Cota has struggled at High Desert, but he still has a live arm with lots of potential. Cota has pitched better lately, so maybe he's starting to master High Desert.

Overall, the Royals have much improved pitching depth, particularly in the low minors. While the improvements probably won't help the big-league team for a few years, they should make an impact once the Royals' offensive core has fully developed at the major leagues.

Organizational Needs: The Royals need some veteran pitching to improve the rotation until Greinke, Lumsden, and Hochevar are ready. The Royals also need more pitching prospects near the major leagues so they can improve the rotation in the next couple of years.

Offseason Moves: Moore should continue to focus on getting more young pitching into the Royals' organization, as he did throughout July. The Royals need a couple of veteran starters to anchor the rotation in addition to Perez. The free agent market has a lot more starters around the age of 28-30 who are decent #3 or 4 starters. So, the Royals should be able to get one of those starters fairly easily.

Organizational Outlook: Up The Middle

2006-08-07T23:40:00.000-04:00

The Royals have some problems up the middle. The Royals don't have many options at catcher and John Buck is still questionable as an everyday catcher. The Royals have a few options at second base, although none are particularly young. The Royals have a shortstop who is the worst everyday player in major league baseball and two young minor leaguers who are still a couple years away from being better. The Royals are in good shape in centerfield, with two quality options in Gathright and DeJesus.

Centerfield:

The exception to the Royals' weakness up the middle is centerfield, where the Royals have an established centerfielder in David DeJesus who has been moved to a corner spot for Joey Gathright. If Gathright doesn't develop into a base-stealing, on-base machine to counter his poor bat, then the Royals still have DeJesus to play centerfield. The Royals also have a solid, all-around centerfielder in Mitch Maier, who is having a good season at AA. So, the Royals shouldn't have any problems fielding a quality centerfielder. After all, when was the last time the Royals didn't have a very good centerfielder? The pre-Damon era?

Shortstop:

The shortstop position is the exact opposite of the centerfield position. The Royals have had a lot of trouble finding a quality shortstop over the past decade. Angel Berroa is a horrible baseball player who will make $8 million over the next two seasons. The Royals' two best options in the minors are Andres Blanco and Angel Sanchez. Blanco has a worse bat than Berroa and he may be a better defender, but he possesses the same maddening inconsistency on defense that Berroa has. Sanchez may eventually be the best hitter of the three, but his defense still needs a lot of work. Blanco and Sanchez will not be quality options until the end of Berroa's contract, so it looks like we're stuck with Berroa for now.

Second Base:

Mark Grudzielanek has done a nice job at second base, particularly defensively. He might be an option for next year, but the future depends on Esteban German or Jeff Keppinger. In limited opportunities, German has shown excellent on-base skills and great speed on the basepaths. To become an everyday second basemen, German will have to improve his defense. Hopefully Buddy Bell's tenure as manager ends quickly and German gets a chance to play everyday at second next year. I don't know much about Jeff Keppinger, but Moore says he will compete for the second base job as well.

Catcher:

The catching position remains a problem in the organization as it has been for about 10 years. John Buck hasn’t shown too many signs of improving offensively behind the plate. He’s shown some power, enough to hit 10-15 HRs a year and probably bring his OPS into the .700-.750 range. He is pretty average throwing out runners and probably above-average behind the plate. The Royals don’t have any options to replace him. The Royals’ closest prospects Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman project as backups at best.

Organizational Needs Up the Middle: The Royals need to address the shortstop problem and find a long-term replacement for Berroa in the next year or two. John Buck is an acceptable option behind the plate if he improves offensively. Catcher’s bats can be slow to develop, so it’s best to be patient with Buck. Unlike Berroa, he does contribute defensively at an important position.

Offseason Moves: The Royals will have to decide whether or not they are comfortable with giving German and Keppinger the everyday second base job. If not, Grudzielanek would be a likely candidate to return. The Royals should also try to trade for a shortstop prospect close to the majors, perhaps packaging Lubanski or Maier in the deal.

Organizational Outlook: Corner Infield/Outfield

2006-08-06T21:25:00.000-04:00

The next two posts will look at the Royals' organizational depth chart and look at what the team will look like by 2008-2009. This post will focus on the Royals' position players. The Royals' greatest organizational strength is at the corner positions, where they have a strong group of power bats approaching the majors. Dayton Moore's plans include power at the corners and speed up the middle. The Royals should have plenty of power bats at the corner positions by 2008-2009. The Royals have some speed up the middle, but those players might not be more than part-time players.

The Royals have some important questions to answer at the corner spots. The Royals depth chart has a lot of overlap at the corners, so it's very difficult to project what position the organization's corner infielders and outfielders will eventually play. The Royals have two excellent third basemen, but one will have to be moved to first base or the outfield. Justin Huber and Billy Butler are currently playing outfield in the minors, but both are defensive liabilities there and may have to move to first base/DH. Mitch Maier and Chris Lubanski project as much better defenders, but have much weaker bats. The Royals also already have a solid corner outfielder in David DeJesus, but he could be moved back to centerfield.

The best way to look at the corner positions is to look at all of the potential players in general for the 4 corner positions and the DH spot. If you consider Gordon, Teahen, and DeJesus as locks for future positions, then the Royals have the following players competing for the the remaining two or three corner spots (depending on if DeJesus moves back to CF):

Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, Justin Huber, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier

Butler, Shealy, and Huber project as above-average to All-Star corner bats and two of them will likely reach those projections. Lubanski and Maier will provide some insurance in case more than one of those players doesn't pan out or they may become trade bait.

Organizational Needs at the Corners: The Royals are in a very good position at the corner spots by 2008. The Royals might need a stopgap outfielder or 1B/DH for next year. Sanders and Sweeney will likely be those stopgap players because of their expensive contracts.

Offseason Moves: The Royals will try to move Sanders and Sweeney and perhaps resign Mientkiewicz or another stopgap first basemen or outfielder. Lubanski or Maier might be added to sweeten a deal.

Prospect List Update (16-25)

2006-08-05T12:36:00.000-04:00

16. Blake Johnson 21/RHP:

Johnson has pretty average stuff with some potential for improvement. His best asset is his command, averaging just 1.5 walks per 9 innings. Combined with a respectable strikeout rate and pretty low HR allowed rate, his defense-independent stats are very good. Right now, he projects as a back rotation guy, but that could change if his velocity improves.

High A 4-5 4.92 ERA 106 IP 121 Hits 11 HRs 19 BBs 73 SOs
High A 1-0 1.50 ERA 6 IP 7 Hits 0 HRs 0 BBs 7 SOs

17. Ryan Braun 26/RHP

Braun has had a very good recovery from his injury last season. He has a great fastball that can reach 98 mph and a solid slider to complement it. Braun is pretty old for a prospect, but he was injured last season and was drafted as a college senior. So, he's moved fairly quickly. He projects as a solid setup man if he can command his stuff well.

AA 1-6 2.21 ERA 40.2 IP 10 Saves 30 Hits 2 HRs 16 BBs 58 SOs
AAA 0-1 9.2 IP 2 Saves 12 Hits 0 HRs 3 BBs 10 SOs

18. Matt Kniginyzky 23/RHP:

The Canadian righty has made a very good transition from relieving to starting. His fastball sits in the low 90s and can reach 94 mph. He also has a good curveball and a developing changeup.

Low A 8-3 3.22 ERA 109 IP 100 Hits 11 HRs 31 BBs 89 SOs

19. Carlos Rosa 21/RHP:

Rosa has had a very good comeback season, performing very well at Burlington. His fastball was reaching 94 mph and his velocity is reportedly back. He has a good curve and change, so he has the repertoire for starting.

Low A 7-6 2.54 ERA 120.2 IP 101 Hits 4 HRs 48 BBs 86 SOs

20. Angel Sanchez 22/SS:

Many Royals fans hope that Sanchez will eventually unseat Berroa. However, that probably won't be until Berroa's contract ends. Sanchez's defense still needs a lot of work and he hasn't shown much power yet. Nonetheless, his plate discipline is much better than Berroa's, so there is some hope for him.

AA 419 ABs .284/.343/.363 19 2Bs 4 HRs 43 RBIs 34 BBs 50 SOs

21. Julio Pimentel 20/RHP

Pimentel struggled at the Dodger's high A club. He's lack of command and hittability has led to a WHIP of 1.76. Pimentel has a live arm with a mid-90s fastball. The rest of his repertoire is pretty unpolished still, but he has the potential for two or three plus pitches. He projects as a solid reliever unless his secondary stuff improves.

High A 3-8 5.69 ERA 74.1 IP 85 Hits 4 HRs 45 BBs 77 SOs

22. Danny Christensen 22/LHP

Christensen has had a great comeback from his injury two seasons ago. He has a very good K/BB ratio. He's given up a lot of hits and home runs, but that may be High Desert related. He has an outstanding curveball, so at the very least he should be a good lefty setup man.

High A 2-6 5.50 ERA 124.1 IP 143 Hits 19 HRs 41 BBs 124 SOs

23. Joseph Dickerson 19/CF:

Dickerson has made a successful transition to advanced Rookie Ball and has started to show some power of late. He's shown good contact skills during his first two professional seasons and he's best known for his defensive abilities.

Pio 123 ABs .341/.383/.585 9 2Bs 5 HRs 21 RBIs 7 BBs 21 SOs

24. Chris McConnell 20/SS:

His offensive struggles at Burlington sent him back to the pioneer league, but it hasn't helped him much. McConnell still has some projectable skills, even though his development hasn't been as fast as expected.

Pio 61 ABs .279/.333/.361 1 2B 0 HRs 11 RBIs 4 BBs 13 SOs
Low A 239 ABs .172/.254/.201 4 2Bs 1 HR 19 RBIs 17 BBs 47 SOs

25. Jason Godin 21/RHP:

The Royals' fifth-round pick has had a good debut in the Pioneer League. He's shown good command and the ability to rack up strikeouts, something he did in college as well as Justin Verlander, the Tigers' new ace.

Pio 0-0 2.70 ERA 16.2 IP 19 Hits 2 HRs 4 BBs 15 SOs

Updated Prospect List (1-15)

2006-08-04T00:49:00.000-04:00

Dayton Moore's trades have significantly strengthened the Royals' farm system and added a quality group of arms to the low minors. There's finally some pitching depth the Royals' farm system which lacked pitching depth for a decade now. The Royals have a nice core of offensive players, so the Royals have the makings of a complete team in the near future. The Royals still have to improve their ability to develop pitching talent, as that remains a major problem in the organization that has yet to be addressed. Adding more pitching prospects to the farm system is one way to try and overcome the inefficiencies of the Royals' pitching development schemes. Moore says pitchers will spend more time at AAA and won't be rushed to the majors, so that should help the Royals develop young pitching. Moore is taking the organization in the right direction and the improvements to the farm system throughout his short tenure are pretty impressive. The addition of Hochevar spared the 2006 draft from being a disaster and added another impact player to the farm system.

1. Alex Gordon 22/3B: Gordon has become one of the top two or three prospects in the minors. His July numbers have been absolutely ridiculous, boosting his OPS to .963 and giving him 19 HRs overall. Gordon was recently on Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet and they said he was putting himself in consideration to be their No. 1 minor-league prospect next year. Gordon has no weakness and should be an All-Star third basemen in a couple of years. His recent surge will likely earn him a promotion and he could be on the Opening Day roster next year. He's just that good.

AA 371 ABs .313/.413/.553 30 2Bs 19 HRs 65 RBIs 55 BBs 79 SOs 20 SBs 3 CS

2. Billy Butler 20/OF: Butler hasn't shown as much power this year as he did in his previous two seasons. However, he has still hit 41 extra base hits, including 12 HRs. He's still very young, so he will get stronger physically and could eventually develop into one of the best power hitters in the game. He'll likely spend the rest of the year at AA and then most of next year at AAA. His defense has shown noticeable improvement this season, so given some extra development time it may become passable in the outfield.

AA 419 ABs .317/.374/.473 29 2Bs 12 HRs 78 RBIs 36 BBs 61 SOs

3. Luke Hochevar 22/RHP: Hochevar has sat out most of two minor league seasons holding out. Hochevar has 4 above-average pitches and a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98 mph. He has the stuff to be a future No. 1 starter. He has been doing some conditioning on the side, so he should be in shape to head to Burlington fairly quickly. If all goes well, he should pitch in the Arizona Fall League and have a chance to reach the majors for good by 2008.

4. Ryan Shealy 27/1B:

Shealy has displayed very good power throughout his minor league career, hitting 25+ HRs in the past two seasons and continuing that pace this season. Shealy has been productive in his major league debut, hitting .320/.370/.470 in his first 100 ABs. Shealy is already 27, so he's pretty old for a prospect. Nonetheless, he should supply the power needed for a first basemen. His defense, however, is pretty shaky at first.

AAA 222 ABs .284/.351/.568 16 2Bs 15 HRs 55 RBIs 20 BBs 34 SOs

5. Justin Huber 24/1B:

Most Royals fans seem to have soured on Huber, but he's consistently put up very good numbers. His frequent injuries have set him back and he hasn't made enough progress defensively at first base. If he can play a serviceable left field, that might be his best ticket to the majors. He probably won't hit more than 20 HRs a year in the majors, but his on-base skills will make him a solid player at a corner position.

AAA 245 ABs .282/.358/.498 13 2Bs 12 HRs 27 RBIs 26 BBs 64 SOs

6. Tyler Lumsden 23/LHP:

Lumsden possesses two very good pitches, a mid-90s fastball and a slider. His command has shown improvements this season. Lumsden projects as a mid-rotation starter and could be in the Royals' rotation by 2007.

AA 9-4 2.69 ERA 123 2/3 IP 114 Hits 9 HRs 40 BBs 72 SOs
AA (Wichita) 3.00 ERA 6 IP 4 Hits 1 HR 3 BBs 6 SOs

7. Chris Lubanski 21/LF:

Lubanski has fallen from the #4 prospect to #7 not because his stock has fallen, but because the farm system has become much stronger. Lubanski has done very well for a 21 year old and has recovered nicely from a slow start. Lubanski has drawn 52 walks, giving him a good .358 on-base percentage. Lubanski still has pretty good speed, even though he isn't much of a base stealer. He doesn't have a very good arm, so he'll be in left or center field.

AA 393 ABs .275/.358/.476 27 2Bs 12 HRs 59 RBIs 52 BBs 87 SOs

8. Erik Cordier 20/RHP:

Erik Cordier's stock has risen incredibly throughout this season. Last season, he had some lingering leg injuries that kept him from pitching. Fortunately, he hasn't had any injuries to his great young arm. Cordier's fastball reaches 98 mph and his changeup and curve are excellent complementary pitches, giving him 3 potential plus pitches at the big-league level. He has the potential to be a frontline starter down the road and could move quickly through the Royals' farm system.

(Pio) 1-0 3.38 ERA 16 IP 11 Hits 0 HRs 3 BBs 19 SOs
Low A 1-1 0.95 ERA 19 IP 11 Hits 0 HRs 8 BBs 11 SOs

9. Billy Buckner 23/RHP:

Buckner finally mastered High Desert this season, putting together a good 3.90 ERA in 90 innings. However, he has struggled at Wichita. His strikeout numbers are very good, averaging almost one strikeout per inning. His command needs a lot of work, as he's walking about 5 batters per 9 innings. Buckner has an outstanding curveball and a good fastball. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

High A 7-1 3.90 ERA 90 IP 92 Hits 6 HRs 47 BBs 85 SOs
AA 2-1 6.96 ERA 32.1 IP 39 Hits 4 HRs 18 BBs 30 SOs

10. Jeff Bianchi 19/SS:

Bianchi has been extremely impressive when he's been healthy. He is dominating the Arizona Rookie League again, with a ridiculous 1.204 OPS. Unfortunately, his back injury continues to linger and he's been out for several weeks now and may need back surgery. Bianchi has the talent to be a 20/20 player, but he's going to have to overcome his injury problems.

AZL 42 ABs 4 2Bs 2 HRs 6 RBIs .429/.537/.667

11. Chris Nicoll 22/RHP:

Nicoll is putting together a solid season at Burlington. His command has been very good, averaging 2.5 walks per 9 innings. He's also averaging one strikeout per inning. Nicoll has a solid average repertoire and might add some velocity before reaching the majors. Right now, his projection is similar to Buckner's as a back of the rotation guy, the Royals' house speciality.

Low A 4-7 2.82 ERA 118 IP 92 Hits 12 HRs 33 BBs 118 SOs

12. Mitch Maier 24/OF:

Mitch Maier remains one of the best bets in the farm system to become a major-league players. He's an excellent defensive outfielder and one of the few outfielders in the organization with enough arm strength and foot speed to play rightfield. He's shown improved power this season, but will probably need to show more to become an everyday player. His defensive abilities and solid bat should make him at least a very good fourth outfielder.

AA 416 ABs .293/.343/.464 23 2Bs 12 HRs 68 RBIs 29 BBs 75 SOs

13. Daniel Cortes 19/RHP:

Cortes is having a pretty good season, particularly for a 19-year-old. He has a good sinker and slider combo, with a fastball that can reach the mid-90s. His K/BB ratio above 2 and low HR totals are promising. Cortes still has some projection remaining, but could eventually emerge as a mid-rotation starter.

Low A 3-9 4.01 107.2 IP 109 Hits 6 HRs 38 BBs 96 SOs

14. Brent Fisher 18/LHP:

Fisher has dominated the Arizona Rookie League for a second season in a row. Why he hasn't earned a promotion is a mystery. He has an outstanding K/BB of 5.4 and hasn't allowed many hits or HRs. He's a protypical lefty with a sinking fastball and a curve and neither pitch projects to be overwhelming.

AZL 1-1 2.18 ERA 41.1 IP 21 Hits 2 HRs 10 BBs 54 SOs

15. Luis Cota 20/RHP:

Cota has struggled at High Desert after a good season at Burlington last year. He's pitched better than his 7.10 ERA indicates. His K/BB ratio is pretty solid, although his command still needs some work. He needs to work on his secondary stuff, but his great arm gives him at least mid-rotation potential.

High A 4-10 7.10 ERA 104 IP 124 Hits 13 HRs 49 BBs 100 SOs

Royals Sign Hochevar

2006-08-03T12:49:00.000-04:00

The Royals announced this morning that they have signed their top pick Luke Hochevar. After hearing nothing about the negotiations for the couple of weeks, this comes as a very pleasant surprise. It appeared as though Hochevar wasn't going to sign anytime soon, if at all. But, the Royals now have Hochevar signed to a 4-year major league contract. That means Hochevar will have to be on the 40-man roster. He will be optioned to the minors, most likely to Burlington and then move up to High Desert. Considering he pitched well against a High A/AA level caliber independent league, he should move pretty quickly. If all goes well, perhaps he'll get a chance to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. After sitting out most of two seasons, he'll need all the innings he can get.

Even though I don't really like giving an amateur player a major-league contract, I'm pretty pleased with the deal. The Royals certainly took a gamble by selecting a Boras client who had already held out for one season. But, the Royals were able to sign one of the top two pitching talents available and a potential ace. Hochevar strengthens the farm system considerably, which is lightyears ahead of where it was a few months ago.

The mechanics of Hochevar's contract don't have any implications on service time as far as I'm aware. As long as he is in the minors, he won't accrue service time, which determines when he becomes a free agent. I believe the 4-year contract simply means he gets paid whatever they agreed to over the next 4 years and he is still under the Royals control until he has 6 years of major league service time. He has three option years, so Hochevar has until the end of 2008 to reach the majors.

This is great news for Royals fans, as the Royals added a potentially great arm to their farm system who should be ready on the same timetable as the organization's premier offensive talent. Also, this shows that the Royals aren't afraid to deal with Scott Boras. Finally, the past two drafts have shown that the Royals will go after the best player available in the draft and aren't afraid to spend the $4-5 million required to sign the best player. It appears the Royals are finally headed in the right direction. As promised, I will have the updated prospect list shortly with our newest addition, Luke Hochevar.

Final July Trades

2006-08-02T01:30:00.000-04:00

Royals' GM Dayton Moore finished off the July trading frenzy with two more deals on Monday. The Royals traded Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista to Colorado for first basemen Ryan Shealy and pitcher Scott Dohmann. In a smaller deal, the Royals traded Matt Stairs to the Rangers for RHP Jose Diaz.

First basemen Ryan Shealy had been coveted by Dayton Moore and many Royals fans. Shealy has put up good numbers with 15 HRs in 222 ABs and a .284/.351/.568 line overall. Shealy is turning 27 this month, so he's no youngster. In 2005, Shealy had 26 homers hit .328 at AAA. In 2004, he had 29 homers and hit .318 at AA. He was on pace for another 25-30 HR season, so he's shown steady power throughout his career. He's been blocked by Todd Helton in Colorado, so he hasn't seen much big league action. He's made the most of his limited opportunities, hitting .320/.398/.470 in his first 100 major league at-bats. So, hopefully that's a sign of things to come.

His right-handed bat adds to the surplus of righties at the 1B and DH position with Sweeney, Huber, and Butler projected to hold those spots down next year and beyond. Shealy will join the big league club and get a significant number of at-bats for the rest of the season. With Huber, Shealy, and Butler, the Royals should have enough good bats to fill out the 1B and DH positions.

Scott Dohmann isn't young either. The 28-year-old righty has a 6.20 ERA in 24 2/3 innings with 15 walks and 22 strikeouts. Dohmann is averaging over 1 strikeout per inning throughout his career, but the walks and home runs have hurt him. He throws 92-94 mph and has a good slider, so he's a good candidate for a setup role if he can improve his command. I hope Moore saw something in Dohmann, because you usually don't trade for 28-year-old relievers who haven't figured out how to throw strikes.

Jose Diaz will also add some bullpen depth. Diaz has pitched very well of late and has struck out 75 in the last 62 2/3 innings.

The Shealy deal looks alright to me. The Royals have a pretty good offensive core already developing and this solidifies the 1B/DH position even further. Dohmann doesn't have much upside, but might be a useful middle reliever. He's basically a throw-in. Denny Bautista has a lot of upside, but for every 100 Bautistas, 15 will become good setup men and 5 will become frontline starters. Like Affeldt, I'm convinced Bautista wouldn't ever become anything in a Royals' uniform. Both needed a change of scene badly.

In the next few days, I'll redo the Royals' top prospect list. The Royals' pitching depth has improved remarkably over the season with the emergence of the Burlington Bees' stout rotation and Moore's moves in July.

Moore Grabs 4 Pitchers for Dessens and Graffanino

2006-07-26T17:16:00.000-04:00

Moore continues to deal away the Royals' expendable parts for more young pitching and a veteran starter. Moore traded Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Odalis Perez and minor league pitchers Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel. The Dodgers are reported picking up $8 million of Perez's salary as well as his signing bonus and part of his buyout. The Royals are on the hook for about $3-4 million in salary and part of the buyout for roughly a year and a half of Perez's services. The Royals also traded Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa.

Odalis Perez will join the Royals' rotation, which will become a six-man rotation until Perez builds up his endurance. Perez has struggled as a starter this season, with a 8.53 ERA in 8 starts and allowing almost two hits an inning. He's pitched much better as a reliever, with a 3.80 ERA in 21 IP with 12 strikeouts to just 2 walks. So, if he fails as a starter, it seems he should be able to duplicate what Elmer Dessens did in the pen. If he succeeds, the Royals get a solid #2/#3 starter. Perez's career numbers are very solid, with a career 4.24 ERA and a very good 2.60 K/BB ratio. His career 1.27WHIP and 6.39 k/9 are solid as well. For $3 million, it's a worthwhile investment to see if Perez can revert back to his previous form. From 2002 to 2005, Perez had two ace quality seasons and two league-average seasons. A change of scene may do Perez some good, as he seemed to be unhappy with his situation in LA. I wouldn't be unhappy with a Perez for Dessens straight-up trade, so the prospects added to the deal make it all the better.

Moore was able to grab two young pitchers in the deal as well. Blake Johnson is a 21-year-old righty who had a 4.92 ERA and a 73/19 K/BB ratio in 106 IP at High A. He's given up a lot of hits (121), but that may be related to the defense behind him. The two previous seasons, he allowed 156 hits in 157 innings. Johnson has pretty average stuff with a fastball in the low 90s and a changeup and good curve to complement it. He has some upside, although probably not much more than a mid-rotation starter. He's most similar to Chris Nicoll in the Royals' organization.

Julio Pimentel also pitched for the Dodgers high A team. Pimentel is a 20 year old with a good power arm, reaching the mid-90s. Pimentel projects more as a reliever because his changeup and breaking stuff isn't very reliable. Pimental has struggled this season. He's walked 17 in 31 innings of relief, so moving him to the bullpen hasn't seemed to help much. He draws a lot of similarities to Luis Cota, who has also struggled at High A as a 20-year-old.

In a smaller deal, Moore acquired lefty Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has great stuff, but has never been able to command it in the major leagues. He's only 25 years old and has a high ceiling if he can improve his command. His command in the minors was pretty good, with a 2.1 K/BB ratio. He's had some nagging injury issues that he must overcome as well. He is most similar to a left-handed Denny Bautista, as he's been traded several times and hasn't put together success at the big league level because of injury problems and command issues.

Overall, Moore has done a great job in the past two days of rebuilding the Royals' pitching depth without giving up much of anything. Lumsden, Cortes, Johnson, Pimentel, and De La Rosa are all still young and project as mid-rotation starters or relievers. Coupled with the progress of Buckner, Nicoll, Christensen, Kniginyzky, Rosa, and Cordier in the low minors, the Royals have some good pitching depth finally in the low minors.

Royals Send MacDougal to the South Side

2006-07-24T17:18:00.000-04:00

The Royals just completed a trade sending closer Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for LHP Tyler Lumsden and RHP Daniel Cortes. Lumsden is a 23-year-old, 6'4", 200-pound lefty. Tyler Lumsden was pitching for the White Sox AA team and is having a solid season. Lumsden has a 2.69 ERA in 123 2/3 IP with 40 walks and 72 strikeouts. His WHIP of 1.25 isn't bad and he's allowed only 9 HRs. Lumsden's fastball and slider are his main two pitches. Both have been rated as the top fastball and slider in the White Sox organization during the past two years. Lumsden's fastball sits in the low 90s but can reach the mid 90s. The key for Lumsden has been throwing strikes and he has shown good command at AA, averaging less than 3 walks per 9 innings. Lumsden will head to AA Wichita.

The second pitcher in the deal is Daniel Cortes. The 19-year-old righty is a big pitcher, measuring 6'5" and 205 lbs. Cortes has pitched for the White Sox low A club and done a good job. Cortes has a 4.01 ERA and 38 BBs to 96 K's in 107 2/3 IP. He's allowed just 6 HRs as well and has pitched much better as the season progressed. Cortes is mainly a sinker, slider pitcher, probably closest to a right-handed version of Brent Fisher. Cortes will surrogate the Burlington Bees' strong rotation of Cordier, Rosa, Nicoll, and Kniginyzky.

Overall, it looks like a good trade to me. The Royals badly need starting pitching depth and don't really need a closer at the moment. MacDougal's inconsistency and lengthy trips to the disabled list are good reasons to move him. I'm surprised Dayton Moore got as much for MacDougal as he did since MacDougal just got off the disabled list. Lumsden and Cortes' stock has risen with their good performances this season. Both have shown improved control this year and had success at a higher level. My only concern is putting Burgos in the closer role with no alternative if he struggles. Otherwise, it looks like a good deal for the Royals.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

2006-07-17T20:21:00.000-04:00

The AL Central is the strongest division in baseball with the two best teams in baseball. I will attempt to answer these two questions:

1. How long can we expect the division to remain extremely difficult?
2. How do the Royals matchup talentwise and what can they do to improve?

I will start with the Tigers. Here's a look at the core players the Tigers will be building around in the next few years. Note, the number in parathesis is the year the player becomes a free agent.

The Tigers have a very impressive collection of starting pitchers in their system. Justin Verlander (2012) is a Cy Young contender in his rookie campaign. Jeremy Bonderman (2009) has become a #1 starter with a good fastball and slider combination. Mike Maroth (2009) and Nate Robertson (2010) are solid #2/#3 types and should fill out the rest of the Tigers' rotation. The Tigers signed veteran Kenny Rogers through 2007. By the end of 2007, the Tigers' two other prized pitching prospects will be ready to move into the rotation. Humberto Sanchez pitched great in the Futures game and has the stuff to be another frontline starter. 2006 Draftee Andrew Miller, arguably the top talent in the draft, also has frontline starter potential and could move quickly into the Tigers' rotation. Overall, the Tigers' rotation has an abundance of power arms and 4 starters with #1 stuff and two already performing at that level. The Tigers' bullpen has one of the best ERA's in baseball and has some hard throwers. However, with the exception of Zumaya, none of the bullpen arms are likely to be excellent long-term relievers. Nonetheless, the group of relievers (Grilli, Rodney, Spurling, Colon) give the Tigers a group of cheap, relatively young relievers through the end of the decade.

The Tigers also have a strong offensive core to complement their pitching. The Tigers' offense isn't built around one player, rather 7 different players with .800+ OPSs. Most of the Tigers offensive core is within two years of 30 years ago, so most are in their prime. A few years from now, the Tigers' offense will probably start to decline. However, the Tigers are getting very good production out of centerfielder Curtis Granderson (2012) and Chris Shelton (2011). Marcus Thames is having a breakout season, leading the Tigers with 19 HRs and a 1.027 OPS. Although not particularly young, Thames is under their control until 2011. Cameron Maybin, the Tigers' 2005 first-round selection, has impressed scouts in his debut. He's a potential 5-tool outfielder who played in the Futures game. So, the Tigers have some younger bats who should help offset the decline of the older core players.

Outlook: The Tigers have made one of the most impressive turnarounds in recent baseball times. The Tigers' farm system which was once overlooked because of poor depth has paid off great yields thanks to high draft positions. The Tigers' excellent rotation looks to be one of the best in baseball for the next few years. The Tigers haven't had any problems putting together a good offense and have most of their core players under their control for the next few years. The Tigers aren't afraid to compete for top-tier free agents so they should be able to fill any major holes. Overall, the Tigers look like the most complete team in the division and may have the best pitching staff in baseball for the next few years.

Up next: Chicago White Sox

The AL Central: Present

2006-07-15T15:34:00.000-04:00

The AL Central is the strongest division in baseball, with its two top teams on pace to win over 100 games. The Detroit Tigers have been the surprise team of the year, on pace to win 110 games after losing 119 games just 3 years ago. The White Sox are on pace to win more games than last year's team that won the World Series. The Minnesota Twins are playing well and have two starters have Cy Young-caliber seasons. The Cleveland Indians have had a disappointing season, but still have a good core of young position players to build around. The Royals are in last place as usual. But, even the Royals are somewhat improved and might be more like a 90-100 loss team in most other divisions.

Here's a team-by-team statistical comparison (number in parathesis is ML rank):

Pitching Staff:

ERA:
Detroit 3.53 (1)
Minnesota 4.33 (10)
Chicago 4.47 (14)
Cleveland 4.70 (20)
Kansas City 5.81 (30)

ERA (Starter/Bullpen):
Detroit 3.52/3.55
Chicago 4.60/4.12
Cleveland 4.66/4.71
Minnesota 4.84/3.31
Kansas City 6.26/5.20

Strikeouts:
Minnesota 632 (4)
Detroit 568 (15)
Chicago 531 (26)
Cleveland 520 (27)
Kansas City 444 (30)

Walks:

Minnesota 194 (1) Note: team K/BB over 3!
Chicago 241 (2)
Cleveland 251 (6)
Detroit 263 (7)
Kansas City 354 (28)

The Tigers have the best pitching staff in baseball, anchored by a very strong, young rotation. The Twins, White Sox, and Indians' pitching staffs are in the middle third. The Twins have a great front of the rotation, but have awful #4 and #5 starters. The White Sox rotation has regressed considerably, with every starter except Jose Contreras pitching much worse than last year. The Indians' rotation is pretty average and their bullpen has struggled. The Royals, of course, have the worst pitching staff in baseball.

Offense:

Team OPS:

Chicago .826 (2)
Cleveland .817 (4)
Detroit .790 (8)
Minnesota .757 (17)
Kansas City .736 (26)

Home Runs:

Chicago 135 (1)
Cleveland 120 (4)
Detroit 119 (6)
Minnesota 80 (27)
Kansas City 71 (30)

Runs:

Chicago 528 (1)
Cleveland 498 (4)
Detroit 477 (7)
Minnesota 435 (17)
Kansas City 409 (26)

The White Sox, Indians, and Tigers have pretty potent offenses, supplying very good power. The White Sox offense have one of the best group of power hitters with Thome, Dye, and Konerko. The Indians have a good group of young players supplying most of their offense. The Tigers don't have any standout bats, but are solid from top to bottom. The Twins are finally getting the production they anticipated from Mauer and Morneau, but are still an average offense at best. The Royals' offense is still pretty terrible, not surprisingly.

Defense:

Defensive Efficiency:

Detroit .725 (1)
White Sox .706 (9)
Cleveland .692 (18)
Kansas City .690 (21)
Minnesota .676 (29)

Overall, the division is very strong, which the exception of the Royals. Every team except the Royals is an above .500 team in any other division. The Twins' strong bullpen and two aces have carried their otherwise mediocre team. The Indians have underachieved, scoring 42 runs more than they've allowed. The White Sox have a great offense and decent pitching. The Tigers have the most complete team in baseball. In the next post, I'll breakdown the talent in the division and see if it is likely to remain a difficult division over the next few years.

Midterm Report Card: Part III

2006-07-14T14:34:00.000-04:00

The final installation of the Midterm Report Card focuses on the Royals' coaching, management and ownership. The Royals' management and ownership both share the blame for the terrible state of the organization. Thus, I wasn't very generous with the grading.

The ownership (Mr. Glass and family):
Although the ownership does not directly make baseball decisions, they are ultimately responsible for the people who make the baseball decisions and for the state of the organization. The organization has undergone an unprecedented period of losing, losing more games than ownerless teams of the 1990s. The model franchise of the Ewing Kauffman era has become the national media's favorite baseball team to pick on. The franchise crumbled under the watchful eye of Mr. Glass and he did nothing to stop it.

Everyone knew after last season it wasn't a matter of if, but when Allard was going to be fired. With two consecutive 100-loss seasons with no significant signs of progress, Allard should have been shown the door. Mr. Glass allowed Allard to spend $20-25 million in free agency instead of giving the new GM an opportunity to begin rebuilding the franchise with the players they wanted. That, IMO, only set the organization back further.

The season began and the team started off horribly as expected. Mr. Glass declared major changes were in the works, but didn't say Allard's job was in jeopardy, even though it obviously was. He began the search a year too late, but to his credit, he found the best man for the job, hiring Dayton Moore. The Glass family gave more a $1 million salary and contract until 2010, a pretty nice offer.

Also to Mr. Glass's credit, he is believed to have given Moore written assurance that Moore will have final say in all baseball decisions. What a novel idea! Just give Moore the budget and let him make the decisions. Although Mr. Glass says he never meddled in baseball operations before, there has to be a reason why Moore asked for the written assurance. With the owner out of the way, hopefully Moore will be able to do his job well.

Grade: D, franchise is in a terrible state, but chose the right person to fix it

The Front Office:

Muzzy Jackson: It's hard to evaluate how much involvement Jackson had in the Royals' mediocre offseason. But, he did a good job with the 2006 draft as the interim general manager. The Royals did a good job of filling their main needs through the draft, including getting a potential ace in Luke Hochevar.

Grade: B

Deric Ladnier/Scouting Department: The Royals appear to have had another strong draft. Luke Hochevar was a bit of a surprise at first, but the Royals reasoning seems sound. Jason Taylor, Blake Wood, and Jason Godin are off to good starts in the minor leagues. Derrick Robinson hasn't hit well, but his speed is his greatest asset and his bat may take a while to develop. Overall, that gives the Royals 3 very good drafts in a row.

Grade: A-

Manager/Coaches:

Buddy Bell: Buddy Bell might be the worst Royals' manager in the past decade and that's saying a lot. Bell is a terrible decision making and insists on playing the veterans over the younger, better players. The best example of this is Esteban German. German has been the second-best offensive player on the team. He has the second-best OPS, a great on-base percentage, and good speed. Yet, Bell keeps him out of the lineup as much as possible and usually bats him ninth. His misuse of German as an outfielder was ridiculous and apparently he never forgave German for an error he made there. Bell has also made a habit of using Sisco in critical situations, even though Sisco has been the Royals' most ineffective reliever this season. I'm sure I could come up with more examples of Bell's inept managing, but anyone who has watched the Royals can figure out he's a terrible manager.

Grade: F, hopefully the new manager search is underway

Bob McClure: The Royals' pitching staff is even worse than the Guy Hansen coached staff from last season. Even Guy Hansen was able to get a few positives out of what little talent was on the roster last season. Burgos and Sisco have regressed this season and the bullpen that was supposed to be one of the best in baseball is at the bottom. It's nice not to have Guy Hansen changing every pitcher's mechanics, but McClure hasn't done anything to fix this horrible pitching staff. There isn't much talent to work with, but there's no evidence he's making any progress.

Grade: F, hopefully Moore can bring in a long-term pitching coach

Mike Barnett: The Royals' offense has really improved in the past month or two, which probably has nothing to do with Barnett's coaching. Nonetheless, the offense has been about what was expected.

Grade: C

That's all for the midterm report cards. Coming up, a look at the Royals' farm system and a look at our division foes and the future of the AL Central.

Midterm Report Card: Part II

2006-07-13T14:04:00.000-04:00

The Royals' pitching has been awful this year, which is nothing out of the ordinary. Here's how the Royals rank as a pitching staff:

Overall:
ERA 5.79 (30th)
BBs 347 (28th)
SOs 436 (30th)

Starters:
ERA 6.25 (30th)
BBs 201 (24th)
SOs 206 (30th, by almost 90 Ks)
IP 437 (30th)
which is approximately 5 IP/start

Relievers:
ERA 5.16 (29th)
BBs 146 (28th)
SOs 230 (11th)

These numbers won't really surprise anyone. The starting rotation's K/BB ratio of nearly 1 is atrocious. Combined with their hittable stuff and you get a very bad rotation. The starters' combined ERA is actually worse than last year's 6.00 ERA, which I thought was as bad as it gets. At least we don't have to watch Jose Lima this season.

Onto the grades...

Again, the grades are based on how well the player met preseason expectations.

Starting Rotation:

Scott Elarton: Elarton has kept the Royals in most of his starts and has also pitched relatively deep into games (5.75 IP/start). He hasn't been very good overall and his numbers are getting worse with ERAs of 4.28, 5.54, 5.60, 7.84 in April, May, June, and July. His peripheral stats suggest he's been lucky to do as well as he has. His BB/9IP has doubled from last season and he's allowing 2 HRs/9 IP. If there's anyway to trade Elarton, now would be the time to do it.

Grade: D+, drops a letter grade for having a K/BB of less than 1

Mark Redman: Redman was selected to be the Royals' All-Star representative. Redman has been a slightly better pitcher than Elarton and much better after his injury problems disappared. Redman has posted a 4.05 ERA after June 1st and has gone 7 innings or more in 4 of his last 7 starts. Redman is a league-average pitcher aside from his injury problems, so he's performing at the level he was expected.

Grade: B-, getting better and he's our All-Star!

Runelvys Hernandez: Hernandez put together a decent season coming back from Tommy John Surgery last season. He reported to training camp out of shape and was sent to AAA at the start of the season. After being recalled from AAA, Hernandez was terrible and was sent back down. He's pitched better at AAA (4.76 ERA and better K/BB ratio), but he's still had a horrible year altogether. The Royals were depending on him for a league-average season as a mid-rotation guy and he failed miserably.

Grade: F, get used to Rosenblatt

Denny Bautista: Bautista's promising start in Anaheim last season got everyone excited about his potential. Injuries set him back last year and he hasn't been the same since then. His command is still awful and everyone has hit him well this season. I don't have any confidence that he'll amount to anything, maybe a middle reliever.

Grade: F

Bobby Keppel: Thank you Bobby for the 4 good starts you gave us. Once the league adjusted to Keppel, he quickly faded.

Grade: D

Joe Mays: Mays was worse than Jose Lima and thankfully the Royals released him very quickly.

Grade: F

Brandon Duckworth: Duckworth has been alright as a starter thus far. He certainly hasn't been efficient though, throwing 94-103 pitches in each start and lasting until just the 5th or 6th inning. Duckworth isn't a long-term solution, just a placeholder until Greinke gets ready and keeping Buckner at AA where he belongs.

Grade: D

Seth Etherton: He's been awful throughout his career, so his 9.39 ERA was what I expected.

Grade: C

Bullpen:

Elmer Dessens: Dessens has had a good year for the Royals. I thought Dessens was a pretty good pickup, as he's been a pretty consistent pitcher throughout his career. Dessens has been the Royals' most consistent reliever and has survived Buddy's abuse of him. He was originally intended to be a middle reliever and a spot starter, so he's performed above expectations by doing a good job as a setup man.

Grade: B

Jimmy Gobble: Gobble is the only Royals pitcher who got better. Gobble's command is much better, with a solid 2.3 K/BB ratio. He's striking out almost a batter an inning as well. The Royals' converted Gobble into a starter again. It's too early to draw any conclusions about his starting ability, but he's made 3 starts, 2 good and 1 bad. The Royals should give him at least 7-10 more starts to see if he can be a good starter.

Grade: A, for being the only pitcher to improve

Andrew Sisco: Sisco leads the team in appearances even though he's the most ineffective pitcher on the staff. Sisco only uses one pitch, his fastball. His fastball that sits in the low 90s, down about 4-5 mph from last season. The Royals must send Sisco to the minors. He needs to learn another pitch and fix any mechanical problems he has. He's still very young and can be a dominating setup man or closer with some good coaching. Of course, that won't happen in Kansas City until Moore makes some major changes.

Grade: F

Jeremy Affeldt: Affeldt's career with the Royals is basically over. He's been awful ever since the Royals didn't trade him at the trade deadline last year. He's failed as a starter and a reliever. I wonder if he can hit?

Grade: F, likely offseason trade or non-tender candidate

Mike Wood: Wood hasn't pitched very well this year. His peripheral stats are about the same as last year, so perhaps he's been a bit unlucky. But, he's a middle reliever good for a 4.50-5.50 ERA and that's where he should remain.

Grade: D

Joel Peralta: Peralta has been a decent middle reliever/setup man for the Royals. He pitched well for the Angels last season and has decent stuff, so he was a good waiver pickup by Baird.

Grade: C+, nothing impressive or disappointing

Ambiorix Burgos: Even though he has a 5.98 ERA, Burgos has pitched reasonably well for the Royals. He's pretty much done what you'd expect from a 22-year-old in the closer's role. About 2/3 of the time he's been on and got the job done, and 1/3 of the time he's fought his command. Moving him back to the setup role should help him a lot and he'll be ready to become the closer again in a year or two.

Grade: C

Chris Booker: Booker was awful for the Royals, can't say I was surprised

Grade: C, Booker was horrible, but at least he got out of here quickly and didn't linger around

Todd Wellemeyer and Luke Hudson: Both have pitched well recently for the Royals and have good stuff. They are still pretty young and might be able to turn things around, especially with a team that has infinite patience for anyone who throws hard.

Grade: Incomplete

Midterm Report Card

2006-07-12T15:17:00.000-04:00

The Royals had a pretty bad first half, although it could have been much worse. Before Allard was fired, the team looked like it would certainly challenge the 1962 Mets' record for losses in a single season. Firing Allard seemed to give the team new life and just about everyone has performed much better after the "changes" Glass promised arrived. The Royals' offense improved considerably during the month of June. The return of David DeJesus to the top of the lineup gave the Royals' offense a catalyst. Mark Teahen and John Buck also began to hit well and are finally starting to look like they belong in the major leagues.

While the offense is starting to produce, the pitching staff continues to be absolutely horrible. The Royals' team ERA is 5.79, a half point worse than any other team. The Royals' pitching staff has struck out only 436 hitters, dead last by a mile. The Royals also have the third most walks in the majors. That's a potent combination that results in horrible pitching.

Now, onto the individual player grades, which are based on the expectations at the beginning of the season for each player:

Catcher:

John Buck: Buck had a great month of June, hitting 5 HRs and putting up a .953 OPS. Of course, as quickly as Buck gets hot, he goes right back into a slump. Buck has a .182/.182/.333 line so far in July. Buck has been a very streaky hitter and is awful when he isn't hitting well. Buck has struggled against righties, putting up a .228/.273/.379 line against them. Against lefties, Buck is hitting .274/.361/.500. That's a huge differential and might be enough to keep Buck from being more than a half-time player unless he can improve his numbers against righties. His defense behind the plate is pretty good and he's done alright at throwing out baserunners (11 CS in 33 attempts, spot on his career average).

Grade: C-, his plate discipline has shown some improvement (better K/BB ratio), but he needs to contribute more consistently, especially against righties.

Paul Bako: There is no evidence that this guy contributes anything to this team. Buddy Bell uses him against righties, but even Buck's .652 OPS against righties is far better. Hopefully, the Royals can dispose of Bako and give Phillips or Tupman a chance to give Buck some competition.

Grade: F, raised to a D if he voluntary retires

First Basemen/DH

Doug Mientkiewicz: Mientkiewicz has played well for the Royals. His defense has been outstanding, contrary to his -6 FRAA. FWIW, Emil Brown is +4 FRAA, so that statistic seems to have some issues. Mientkiewicz has been out of place as the No. 3 hitter, but he's hit as well as expected. Mientkiewicz has a .783 OPS, which is below-average but serviceable for a first basemen.

Grade: B, solid offensive performance and great defense

Matt Stairs: Stairs has hit pretty well in a platoon role so far. Stairs has a .828 OPS and 8 HRs so far in 165 ABs. He's a nice hitter to have in a limited role, but hopefully he retires after this season and the Royals can give Justin Huber an everyday position.

Grade: B, good job and not being overused

Tony Graffanino: Graffanino is a nice utility infielder, but apparently Bell didn't get the message because he's playing everyday. Graffanino has been pretty average for an infielder at the plate, with a .272/.330/.405 line. I'm not really sure why the Royals brought him back since all he does is take away playing time from Esteban German, who has the second-highest OPS on the team.

Grade: C, he's doing his job, it's Bell's use of him that's the problem

Second Basemen:

Mark Grudzielanek: Grudzielanek has pretty much met expectations. His main job was stabilizing the #2 spot in the lineup and improving the infield defense. Grudzielanek is nearly on pace to score 100 runs, which is rather amazing considering the hitters in the middle of the lineup. He's a solid veteran and a good leader.

Grade: B, done everything he's been asked

Esteban German: German has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals. When Buddy lets him play, he's done a great job of getting on-base. He has a good track record of getting on-base and stealing bases in the minors and it appears those attributes have translated to the majors. The Royals haven't used his speed much, but he's 3 for 4 on stolen base attempts. The only downside to German's play has been his defense. However, he hasn't seen much time at 2nd base, his main position. So, it's hard to tell if he could be a regular 2nd basemen after Grudzielanek leaves.

Grade: B+, nice surprise

Shortstop:

Angel Berroa: Berroa is a talented, toolsy guy. The Berroa who almost put up a 20-20 season his rookie year has vanished because everyone knows he'll swing at bad pitches. His horrible plate discipline and inconsistent fielding drive every Royals' fan crazy. Hopefully, the Royals can get rid of him to a team intrigued by his tools or just cut their losses.

Grade: F

Third Basemen

Mark Teahen: Before being sent down much to Allard's dismay, Teahen was hitting .195/.241/.351. Teahen tore up AAA pitching and returned a much improved hitter. His approach is much better and he seems much more comfortable at the plate. Teahen is starting to use the entire field and is pulling the ball for power. In spite of a slow start, Teahen now has a respectable .767 OPS and appears to be becoming a solid third basemen.

Grade: C+, nice to see the power starting to come

Outfielders:

Emil Brown: Emil Brown has regressed somewhat this year, not displaying as much power as last year. His slugging percentage is down to .418 from .455 last season. His defense is still not very good, but he's cut back on the errors (just 1 so far after committing 12 last year). Overall, he's pretty much done what expected.

Grade: C

Joey Gathright: The Royals acquired Gathright to add speed and improve the outfield defense. He's certainly added speed and I noticed it making a difference in the Toronto game I went to this past week. If he can get on-base at a good rate, then he can be a valuable asset. Otherwise, his singles stick won't supply enough offense to warrant keeping DeJesus at a corner outfield spot. His great speed will help make up for his weak arm, making him an above-average defender.

Grade: Incomplete, not enough time to evaluate him

David DeJesus: David DeJesus has played a major role in the Royals' turnaround in June. It's not a coincidence that the offense has been immensely better since DeJesus returns, as he's become a very good hitter. DeJesus does a great job of getting on-base (.404 OBP) and has the second-best sluggling percentage (.477). Put those two stats together and he has one of the best OPS among centerfielders. DeJesus has become an above-average centerfielder and should be a solid contributor at the top of the lineup as long as he stays healthy.

Grade: A, he's everything Berroa isn't, getting the most out of his talent and pleasing the fans

Reggie Sanders: When Sanders signed a 2-year, $10 million, I was pretty skeptical that the 38-year-old would be worth a two-year deal. I figured he'd bring decent power (9 HRs isn't awful), but his increasing age and poor plate discipline were worrisome. His streakiness and frequent strikeouts make it difficult to rely on him as a cleanup hitter. He's a tolerable option for this season, but I don't think the Royals can rely on him next year.

Grade: D

I think I graded a bit too easy, but I was grading on how well the player's met expectations and it seems most of them did. Hence, all of the B's and C's. The pitching staff, however, is a completely different story. I will cover the Royals' pitching staff tomorrow as well as the team's management and ownership.

Royals' Future All-Stars Shine

2006-07-10T15:10:00.000-04:00

The USA team beat the World team in the All-Star Futures Game. The Royals two prized prospects had a great showing. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon went a combined 4 for 6 with 4 RBIs. Billy Butler won the MVP award for the game. Billy Butler flashed his great power, hitting a home run to centerfield. Alex Gordon hit a double as well. Both players looked major-league ready at the plate. I was impressed with their plate discipline. Before hitting the home run, Butler worked the count and fouled off several pitches. He then hit a towering home run to centerfield. Butler made a nice grab on a deep fly to left field. He didn't seem to get the best read on the ball, but he got back in time. He looks pretty slow out there though. He probably will end up as a DH eventually, but there's no harm in letting him try and improve as much as possible. If everything goes according to plan, Butler and Gordon should be a mainstay in the heart of the Royals' lineup for the next 5 or 6 years. The Royals have a improving group of complementary players who can fill out the rest of the lineup. But, Gordon and Butler are the key to a potent offense.

Elsewhere around the minors:

Omaha lost 4-2. Hernandez wasn't very good as usual, allowing 4 runs and 9 hits in 6 innings. MacDougal pitched a scoreless inning of relief, so everything appears set for his return. Justin Huber went 1 for 2 with a walk and Costa went 1 for 4.

Wichita lost 9-7, as most of their offense was in Pittsburgh. Lubanski had a great day, going 3 for 4 with a triple (5). Maier went 0 for 3, but had 2 RBIs (57). Donnie Murphy went 2 for 4 with a double and a homerun. Murphy has pretty much disappeared after the premature callups.

High Desert won 15-4. Unfortunately, there isn't much on this ballclub. Mostly organizational players except for Cota and maybe Gilbert de la Vara.

Burlington won 5-3. Rayner Oliveros had a good start, going 6 2/3 innings and allowing just 1 run on 3 hits and striking out 7.

Idaho Falls had a the day off.

The Arizona Royals won 8-3. Brent Fisher had a good performance on the mound. Fisher allowed no hits and just 1 run and struck out 5. The Royals' 2006 4th Round Pick Derrick Robinson went 1 for 5 with a double. Fisher and Bianchi will probably be promoted soon. Bianchi had the day off, so hopefully he is headed to Idaho Falls.

Royals Fall 7-5 to the Blue Jays

2006-07-09T01:45:00.000-04:00

I went to my second game in a row tonight. The game was on the Royals, so all the better. The outcome of the game was rather disappointing, but it was a fun night nonetheless.

Scott Elarton didn't have good command of anything today. His stuff got hit hard as he wasn't able to keep it out of the middle of the plate. Elarton gave up 5 runs on 9 hits, exiting in the 4th inning. Sisco came in and pitched well, providing 2 2/3 innings of scoreless relief and allowing the Royals to regain the lead. Sisco's command was better today, although his velocity was still pretty low (90-91 mph). Peralta came in to pitch the 7th inning and promptly gave up a homer to Shea Hillenbrand and that was the ballgame. The Blue Jays' bullpen shutdown the Royals' offense, allowing just 2 hits and no runs in 4 innings.

The Royals did alright against Ted Lilly. Berroa hit his 5th homerun, a deep shot into the top of the left field fountains. Berroa has good power. Unfortunately, everyone knows not to give him a decent pitch to hit because he'll swing at plenty of bad pitches and get himself out. Berroa had yet another fielding blunder which was charged to John Buck. Berroa forgot to cover 2nd on a stolen base attempt and the throw went out into centerfield...Typical Berroa.

It wasn't a terrible game and appeared winnable after Sisco's solid outing. But the Royals' makeshift bullpen was outdueled by the Blue Jays. Overall, I wasn't very impressed by the Blue Jays from the two games I saw. The Blue Jays played horrible defense, committing lots of errors on routine plays. The two middle infielders, Adams and Hill, were particularly bad. Justin Speier and BJ Ryan pitched well, but other than that, the bullpen looked pretty shaky. The offense was the most impressive part of the team, with a lot of good contact hitters and good power from Wells and Overbay. The AL East race looks to be between Boston and New York unless the Blue Jays can make some moves to improve the bullpen and the defense. They won't get far without pitching and defense.

On to the minors:

Omaha lost 8-7 to the Iowa Cubs. Shane Costa hit his 5th homerun, going 1 for 3 with 2 walks. Costa is hitting .418/.487/.759 after 79 ABs in AAA. Costa is right where he belongs right now and should spend the rest of the season at AAA. Costa has always been a good contact hitter and it appears the power may be starting to come. Justin Huber is slowly emerging from his Baird/Bell-induced slump. Huber went 2 for 4 with a double, raising his average to .262. Huber's .805 OPS is still nothing to complain about, especially with the Royals trying to change his position. Huber was in left field tonight. MacDougal pitched a scoreless inning and struck out 2. MacDougal should return to the big league club shortly after the All-Star Break. Nunez allowed 2 inherited runners to score, getting a blown save. Overall, the 22-year-old Nunez has pitched very well with a 1.10 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings.

Wichita lost 5-4 to Arkansas. Greinke had another good rehab start, going 6 innings and allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits. Greinke walked 1 and struck out 7. He is just a few more quality starts away from returning to the big league club, although there's no rush. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon didn't play because they are on their way to the Futures Game. Hopefully, they will be our two All-Star delegates in a couple of years. Mitch Maier hit his 10th homer, going 3 for 4 and driving in 2 runs (55). Maier is having a pretty good season and was considered the best defensive outfielder in the system by Allard. Ryan Braun had a rough night, allowing 3 runs in 1 1/3 innings. Overall, Braun's numbers are very good, with 58 strikeouts and only 16 walks in 40 2/3 innings.

High Desert lost 5-1. Not much to talk about there.

Burlington won 5-4. Josh Johnson went 1 for 5 with a double (4). Johnson's great on-base skills are keeping his prospect status alive, with a great .417 OBP. The two catchers drafted by the Royals last year, Everett and Howell, both doubled. Carlos Rosa had a pretty good outing, allowing just 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Dayton Moore mentioned Rosa as one of the Royals' prospects who had impressed him on his first tour of the minors. Rosa has struck out 68 in 87 innings. The Bees have a good rotation going with Rosa, Nicoll, Kinginyzky, and Cordier.

Idaho Falls won 2-0. Rowdy Hardy had a great start, striking out 10 in 6 1/3 innings and allowing just 2 hits. In 22 innings, he has struck out 21 and walked 0! Peay State University lefty has pitched very well so far.

The Arizona Royals' game was postponed. The Arizona Royals have a couple of players repeating the level who don't have much left to prove there. Jeffrey Bianchi continues to destroy Arizona League pitching with a .429/.539/.667. Brent Fisher has been very good as well, with a 2.30 ERA and 17 K's to 4 walks. Both of those guys appear to be ready to head to Idaho Falls. The Royals' 2006 mystery pick, Jason Taylor, is off to a very good start. Taylor is hitting .452/.485/.548 after 31 ABs. Perhaps Taylor will be Bianchi Part II? The Royals have done a good job of spotting good high school hitters in recent drafts.

Great Night at the K

2006-07-08T00:40:00.000-04:00

The game tonight was one of the best I've ever experienced in person. Everything went right for the Royals and they played very well. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, looked terrible, committing 3 errors and not pitching well.

Luke Hudson had a good first start for the Royals. He did a good job of commanding his fastball and the Blue Jays' hitters made weak contact against him. His 4-seam fastball was from 94 to 97 mph on the radar gun and his 2-seam was 88 to 91 mph. He did a good job of changing speeds with his fastball and it did enough to disrupt the hitter's timing. His curveball looked good, although he didn't throw it much and his command of it was inconsistent. Nonetheless, he had a very good first start. I'm concerned that he relies on his fastball too much and if he doesn't have command of it, he'll have a rough night. But, the Hudson starting experiment is off to a good start and should continue because he has good stuff and has had success as a starter. Hudson was 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA in 9 starts for the Reds in 2004.

The Royals' offense had a great night, scoring 13 runs on 15 hits and 3 errors by the Blue Jays. Everyone except Emil Brown, who had a forgettable night, contributed to the Royals' offensive surge. DeJesus and Mientkiewicz both had 3-hit games and drove in 3 runs. DeJesus is having a great season. His OBP of .407 is outstanding and he's scored 32 runs in 44 games. DeJesus is a very solid all-around baseball player. He's not nearly as talented as Beltran, but he's a solid contributor at the top of the lineup.

Matt Stairs and John Buck both hit their 8th homeruns of the season. It seems like every Royals game I attend, Matt Stairs hits a homerun. Buck's power has always shown throughout his young career with 32 homeruns in 834 ABs. He's already averaging about 15 HRs a season if he gets 400+ ABs. With Buck's plate discipline improving (much improved K/BB) and his solid defense behind the plate, he has become a solid player for the Royals.

Another guy who impressed me tonight was Joey Gathright. He created the first run of the night by creating havoc on the basepaths. Burnett got distracted by him at first and made a poor throw to pick him off and he took second. Gathright tagged on a flyball and then scored later on a sac fly (no other Royal probably could have scored there except for maybe German). Since joining the Royals, Gathright is 12 for 38 (.316 avg) with 9 walks (.447 OBP). Gathright has been doing a very good job of getting on base. If he can keep getting on base and the Royals use his speed wisely, he and DeJesus will give the Royals lots of scoring opportunities. Gathright was caught stealing in the 5th inning, but the Devil Rays and everyone in the stadium anticipated it. The Royals were, however, very aggressive on the basepaths today and it usually paid off. Teahen and Brown both had stolen bases.

The bullpen made the game interesting before the Royals scored 9 unanswered runs in the final two innings. Affeldt had trouble commanding his stuff as usual. Dessens command wasn't much better. Wellemeyer gave the Royals two solid innings to finish the game. Wellemeyer has good stuff, throwing in the mid 90s and had pretty good control of his fastball today. He has pitched pretty well since joining the Royals.

Overall, it was another very good game for the Royals. The Royals are 7-2 so far in July and are playing very well. A .400 winning percentage isn't so far away is it? The offense continues to score plenty of runs with the young players hitting well and solid performances from the veterans as well. Amazing, the Royals are only 2 games below .500 at home.

This team has been much more enjoyable to watch. Fortunately, I was in England for most of the bad part of the season, so I was able to avoid most of the horrible start. The fans got a lot of freebies tonight. The Royals gave away free Cooler Bags to the fans before the game. The Royals had twelve hits and won, so fans receive a dozen doughnuts and a free frosty from Wendy's. The Friday night fireworks spectacular had "technical difficulties", so the fans can use their ticket stub as a raincheck for a free Royals' game. I was quite surprised the Royals gave the fans a free game. I was expecting 50 cents off a small Pepsi or something, but that was really nice. A classy move by an organization that hasn't been classy for nearly a decade. On top of that, we got to watch a great game tonight.

Here's a few pictures from tonight's game:

Royals Set to Sweep the Cards

2006-07-02T09:58:00.000-04:00

The Royals will have a chance to sweep the Cardinals today in St. Louis. The Royals won 8-7 yesterday in 11 innings, even after blowing a 6-run lead. The Royals had 3 outstanding offensive performances yesterday. David DeJesus had a 4-hit game, scoring 3 runs. DeJesus leaped over the catcher and nearly scored on a play he should have been out by a mile. Mark Teahen hit his 6th homerun of the year, a nice blast to RF. Teahen has been pulling the ball a lot more and it's starting to show with improved power. DeJesus and Teahen's return to the club have played a major role in the Royals' recent success.

The Royals' piecemeal bullpen managed to keep the Royals in the game yesterday, in spite of two blown saves by Burgos and Peralta. Wellemeyer and Hudson worked around trouble to keep the Cardinals from scoring. The Royals will send Mike Wood to the hill today. Mike Wood has been alright as a starter. In his 5 starts in June, he has a 4.56 ERA with a solid 11/3 K/BB ratio.

The Teahen/Gordon Debate: Teahen is finally starting to look like a legit major league third basemen. He's a solid defender at third and is starting to show some power. Teahen is basically the second-coming of Joe Randa, as most scouts projected him to be. He might have a few 20+ homerun seasons since he is much stronger than Randa, but he looks like a 15-20 HR guy. Gordon, however, projects to be as good or better than Teahen in every aspect. Gordon has superior hitting ability, most likely better speed, and should be at least as good a defender as Teahen. So, I think Teahen is the obvious choice to move to a different position. I don't think you take a chance by moving your prized prospect from his natural position.

This decision probably won't have to be made until next year at the earliest. There will be plenty of time to see how improved Teahen is and maybe showcase him for a trade. Moving him off 3rd certainly decreases his value, but I'd much rather decrease Teahen's value than Gordon's. What do you think?

Great weekend for the Royals

2006-06-26T17:49:00.000-04:00

The Royals had a great weekend, winning both games against the Brewers. The start of Saturday's game didn't look promising, as Brandon Duckworth struggled against the Brewers. Fortunately, after a 4-run top of the 4th by the Brewers, the Royals answered with a 5-run bottom of the 4th. Duckworth made it through five innings, but allowed 10 hits, 3 walks, and 5 runs. The mysterious Keppel and Duckworth have quickly been figured out it appears. Hopefully, they can adjust to the hitters and be serviceable for the rest of the season.

On a positive note, the bullpen finished the game strong with 4 scoreless innings. Dessens continues to be solid in long relief. The Royals have him signed through next year and his bullpen help is very welcome. Burgos picked up his 12th save Saturday night, striking out 2. Since June 8th, Burgos has picked up 5 saves and allowed just 1 run in 8 1/3 innings.

Sunday's game brought a great performance by Mark Redman and the bullpen, shutting out the Brewers. Redman has pitched well in June after a horrible start. David DeJesus had a great weekend, going 5 for 9 with 2 RBIs and a pair of doubles. When DeJesus produces, the Royals seem to get plenty of offense. Gobble picked up his first save, striking out 2. Gobble has been one of the Royals' best relievers. His improved command and strikeout abilities would make him a good candidate to start again.

July should be interesting for the Royals. They should finally get Greinke, MacDougal and Sweeney back and perhaps we'll see the team that could have been? The veteran acquistions haven't underperformed as bad as typical Baird signings do. Grudzielanek, Sanders, Mientkiewicz, Elarton and Dessens haven't been spectacular, but they've pretty much done what everyone expected. With the young players starting to produce again (Teahen, Buck, DeJesus) and the Royals' best players getting healthy (hopefully), perhaps the second half will be much more pleasant to watch.

The Royals have a few players being mentioned in trade rumors. Sanders, Mientkiewicz, Elarton, and Redman may interest a few contenders. I'll weigh the pros and cons of dealing them in a future post.

Royals' Winning Streak Ends

2006-06-24T14:26:00.000-04:00

The Royals' 4-game winning streak ended yesterday as the Royals' offense couldn't manage much against Brewers' starter Dave Bush. Bobby Keppel struggled, lasting just 2 1/3 innings and allowing 5 runs on 8 hits and a walk. Typical Royal starter line there, except there's usually about 3 or 4 more walks. Affeldt pitched nicely in mopup duty, going much longer than usual (4 innings).

Hopefully, the Royals aren't ready to give up on Keppel yet. Keppel is still pretty young (23) and has pretty good stuff. He certainly deserves a few more starts before the Royals try to find another AAA starter to do no better. If he keeps on struggling, Jimmy Gobble should be the first to get another shot at starting. Gobble has figured out how to strike major-league hitters out and has improved his command. In 38 innings, Gobble has struck out 31 and walked just 12. That's much, much better than Affeldt, who is more or less finished as a Royal as far as I'm concerned.

Onto the good news, prior to last night's game, the Royals won 6 out of their last 9 games and 4 in a row. The Royals' offense cranked out 38 runs in 4 games, an impressive feat for a lineup of retread veterans and mediocre young talent. Leading the Royals' offensive surge is John Buck, who has an excellent .304/.403/.547 line for the month of June. Buck is pretty awful at the plate most of the time, but he gives you a couple good months during the season. Another youngster in the lineup who's had a solid month is Mark Teahen, who has a nice .318/.357/.470 line. It's nice to have some production from the bottom of the lineup, especially with Berroa down there contributing nothing.

The Royals take on the Brewers in the second game of the series tonight and send Brandon Duckworth to the mound. Duckworth has pitched well in his first two starts and hopefully will continue his success tonight.

Royals Trade JP Howell for Joey Gathright

2006-06-21T11:29:00.000-04:00

The Royals' new GM made his first trade yesterday, trading lefty JP Howell for CF Joey Gathright and a middle infielder who doesn't matter. Howell has pitched fairly well at AAA, particularly before his shoulder problems began. The Devil Rays get a lefty who has had a solid track record in the minors, but also has some questionmarks with his stuff and possibly injuries. The Royals get a centerfielder who has struggling mightily at the plate, but might have the best speed in baseball.

Gathright's minor league track record: Gathright's minor league career line is .316/.390/.361. He's very much a singles hitter, but he does get on-base at a very good rate. Throughout his minor league career, Gathright has stolen 165 bases in 215 attempts (77 percent).

What the Royals get: Joey Gathright's excellent speed should give the Royals a great basestealer and improve the Royals' outfield defense. Gathright has a great track record of stealing bases. Gathright has stolen 38 bases in 47 attempts (81 percent) in 150 major-league games. It's not unreasonable to think that Gathright could steal 40 or 50 bases on a regular basis, something the Royals haven't seen since Vince Coleman/Tom Goodwin. Moving DeJesus to the No. 2 spot in the lineup probably suits him better, with his gap power, great on-base skills, and above-average speed. If Gathright can get on-base, the Royals should have much improved scoring ability at the top of the lineup.

Now the big question, can Gathright hit enough to make his speed a worthwhile asset to the Royals and be enough of an improvement of David DeJesus in CF? If you believe Gathright's defensive stats, he will be a slight improvement over DeJesus. In 135 games in CF, Gathright is 3 FRAA. DeJesus is a career 0 FRAA in CF. DeJesus will be an above-average corner outfielder defensively. However, he is likely to be a below-average corner outfielder offensively. So, here's another question for you, is Gathright's speed worth taking away a typical spot (LF) for one of your best hitters?
If his OBP is close to his minor-league numbers and he steals 40 or 50 bases, then I'd say so.

How this trade hurts the Royals: The Royals gave up a young lefty who has very solid minor league numbers in spite of the Royals' rushing him. Howell is rather unconventional since he doesn't throw very hard and few starters throw as softly as he does. However, his secondary stuff is very good and his sinker does a good job of getting grounders. So, if he can control his fastball and keep it out of the middle of the plate, he can become a mid-rotation guy at best and more likely a No. 4 or 5 starter. That said, the Royals have plenty of back-of-the-rotation fodder, so this isn't a big loss. Still, if he does turn out to be an average starter, he'll be a bargain for the next 6 years and be more valuable than Gathright.

My take on the trade: Overall, the trade seems like a worthwhile risk. I hate giving up young pitching talent, especially when you look at the Royals' current rotation. Howell has had very good minor league success, but I think big league hitters can hit his stuff. He can't afford to miss his spots, otherwise his stuff will get hit hard. The future of the Royals' rotation depends on guys like Greinke and Hockevar developing into frontline starters. So, they can afford to give up Howell at this point. There might be some behind the scenes info we don't know about, perhaps about Howell's arm.

Top Prospect Update

2006-06-17T20:51:00.000-04:00

The Royals' farm system continues to improve, despite setbacks to a few of last year's top prospects. The Royals' 2006 draft should help add depth and talent to a system that badly needs pitching help. Luke Hockevar is a tremendous talent who has ace potential and shouldn't be in the farm system long. Harold Mozingo is a polished college righty who is a steal in the sixth round. Blake Wood and Jason Godin are a couple of college righties who have good upside as starters, but aren't as polished as what you'd expect from a college starter. Overall, the draft should help to strengthen the Royals' pitching depth and it'll be interesting to watch these players at Idaho Falls once short-season ball starts in a week or two.

Onto the top prospect list:

1. Alex Gordon 3B/22: Gordon has done nothing to disappoint in his first full season in the minors. He has a very good .926 OPS and has stolen 14 bases in 15 attempts. Gordon will be a good candidate for a September callup, unless the Royals decide to delay his service time and keep him in the minors at the start of next year.

.305/.408/.518 226 ABs 19 2Bs 9 HRs 30 RBIs 14 SBs

2. Luke Hockevar SP/22: The Royals are beginning negoiations with Scott Boras. Hopefully the negotiations will go smoothly as the Royals would have been foolish to draft Hockevar if they didn't know what they'd have to pay him. Then again, you can't ever be sure when you're dealing with Boras.

3. Billy Butler OF/20: Butler is doing incredibly well at AA for a 20-year-old. Butler has a .881 OPS. He's only made 4 errors, so perhaps that's a sign he's becoming a serviceable outfielder defensively. If he doesn't, it doesn't look like he'll have any problems hitting enough as a first basemen or DH. After all, it's not like you have to hit to be the Royals' first basemen or DH, just ask Doug Mientkiewicz or Matt Stairs.

.318/.381/.500 264 ABs 18 2Bs 10 HRs 48 RBIs

4. Justin Huber 1B or OF/23: Huber is still very young and while he isn't putting up great numbers at AAA, he's still doing pretty well. Considering he sat and did nothing for the Royals because Bell is a moron and the Royals are trying him in the outfield (not a bad idea really), Huber is going through a lot. So, it's not surprising his numbers aren't great. He hasn't looked great in his major league appearances, but he hasn't really been given a chance yet. He should at least provide the Royals with a younger and better Matt Stairs-type player.

.253/.338/.461 178 ABs 6 2Bs 9 HRs 18 RBIs

5. JP Howell 23/SP: Howell has been dealing with a stiff shoulder. Before the injury, he was pitching very well. In his last two outings, he's pitched very well, allowing no runs in 6 1/3 innings and just 2 hits.

3-2 4.75 ERA 36 IP 39 Hits 3 HRs 14 BBs 33 SOs

6. Billy Buckner 22/SP: Buckner is having a good season at High Desert after struggling there last season. Buckner has a fantastic curve, which alone should get him to the majors. His strikeout numbers are promising, with 73 strikeouts in 81 innings. 6 HRs in 81 innings is very impressive, especially for the California League. He better not get used to that winning record though.

7-1 3.65 ERA 81.1 IP 84 Hits 6 HRs 39 BBs 73 SOs

7. Jeffrey Bianchi 19/SS: Bianchi had a great debut last season and scouts were very impressed with his speed and power. He'll start at Idaho Falls shortly.

8. Chris Nicoll 22/SP: Nicoll is dominating Midwest League hitters. Nicoll has struck out 65 in 66 innings and his control remains good (just 18 walks). His WHIP is a mere 0.97. He should be due for a promotion shortly.

3-4 2.45 ERA 66 IP 46 Hits 4 HRs 18 BBs 65 SOs

9. Chris Lubanski 21/OF: Lubanski has struggled at AA so far, with just a .694 OPS. He's still very young for AA and while he won't live up to his draft status, he might become a decent outfielder in a couple of years.

.239/.316/.378 251 ABs 16 2Bs 5 HRs 25 RBIs 4 SBs

10. Mitch Maier 23/OF: Maier is having a solid season at AA. Maier is solid overall, with good offensive and defensive abilities. He can play all outfield positions and should hit well enough to be at least a solid backup outfielder with his versatility. He could be the Royals' rightfielder next year if Sanders is traded.

.298/.353/.473 258 ABs 15 2Bs 8 HRs 45 RBIs 6 SBs

11. Luis Cota 20/SP: The young righty is struggling at High Desert. Cota's lack of secondary stuff will make it difficult for him to advance through the minors for a while. He must improve his secondary pitches and his command. He has the upside to become a top starter, but is still a long ways away.

3-6 6.91 ERA 71.2 IP 82 Hits 9 HRs 33 BBs 61 SOs

12. Ryan Braun 25/RP: Braun is a bit old for AA, but he's having a great season. Braun has a great power arm and could reach KC this year with the bullpen problems.
His strikeout numbers are very impressive.

1-5 1.98 ERA 9 Saves 36.1 IP 25 Hits 2 HRs 16 BBs 52 SOs

13. Angel Sanchez 22/SS: Sanchez pretty young for AA as well. He hasn't shown much power, but unlike Berroa, he isn't afraid to draw a walk.

.288/.354/.362 11 2Bs 2 HRs 27 RBIs

14. Danny Christensen 22/SP: Christensen has struggled after getting off to a get start at High Desert. His K/BB is great, with 80 strikeouts to 20 walks. The lefty has a very good curve.

1-4 5.78 ERA 76.1 IP 100 Hits 13 HRs 20 BBs 80 SOs

15. Harold Mozingo 6th Round 2006 pick: I see him having success and following a track like Nicoll.

16. Chris McConnell (oops, dropped him a bit too far)
17. Matt Kniginyzky RHP
18. Jason Taylor SS (position change imminent)
19. Andres Blanco SS
20. Derrick Robinson OF

2006 Draft in Review

2006-06-10T13:21:00.000-04:00

The Pine Tar Rag did a great job of recapping the draft and provides some great info on it: The Pine Tar Rag

Here are my thoughts about the draft after disgusting the info a bit more:

After watching Luke's scouting video again and watching the videos of Miller, Lincoln, and Lincecum, I'm a little more pleased with the selection. I can't quarrel with the Royals' reasoning for taking Hochevar. He's already had success against wood bats in an advanced league (High A or AA). Hochevar's video is impressive and his fastball has good velocity. He has a more complete repertoire than Miller, at the moment he's the best of the bunch. Miller has more upside in my opinion. Tall, hard-throwing lefties with an outstanding slider are rare. But, he would have probably would have been harder to sign (asking for a million or two more) and probably wouldn't pitch this year. Hochevar will probably sign quickly and report to an advanced league right away. It took me a while to get used to the surprise pick, but it's growing on me. Hochevar will probably cost a million or two less than an average first-round pick, so hopefully the money will go somewhere else toward player development or the draft.

First impression: Good, got a potential future ace who should advance quickly

Round 2: Jason Taylor, SS, Floyd E. Kellam HS, Virginia Beach, Va.:

There isn't much information available about Taylor and he wasn't on baseball america's top 100 prospect list for the draft. The Royals have picked out some good high school hitters in the past few drafts (Butler, Bianchi, Dickerson), so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt here. Here's some more info about Taylor: Jason Taylor

First impression: Trusting the Royals on this one

Round 3: Blake Wood, RHP, Georgia Tech: Wood had a disappointing year for a preseason All-American, with a 5.04 ERA. Wood's 2005 season was much better, with a 3.13 ERA and 74 SOs and 24 BBs in 106 IP. Wood has a decent fastball sitting at 92-94 mph with some tailing motion. His slider also looked pretty good in the MLBTV video. He has good size for a pitcher and might have some projection remaining, so the Royals should probably keep him as a starter (teach him a third pitch). Wood wasn't projected to go this high, but the Royals might get a steal if he regains his 2005 form. Wood is a mechanical engineering major, so at least the Royals didn't draft another pitcher with nothing upstairs.

First impression: Good potential, but there were better players available

Round 4: Derrick Robinson, OF, P.K. Yonge Laboratory School, Gainesville, Fla.: Robinson committed to play corner for Florida, but he will sign with the Royals. Robinson's greatest asset is his speed. His video showed that very good speed as well as a decent swing, although he wasn't making very good contact. He hit .488 this past season, but didn't manage much in the power department.

First impression: Good, Royals added some much needed speed

Round 5: Jason Godin, RHP, Old Dominion: Godin is a strikeout fiend, racking up 146 K's in 115 innings. Godin has a solid repertoire of 3 pitches and good command of them, walking just 38 this season.

First impression: Good, another solid pitching addition

Round 6: Harold Mozingo, RHP, Virginia Commonwealth: Mozingo might make up for the reaches at 2 and 3. Mozingo was in Baseball America's top 100. Mozingo sounds a lot like Chris Nicoll, the Royals' 3rd round pick last year. He has terrific command and has some projection remaining.

First impression: Very good

Round 7: Brett Bigler, OF, California-Riverside: Bigler, like Robinson, adds speed and defense to the organization.

First impression: Good

Round 8: Joshua Cribb, RHP, Clemson: Cribb is only 5'9", but he put up decent numbers for Clemson.

First impression: Okay

Best of the rest:

Round 19: Jeffrey Inman: Inman has committed to Stanford, so he'd require a good signing bonus to break that commitment. Inman has good command of a fastball, curve, and change and has plenty of room for growth.

First impression: Worthwhile risk, Royals need more younger arms with projection

Overall impression of the draft: The Royals had a good draft. They focused on the two biggest needs of the organization: pitching and defense. The Royals drafted 5 college (including Hochevar) pitchers, giving them solid pitchers who can advance through the system quickly. The Royals also added two speedy centerfielders. I would give the Royals draft a B at the moment. There isn't anything that stands out as being great, but the Royals addressed their needs well by drafting college pitching. A few more high school arms with greater potential or another power hitter might have helped balance the draft better, but they did a good job overall.

New GM and the Draft

2006-06-08T07:47:00.001-04:00

I had a feeling when I left on my trip three weeks ago that the organization would be considerably different after I returned and it appears I was right.

The “changes” have begun. As the Daily Lancer reported, Dayton Moore is about to become the team’s general manager (press conference today). I couldn’t be happier with the Royals’ choice for general manager and it sounds like the Royals are making the changes needed to get the organization back on track. In particular, it appears that the Glass family has changed their role in the organization, relinquishing the control of baseball operations to the new general manager. Moore is considering one of the best young GM candidates and has a good track record with an organization that has developed good young talent. He also comes from an organization that has been built around pitching, so hopefully he will be able to rebuild the Royals organization in a similar manner. I was very skeptical that the Royals would make a good choice for general manager. I also didn’t think Mr. Glass would give up control of baseball operations, which would also restrict the candidate pool. Surprisingly, it appears that Mr. Glass made the right decision and the organization can start rebounding with the right general manager.

The Royals selected Luke Hochevar with the first-overall pick, surprising the baseball world. Most of the discussion had focused around North Carolina left-hander Andrew Miller, who was selected by the Tigers. Most publications considered Miller as the best talent in the draft, although there isn’t considerable separation among the top few college pitchers. Miller ended up with the Tigers, who are amassing an impressive collection of power arms in their organization. Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow and Tim Lincecum also drew consideration.

This is just my speculation, but I’m guessing the Royals had about $4 million to spend on their pick and Andrew Miller exceeded that, so they passed on him. So, the Royals thought that Hochevar was the best talent among the rest of the available college pitchers. Was Miller worth an extra million or two? Tall, hard-throwing lefties don’t come around very often, especially with the stuff Miller has. The Royals will take a lot of heat if Miller turns out to be a great pitcher and they passed up on him. The Royals had 5 very good college pitchers to choose from and hopefully they picked the right one.

Here’s the mlb.com video of Hochevar: Hochevar Video

Hochevar’s fastball showed good sinking action and his curve looked very good. However, I wasn’t particularly impressed with his command in the video, but he was probably having a bad day. His delivery doesn’t look like it will produce excellent consistency, which is a bit worrisome. He falls over his left ankle and doesn’t have very good balance at the end.

I will comment more on the rest of the draft as well as Moore’s press conference in upcoming posts.

BREAKING NEWS: Baird Fired....Moore to be Next GM!

2006-05-31T12:55:00.000-04:00

The Kansas City Star and 810WHB report that Allard Baird has been fired and that Dayton Moore will be the next GM of the Royals. All accounts suggest Moore will be extremely well paid and will have full control over the baseball operations.

Couldn't have imagined a happier scenario. I'm not all that pleased with how Glass left Baird dangling for so long, but the end result is about the best Royals fans could have possibly hoped for.

Mr. Moore - you have brought hope where there was none.

Off Again

2006-05-19T18:34:00.000-04:00

I'm off to the Continental Europe again for a final trip. I'll be back in 2 1/2 weeks, perhaps postly sporadically if I have a spare moment. Hopefully, I'll come back and find that Andrew Miller has been selected by the Royals and some of these "changes" that Mr. Glass has spoken about are taking place. I'll be looking forward to baseball in June, especially with the return of Greinke, Madritsch, and MacDougal.

In other news, Dessens was appointed the team's closer. He's been the Royals' most consistent reliever and he'll probably do a decent job. Hopefully, Burgos can work out his problems and get his job back quickly (two good innings last night).

Hernandez continues to be ineffective after his one great start against Minnesota. Last night's performance of 7 hits, 5 runs, and 3 walks in 3 1/3 innings is a terrible line, although it's an improvement over Joe Mays. Jimmy Gobble pitched well in mop-up duty, striking out 4 in 2 2/3 innings. Gobble deserves another chance to start and with Hernandez pitching poorly, he should get that chance. Mark Redman, who the Pirates happily parted with, hasn't been much better. Hopefully, the return of Greinke and Madritsch gets some quality competition for these spots so we don't have to put up with terrible starting pitching for the rest of the season. But, I wouldn't count on it.

More Frustration: Royals' Road Problems Continue

2006-05-17T14:31:00.000-04:00

The Royals' road futility continues, as they drop their 6th straight road game to the Indians. The Royals got an early 3-0 lead for Elarton, who pitched fairly well and got the game into the 6th with a 4-3 lead. Dessens held the lead and got the game into the ninth inning. In the ninth, Sizemore destroyed a 96-mph Burgos' fastball into the Indians' bullpen, tying the game at 4-4. Burgos has really struggled in May, blowing his last 3 saves and watching his ERA rise from 2.19 to 6.23. Last night's game was probably the last opportunity Burgos will have to close for a while, as Bell is pretty frustrated with the bullpen:

"We've got to make some changes," Bell said adamantly.

So, who will be the new closer? The two most likely candidates: Elmer Dessens and Joel Peralta. Both have pitched well in middle relief for the Royals and both are over age 30 (Bell likes older players). Sisco continues to struggle, so he isn't likely to be an option. I suppose the Royals could try Jimmy Gobble, but he hasn't been great either. MacDougal can't get back fast enough, although he isn't too consistent either.

Now on to Buddy Bell. I've been willing to give Buddy Bell a chance, but I think he has to go with Allard. The Royals need to completely redo the organization and the new general manager needs to be able to hire a manager that fits their system (if Bell fits, then that's fine). But, in almost a year, I haven't seen anything from Buddy Bell that makes me believe he's a good manager.

1. Bell's insistence on playing veterans over the future: I just want to start by saying hi to Justin Huber, who might be getting lonely on the bench. In over two weeks, Huber has had a total of 7 ABs and hasn't played first base at all. I'm all for protecting young players, but not to the extent that it hinders their development. Huber is ready to face big league pitching. His bat is more ready than Mark Teahen's and Teahen has over 500 career ABs. What is Buddy Bell hiding Justin Huber for? Matt Stairs has pretty well so far, but Huber can match his production (good plate discipline and modest power). Hubie can easily outproduce Mientkiewicz's .645 OPS, which is absolutely pathetic for a first basemen. Neither of those players factor into the Royals' future. Huber needs to see some big league pitching. If he wants to watch big league games, he can just buy a ticket and watch from the stands (I doubt Mr. Glass would give away a free ticket).

Another example is Tony Graffanino playing over Esteban German. Graffanino has played reasonably well, but German has played better and might be able to contribute in the future at least in a utility role. German has a .828 OPS and has shown good plate discipline. He should be leading off, where his on-base skills and speed can help the team. Which leads to the next point...

Why is Kerry Robinson leading off? He has a .288 OBP and no track record of being able to get on-base. Hopefully Robinson is sent down when Costa is healthy, as Guiel has more to offer with at least some power.

I suppose none of these things really matter considering that the team isn't going anywhere this season. But, I think it just verifies that Buddy Bell isn't a good manager. It seems he's already lost this team, so I think it would be in the Royals' best interest if he and Allard go as quickly as possible.

The End of the Allard Era: Organizational Changes

2006-05-16T16:33:00.000-04:00

The Royals lack of progress over the past 10 years is largely due to the team's poor management from top to bottom. The first place the Royals must make changes is at the top of the organization, starting with the team's ownership.

The Glass Family:

The Glass family must realize that they ultimately determine the team's fate. And for the best interest of the team, both for baseball and financial success, it is best that they sit back and watch it. I appreciate the Glass family buying the team when it seemed that no one wanted it and keeping the Royals in Kansas City. However, the team has pretty much been non-existant for the past 5 years. The Royals are going to spend $50 million each season and the general manager is going to make several move throughout the season to improve the baseball team. Any interference from the ownership is completely unnecessary, especially considering that the team could not have been more poorly run over the past 5 seasons.

To improve the state of the franchise, the Glass family needs to make some important concessions. In the end, they will benefit from them financially and from being able to watch a competitive baseball team. The Royals need a stronger financial commitment from the Glass family. The Royals received $55 million in revenue sharing last year and those numbers should continue to increase. The value of the team has roughly doubled since Mr. Glass bought the time, in spite of its horrible performance. The Royals can be competitive on a payroll of $50-60 million as long as there is more funding for the amateur draft, scouting operations, and the farm system.

The Glass family must also step back from managing baseball operations. It's pretty well-known that Allard has been restricted in some of the moves he's made. The Glass family demanded that he get major-league talent for Jermaine Dye. There are also rumors that they have also prevented several other trades (Beltran for Wright, Sweeney for some of the Angels' top prospects), but those can't be confirmed. Nonetheless, it certainly appears that the Glass family have micromanaged the baseball operations to an extent that it makes the job very difficult. If they micromanage the ballclub this much with a GM they trust, I'd hate to see what happens with the new general manager. The Royals will be limited in their choice of general manager if they don't give the new general manager the final authority in baseball decisions.

New Baseball Operations Staff

The new general manager will inherit a decent core of young talent he/she can build the team around. The most important criteria for hiring the new GM is a strong track record of building farm systems and developing young players. The Royals' inability to do to develop their own talent has been the main reason for the past 5 years of futility. This problem must be addressed especially for the young pitching. The Royals simply cannot develop their own pitching. The talent has been there, but the proper instruction and conditioning hasn't. Getting an executive who has had tremendous success with developing pitching and can put together a player development scheme that will develop pitching must be a top priority. So, in other words, anyone associated with player development, it's time to clean out your office and pick up an application at Walmart.

The Royals' recent drafts have been fairly successful, so retaining Deric Ladnier or Allard Baird in the scouting department wouldn't bother me. Both seem to be a pretty good judge of young talent, especially for position players. As long as the Royals address the pitching side of the equation, Ladnier and Baird are welcome to stay.

The direction of the franchise ultimately depends on the changes that the ownership makes to the baseball operations staff and the Glass family's willingness to relinquish control of baseball operations. If these changes don't occur, it's going to be another frustrating 5 years for Royals' fans. The decisions the Glass family make in the next few months are going to tell us exactly where this franchise is going.

The End of the Allard Era: Pitching Talent

2006-05-12T07:53:00.000-04:00

After looking through the hitting talent, the new GM feels better about the team's future. The Royals have enough hitting talent to build a pretty good offense. The big question is do the Royals have enough pitching talent? No, but they are off to a pretty decent start.

The Veterans:

The Royals went out and signed a group of veteran arms that has yielded mixed results. Scott Elarton has been pretty average so far, and his success likely won't continue with the homeruns and walks piling up. Mark Redman hasn't been very good so far. The Royals' best pitching acquistion has turned out to be middle reliever Elmer Dessens. Dessens signed a two-year deal, so he should give the Royals two solid years of middle relief. Fortunately for the Royals the best signings were the long-term deals, so the Royals can keep the good pitching or use it as trade bait.

The 2003 Group:

The Royals still have 4 talented arms from the 2003 group that are at a critical stage of their careers with the club. Affeldt, Hernandez, MacDougal, and Gobble have shown the Royals flashes of their potential, but haven't been able to consistently pitch well. Hopefully they can give the Royals a couple of solid years before they become free agents, but it's not something to count on. If they do figure out how to become good, consistent pitchers, they will probably be too expensive for the Royals after becoming free agents.

The Current Youth:

The Royals' next group of arms offers more hope, mainly because the organization hasn't had as much time to screw them up. The Royals have some talented young starters, beginning with Zack Greinke. There's no question he has the talent to be a very good pitcher and he probably won't need much coaching help to do it. Hopefully he'll be able to overcome the issues he's been dealing with over the past two seasons.

The Royals' second-best bet to become a solid starter is JP Howell. Howell has below-average velocity, but has good command and excellent secondary stuff. He was doing very well at Omaha, but has missed two starts because of shoulder stiffness. Howell is a good candidate to become a mid-rotation starter if big league hitters don't feast on his fastball.

Denny Bautista arguably has the best stuff of any pitcher on the team. But, his injury problems and inconsistency make it tough to believe he'll put it together. If he does, he could be the Royals' ace.

Mike Wood has pitched very well for the Royals so far. He's picked up a staff-high 3 wins long relief. Wood has kept the Royals in some games that figured to be blowouts because the Royals' starter wasn't effective. Wood deserves a shot to start and it might turn out to be one of the team's most-effective starters.

So, for the foreseeable future, the Royals' rotation looks like this:

1. Free Agent Pretending to be an Ace
2. Hernandez
3. Greinke
4. Affeldt
5. Howell/Bautista

After 2007, hopefully Greinke becomes the ace of the staff. The Royals have Affeldt through 2007 and Hernandez through 2008.

Prospects: The Royals' starting pitching depth in the minors is improving gradually. Billy Buckner and Danny Christensen both have good fastballs and great curves and could enter the picture in late 2007 or 2008. Chris Nicoll has a combination of solid stuff and excellent command and might enter the picture by 2008. These prospects may give the Royals some options to replace Hernandez and Affeldt once they become free agents. Luis Cota is probably the only other starter in the organization besides Greinke and Bautista with the talent to fill the ace role, but that will be at least another few years.

Overall, the Royals' pitching situation is slowly improving. The Royals have actually had some decent performances out of their pitching so far. The Royals still need to acquire some top pitching talent to really solidify the staff. The 2006 1st overall pick should be a very good starting point.

In the next post, I'll discuss what changes the organization needs to make to become competitive again.

The End of the Allard Era: Hitting Talent

2006-05-07T06:51:00.000-04:00

As the new General Manager, you look at Buddy Bell's lineups and ask yourself why you accepted this job in the first place. The Royals have scored 3 runs or less in 18 of their first 28 games (64%). As you look through the big league roster, there isn't much hope for young hitting talent. David DeJesus and Shane Costa offer some hope for the offense, but both have been injured. DeJesus has established himself as the team's leadoff hitter, but he must stay healthy. The first core of younger players: Buck, Teahen, and Berroa are struggling. There's a few serviceable veterans like Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzielanek, and Mike Sweeney (when healthy). But, they probably won't be on the team after 2007.

While the big league club offers little hope for improving the offense, the Royals have an impressive duo of bats at AA who should be the focus of the offense after 2007. Alex Gordon and 20-year-old Billy Butler figure to be the organization's No. 3 and 4 hitters of the future. Gordon has had no problem adjusting to professional pitching, producing a .903 OPS so far at AA. Gordon appears to be major-league ready right now and will continue to mash in the minors until he's called up. Butler has demolished every level of the minors he's been through so far, and AA is no exception. The sky is the limit for Butler offensively. There is a consensus among scouts that these are two of the best bats in the minors.

If Butler and Gordon live up to expectations, the Royals should have a strong middle of the lineup. If one should fail to live up to expectations, the most likely replacement would be Justin Huber, who is mostly likely the No. 5 hitter of the future. Huber hit 23 HRs between AA and AAA last year and possesses very good plate discipline. The main question is whether or not he'll hit enough to be a first basemen. However, if his minor league stats are any indication, that shouldn't be an issue.

Two other good bats nearing the majors are Chris Lubanski and Mitch Maier. Lubanski had a huge year at High Desert last season, hitting 38 doubles, 28 homeruns and driving in 116 runs. His High Desert performance was questioned because of the hitter-friendly nature of the league. However, he's answered those questions at AA by posting a higher OPS than Billy Butler. Depending on how well Butler, Gordon, and Huber develop, Lubanski probably could be a No. 2, 5, or 6 hitter. Mitch Maier is also nearing the majors and is one of the most well-rounded outfielders in the organization. Maier would probably profile as a No. 2 or 6 hitter with gap power and speed. Maier is one of the few Royal outfielders with enough arm strength and speed to play RF, so he may be the only candidate to take Sanders' spot in 2008.

After looking through the top two levels of the minors, the new GM would feel a lot better. The Royals appear to have enough talent to fill out the 1 through 6 spots in the lineup with good, young talent. Depending on the progress of Buck, Berroa, and middle infield prospects (Murphy, Gotay, Sanchez, etc.), the Royals may need to find outside help to fill out the bottom of the order.

The End of the Allard Era?

2006-05-05T15:24:00.000-04:00

In the coming week, I will breakdown why Allard should be fired or retained and discuss what the next GM should do with the talent in the organization. Mr. Glass will be pondering the same thing over the next few months. The four basic areas where his job will be assessed are:

1. The overall status of the organization
2. The farm system, drafts, and player development
3. Free agent signings and trades
4. Hiring coaches and staff.

Why Baird Should Be Retained?

1. The Royals are currently in a full rebuilding mode. Allard has implemented a pretty good plan for the organization, as the team must rely on its youth to eventually become a contender. While the organization's win-loss record has gotten steadily worse over the past 4 seasons, it does appear the organization is making some progress. The Royals do have some young pitching talent on the big-league team and have some good bats not too far away.

2. The Royals' farm system has made good strides recently. Last year's draft gave the Royals an easy superstar pick in Alex Gordon, an excellent young 2nd basemen in Jeff Bianchi, and a good college pitcher in Chris Nicoll. The Royals' 2004 draft was also a success, bringing the Royals' another potential superstar in Billy Butler. The 2004 draft also added a couple of nice college starters with JP Howell and Billy Buckner. In addition to improving the players the Royals have drafted, the Royals continually improved their draft position during the past few years, locking up the first-overall pick for 2006 and putting up a good fight for the 2007 first-overall pick. Overall, Baird and his scouting department have improved their drafts considerably over the past 6 years and those results are starting to show in the farm system.

3. Allard's 2006 free agent signings have been decent. Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzielanek, and Doug Mientkiewicz have improved the Royals' defense on the right side of the field. Their offensive production has dropped off from their 2005 seasons, but those three have still been the Royals' most consistent bats. Elarton and Dessens have also pitched well for the Royals so far. The trades for Huber, Bautista, and Nunez cost the Royals virtually nothing and may pay dividends in the future.

4. Baird has hired some interesting characters who have contributed to the Royals' entertainment level.

Why Baird Should Be Fired?

1. The Royals have gone into a full rebuilding mode, during which the Royals have lost 100+ games in the past 2 seasons. The Royals haven't just been bad, they've been historically bad. The Royals are currently on pace to lose more than 106 games, which would make them the first team in major league history to lose 100 games for three seasons in a row and get worse each season. During the Baird's tenure, the Royals have tied or broken the franchise record for losses four times already and this season could be number five. That has to be a record as well. While Baird has implemented a good plan, the execution of the plan has been poor.

2. The Royals' farm system is making strides, but it still has major deficiencies. The Royals' pitching depth and quality still needs significant improvement. The Royals also don't have any quality replacements for Buck or Berroa in the near future. The biggest problem the organization faces is the inability to develop its own talent into good, consistent major leaguers. The Royals have not done this during the Baird Era and show no significant signs of making progress in this area.

3. Baird has made some laughable free agent signings, including Juan Gonzalez, Benito Santiago, Albie Lopez, Darrell May, Scott Sullivan, Brian Anderson, Jose Lima, and many others that David Glass surely regrets spending his hard-earned revenue sharing money on. The Royals have fared badly in the three main trades Baird has made. The Damon, Dye, and Beltran trades have lost a good second basemen (Mark Ellis) and gained very little in return. Mike Wood will likely turn out to be the cornerstone of the Beltran deal (he is a quality middle reliever, but not what you want for a superstar CF). However, Buck and Teahen are struggling badly at the big league level and may end up as backups. The Dye deal gave the Royals a shortstop who was as bad as Angel Berroa. The Damon deal gave the Royals Angel Berroa, which has probably done more harm than good.

4. Baird has done a terrible job of hiring organizational personnel. He let Tony Muser remain manager far too long and then hired Pena clown. Buddy Bell hasn't been anything special either, not that any manager could drastically improve the state of the organization. The Royals annually fire the pitching and hitting coaches with no noticeable improvements.

The Decision

I'm sure Mr. Glass is already pondering this, but I think he probably knows it's Baird's time to go. Mr. Glass sent out an ultimatum last season stating the Royals must improve to .500 this season or Baird would be finished. The Royals have tried changing managers and coaches many times, but that hasn't improved the ballclub. The one constant through the past 6 years of futility has been Allard Baird. The fans have grown impatient of an organization that has thrown away three seasons in a row now only to watch Teahen, Buck, and Berroa strikeout a lot and Huber sit on the bench. Some youth movement isn't it?

Allard deserves better. There probably aren't many GMs who work harder than him and he's fully dedicated himself to this franchise and I respect that. However, like Allard has said, it's a results-based business and he isn't getting the job done. Hopefully the next general manager will. In the next few posts, I will discuss what talent the next GM has to work with and what organizational changes must be made.

On a closing note, here's a quote from an article just after the Muser firing:

"If you want to feel sorry for somebody, feel sorry for the baseball fans in Kansas City. They've not only had to put up with 431 losses since July 9, 1997, but now there's a very real danger that their team won't even exist a year or three from now."

The organization still exists, albeit on the life-support of David Glass and major league baseball. There are still plenty of die-hard Royals' fans who will support this team once it becomes competitive again. Let's hope we can find a GM who can rebuild this franchise and get the Royals back to 1985, or at least .500.

Our young arms in the minors

2006-05-01T08:15:00.000-04:00

Last year, the Royals' farm system seemed completely bereft of any pitching talent. Things seem to have improved considerably, as most of the Royals' pitching prospects have done well at the next level and had success. The Royals have had good performances from starting pitching prospects JP Howell, Billy Buckner, Danny Christensen, and Chris Nicoll. The Royals' efforts in the Dominican may be starting to pay off as well with a new group of arms now in A ball. A combination of good recent drafts (especially for not focusing on pitching as much) and prospects not regressing has improved the Royals' farm system.

Omaha

1. JP Howell: Howell really struggled in his last two starts, surrendering 12 runs and 20 hits (8 for extra bases) in 10 innings. Ouch! Howell is doing a good job of throwing strikes over his last two starts (just 1 walk), but those strikes are getting hit pretty well. Howell finished the month with an excellent K/BB ratio of 4. Howell’s secondary pitches, especially his curve, are very good and his fastball does a good job of getting grounders. However, Howell’s fastball does concerns me, as its velocity is well-below average. He must develop great command of it to be successful in the majors. If he leaves it up and over the plate, hitters are going to demolish it. If Howell overcomes the challenge, he can probably be a good No. 3 or 4 starter in the majors. If not, he better get used to his Omaha jersey.

First 3 Starts: 3-0 2.65 ERA 15 IP 13 Hits 0 HRs 5 BBs 13 SOs
Last 2 Starts: 0-2 10.80 ERA 12 IP 20 Hits 2 HRs 1 BB 11 SOs

Totals: 3-2 5.67 ERA 27 IP 33 Hits 2 HRs 6 BBs 24 SOs Ground Outs 39 Fly Outs 18

Others: Brian Bass finished the month with a respectable 4.50 ERA, but he needs to strike out more batters. Danny Tamayo might be worth a look in long relief after putting up a 1.69 ERA and striking out 15 in 16 innings.

Wichita

1. Juan Cedeno: The lefty Cedeno has good stuff, possessing a mid-90s fastball, potential plus curve, and change. But, he’s been hit pretty hard throughout his minor league career and this season is no exception. Cedeno is walking far too many hitters and has allowed over a hit per inning, a combination that has led to his early struggles. He’s still very young for AA, so he has plenty of time. The Royals skipped him past High Desert last year.

Totals: 0-2 5.91 ERA 22 2/3 IP 27 Hits 3 HRs 13 BBs 19 SOs 1.76 WHIP

2. Leo Nunez: Nunez has also struggled with command, walking almost 1 hitter per inning. He’s also allowed 3 homeruns in just 9 innings. Like Cedeno, Nunez possesses electric stuff and is very young for AA.

Others: Ryan Braun is a bit of a sleeper. He possesses a good fastball and is off to a good start, striking out 13 in 10 innings.

High Desert

1. Billy Buckner: Buckner has pitched well at High Desert, possessing a 3-0 record and a 3.25 ERA. Buckner has struck out almost a hitter per inning (and so has just about every pitcher on the High Desert roster) and has yet to allow a homerun in a very hitter-friendly park. He needs to cut down on the walks, as he’s averaging 4.6 BBs/9 IP.

3-0 3.25 ERA 27 2/3 IP 27 Hits 0 HRs 14 BBs 24 SOs 1.48 WHIP

2. Danny Christensen: Christensen has also pitched well. His K/BB ratio is very good (6.6!). The 23-year-old lefty also has an outstanding 1.07 WHIP as well. Both Christensen and Buckner have had impressive success considering the difficulties higher elevations impose on pitchers who rely heavily on curveballs.

0-1 4.03 ERA 29 IP 26 Hits 2 HRs 5 BBs 33 SOs 1.07 WHIP

3. Luis Cota: Cota has had a disappointing season so far, but that’s not entirely unexpected given his youth and command issues. The combination of hits and walks has created problems for the young righty.

1-3 6.92 ERA 26 IP 30 Hits 2 HRs 11 BBs 19 SOs 1.58 WHIP

Burlington

1. Chris Nicoll: Nicoll has done nothing but impress since joining the Royals’ organization. Nicoll has dominated low A hitters so far, allowing just 4 hits and 2 earned runs in 10 innings. Nicoll’s 15 strikeouts in 10 innings is impressive as well.

1-1 1.80 ERA 10 IP 4 Hits 0 HRs 4 BBs 15 SOs 0.80 WHIP

2. Matthew Kinginyzky: The Canadian right-hander has enjoyed success after becoming a starter again. His control has been very impressive, with just 4 walks in 30 innings. Here’s a good article about Kinginyzky: Kinginyzky article

Although his recent success as a starter is promising, the article mentions a cause for concern:
Kinginyzky said, “It's easier for me to come in for two or three innings. Guess I wear out as a starter.”

2-1 2.90 ERA 31 IP 27 Hits 1 HRs 4 BBs 25 SOs 1.00 WHIP

The Bees also have a group of arms from the Dominican that might be worth watching. Eliszer Garcia, Carlos Rosa, Rayner Oliveros, and Gilbert De la Vara have all pitched well for Burlington.

Elarton's Early Success

2006-04-28T09:41:00.000-04:00

A Few Tidbits from Elarton's interview on 810 WHB:

Elarton came to Kansas City because of his relationship with Buddy Bell and Bob McClure. Elarton thinks the Royals are a couple of years behind Cleveland right now and he thinks the Royals can get to that level. Elarton attributes his recent success to his command of his offspeed stuff. He's usually a slow starter because his fastball command takes a while to develop, but it has arrived early this year.

Elarton has pitched very well for the Royals so far, posting a 3.16 ERA through 5 starts. Can he keep it up? I want to think so, but his K/BB is terrible, as he's walked 18 and only struck out 11. It's generally very difficult for finesse pitchers to be effective if they are walking a lot of hitters and not striking out very many. So, why is Elarton enjoying success at the moment? As Elarton mentioned, he's done a good job of hitting his spots well. Elarton will have to continue to hit his spots well, otherwise things will go downhill quickly. At the very least, it's nice to have a veteran starter in a Royals' uniform doing well.

Other notes: Last night's game was lost in typical Royals' fashion. Mark Redman couldn't get it out of the 2nd inning. Mike Wood did a nice job of mopping up some 4 innings and saving the bullpen for Joe Mays' 3-inning start tonight. The bullpen overall pitched well, giving Hudson and Gobble some needed innings. Joel Peralta has pitched well since being recalled from Omaha. Why Stemle made the team and not Peralta is still a mystery to me.

Berroa hit his first homerun of the season and raised his batting average to .296. Apparently his good batting average is getting him early attention from Royals' fans in the All-Star balloting, as he's one of the leaders in the Royals' balloting. I guess most Royals' fans don't realize that Angel's on-base percentage is just 10 points higher and he can't make routine plays.

If it's not bad enough that the Royals have to send someone to the All-Star game, can you imagine sending Angel Berroa? I guess we can see the youth of 2003 flourishing, with Ken Harvey and Mike MacDougal already becoming All-Stars and Angel Berroa ready to become one as well. Life as a Royals' fan...

On to some positive notes with less sarcasm. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler continue to feast on Texas League pitching. Alex Gordon hit his 5th homer of the season and is now tied with Billy Butler for the team lead. Chris Lubanski is starting to heat up as well, now owning a much improved OPS of .754. Mitch Maier has also hit well, with 4 HRs and 19 RBIs. The Royals have a nice group of outfielders here that should help improve the Royals' offense considerably over the next 2 seasons. Hopefully, with talents like Gordon and Butler, the Royals will have true All-Stars and not All-Stars by default.

Around the Minors

2006-04-26T18:40:00.000-04:00

Here's a summary of how the Royals' farm teams and top prospects have done so far:

The Omaha Royals:

The Omaha Royals are off to a solid 11-8 start in the PCL. Justin Huber has been tearing up PCL pitching, with a 1.094 OPS. The bad news, 3 errors in 19 games. So, he's probably got quite a bit of work left defensively. Andres Blanco has taken a completely different form, sporting a .850 OPS. But, he also leads the team in errors with 8. Chip Ambres is off to a disappointing start so far.

JP Howell has pitched well for the Omaha Royals, recording almost a strikeout an inning and being stingy on the walks. Howell is probably still a couple months away from the majors and hopefully will take a spot away from Joe Mays eventually. I can't stand watching Mays pitch. Brian Bass hasn't pitched well, allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning. Danny Tamayo has pitched exceptionally for Omaha, with a 1.69 ERA and 15 K's to 2 walks in 16 innings. Tamayo has an excellent changeup, and might be a candidate eventually for long relief. He's at least better than Joe Mays.

Wichita Wranglers

The Wranglers are off to a tough start, with a 6-13 record. Alex Gordon has hit AA pitching very well so far. Gordon has a team-high 8 doubles and along with 4 HRs and a team-high .963 OPS. The strikeouts are adding up for Gordon, but not a huge concern yet. Billy Butler continues to climb through the Royals' farm system and keeps on mashing. Butler leads the team in HRs with 5 and has an excellent .325/.360/.578 line. I still wonder how the defense is coming along though. Mitch Maier is off to a pretty good start as well, with 4 HRs and a .814 OPS. Chris Lubanski is off to his typical slow start, but has shown better plate discipline. It'll be interesting to see if last season was really a breakthrough season or not.

Juan Cedeno has struggled early on, allowing too many walks (12 in 18 IP). The 22-year-old lefty has the stuff to be a good starter down the road and that'll depend upon improved control. Leo Nunez has struggled so far, allowing 3 HRs and 7 walks in 9 innings. Another potential power arm for the bullpen, Ryan Braun, has pitched pretty well striking out 13 in 10 innings. Braun was injured for most of last season, so it's good to see him back on track.

High Desert Mavericks

The High Desert squad is off to an 11-8 start thanks to some quality pitching. Leading the staff is Billy Buckner, who has won all three of his starts. Buckner has struck out 23 in 22 2/3. Buckner possesses a great curve, which could be his ticket to the majors by 2008. Ditto on Danny Christensen, who has reattained prospect status. The lefty has a great K/BB (25/5) and an excellent WHIP (1.04). Luis Cota has struggled so far at High Desert, with a 7.17 ERA. However, his K/BB has been pretty good (18/7), so I suspect he's pitched better than his ERA indicates. Former 1st round pick Mike Stodolka is tearing up High Desert pitching so far. The former pitcher is sporting a .404/.491/.745 line. It'll be interesting to watch his progression. Let's just hope we don't see Zack Greinke doing the same thing in 3 years.

Burlington Bees

All signs so far point toward a very success 2005 draft with Gordon mashing AA pitching, Bianchi having a great debut in the Arizona Rookie League, and Chris Nicoll having a great start at Burlington. Nicoll has allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings and has an excellent K/BB. Chris McConnell is showing signs of coming through a huge slump. McConnell went 2 for 5 today with a double and 2 RBIs.

Overall, the Royals' pitching prospects are off to a good start. It appears the Royals' pitching depth is improving thanks to two solid drafts in the past season. The Royals have a strong group of potential impact bats in the upper minors which should produce a much improved offense by 2007. If the Royals' pitching depth continues to improve, then there may indeed be hope.

The Weatherman Is Back

2006-04-23T10:22:00.000-04:00

I'm finally back to UK after a great, but exhausting trip from Barcelona to Budapest. After living off box scores for 5 weeks, it's great to see baseball again (even if it's the tiny, pixelated feed that MLBTV provides). First, here are my thoughts on the season so far:

Pretty much business as usual for the Royals: An 11-game losing streak, lengthy disabled list, Glass saying he still supports Allard, Berroa blunders, and no pitching. The Royals 3-13 record shows how overmatched the Royals are in every aspect of the game. The Royals' bullpen, expected to be the bright spot this season, has failed to live up to expectations.

First, a few positive thoughts about the season. Baird's most important offseason signings have been a success so far. Scott Elarton has pitched well in 3 of his first 4 starts (16 walks in 22 innings is a big concern though). Mark Redman has also pitched well since coming off the disabled list. Joe Mays has been terrible, but that was expected. The success of the Joe Mays signing will be determined by how quickly the Royals can replace him. Overall, those signings has lived up to expectations and that has to be considered a success. Mark Grudzielanek and Reggie Sanders have also performed as expected. Sanders leads the team in HRs and RBIs.

Much of the offensive struggles have been due to the disappearance of Sweeney, DeJesus and Brown. DeJesus has already landed on the disabled list and Sweeney and Brown have OPSs just above .600. If those three can produce offensively as expected, the Royals offense will improve tremendously.

The Royals' rotation continues to be a major problem, even with two veterans pitching reasonably well thus far. Affeldt has not done much with his opportunity to start again. The remnants of the failed 2003 youth movement (Affeldt, MacDougal, Hernandez) are quickly fading. The Royals' small infusion of youth in the rotation hasn't fared much better. I have a feeling Bautista will never stay healthy long enough to contribute much. The rotation will get a much needed boost as Greinke, Bautista, and Madritsch come back. The Royals' top pitching prospects are also off to a good start (more on the farm system later). So, perhaps there is some hope, especially if a new regime takes off quickly. The return of Greinke can't come soon enough.

Happy Trails

2006-04-17T17:01:00.000-04:00

That's it.

I'm done.

I've enjoyed my time writing about the Royals here at the Daily Lancer. It has been rewarding to build a small but loyal readership of fellow Royals fans. And I will be a lifelong Royals devotee, even living in the belly of the beast here in New York City. I am a Royals fan through and through.

But I just can't muster the level of energy and enthusiasm it takes to write about this team.

The Weatherman may be around to post when he returns from his European vacation, but the Daily Lancer is signing off.

Godspeed, Kansas City Royals.

Last Stand?

2006-04-07T12:33:00.000-04:00

At the beginning of 2004, a season in which several prognosticators and plenty of fans thought the Royals held serious promise, I opined in this blog that one of the keys to a competitive season was the performance of Jeremy Affeldt. Affeldt promptly fell flat on his arse, burdened by both poor performance and injuries. He wasn't the only reason the team failed, but when measured against expectations he was one of the worst culprits. We got much the same from Affeldt in 2005, a mixture of tantalizingly effective performance, inconsistency and the periodic meltdown (on full display during his Yankee Stadium meltdown in July).

Jeremy Affeldt entered this season at a clear crossroads with this team - no defined role, no halo of potential stardom keeping his reputation afloat, and vastly reduced expectations that he could be a difference maker. He was the third option for closer behind MacDougal and Burgos, the second option for left-handed setup behind Sisco, and standing outside the small circle of penciled-in starters. Thanks to a rash of injuries, obesity and mental illness that have ravaged the incumbent starters, however, Affeldt is receiving another chance to prove himself as a starter.

It all begins tonight as Affeldt faces the defending champs. He has roughly 4 to 6 weeks to prove himself before Hernandez, Redman and eventually Greinke make their way back to Kansas City. If he performs well, the Royals will find it much easier to jettison Joe Mays to long relief and Denny Bautista back to AAA to work on his control and consistency. But if he flounders, he'll be stuck in the back of the bullpen with practically zero hope he'll ever make a meaningful contribution to the Kansas City Royals.

Carpe diem, Jeremy. THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING.

The K

2006-04-04T11:20:00.001-04:00

The season opened yesterday with a whimper for the Royals, but the big news on this day is the stadium renovation vote. Jackson County residents will be asked to bear most of the financial burden for renovating both Kauffman and Arrowhead stadiums. This represents the third attempt by the Royals and Chiefs (Bistate I and II, R.I.P.) to secure public financing for the refurbishment of their stadiums.

The Big Guns are a-blazin' with this vote, as the leaders of Major League Baseball, the National Football League and even the NCAA have all but promised their grandest events if the measures pass. I read somewhere yesterday that the proponents of this measure have outspent opponents by something on the order of $1.2 million to $500. And we think baseball PAYROLLS are inequitable.

I expect the measure to fail, not because of the relative merits of proposal but because American taxpayers are generally loathe to impose any new taxes on themselves. Normally I would be among those opposing stadium deals, because they rely too heavily on taxpayer support (I think taxpayers should bear some burden for the privilege of having a major league franchise in their town, but the majority of the costs should be paid by the owners and leagues) and because stadium spending has no measurable benefit on the performance of the team itself. The Royals are not going to improve as a result of this stadium package unless it generates enough new revenue to allow the Royals to spend like the large market teams. It won't, so the Royals will still be overwhelmingly reliant upon drafting and developing to build their team.

But anyway, I'd like to see this measure pass. Kauffman Stadium is a gem but it is old and needs a facelift. If taxpayers have to spend money, I'd probably prefer it to be a downtown stadium, but if the Royals can save $100 million by bringing the K up-to-date for the next 20 years rather than building new, then I see no problem with that.

But mostly I'd just like to see the issue settled so the Royals secure a future in this city.

2006 Dreams

2006-04-01T20:32:00.000-05:00

Hello Royals fans. Daily Lancer here. Its been a long while, but I thought I should at least check in at the start of the season to offer a few thoughts and hopes for 2006.

Overall, I think we're looking at a 95-loss team at least, and quite likely into the triple digits once again. The Royals will have one of the worst starting pitching staffs, worst lineups and a below average defensive squad (though not as historically awful as last year). It would take far, far too many things that break the right way for the Royals to be anything close to competitive this season. So we're looking at another long one, I'm afraid.

2007 and beyond look more promsing, but oh, man, that starting pitching. Without a major infusion of pitching (and defensive) talent, we're looking at 70 to 80 win teams when the Gordon-Huber-Butler-Bianchi quartet make their onto the major league scene. There's still time, but Allard Baird is not the man to make it happen (more on that in a moment).

Anyway, here's hoping that...

Jeremy Affeldt remains a starter and develops at least a modicum of mental toughness to complement that golden (but fading) arm. Jeremy, if a batter gets on base, take a deep breath. Then another. Then forget about it. Never seen a head case quite like Jeremy Affeldt.

Jimmy Gobble is eventually released so he can pitch in an organization that understands what he is - a young, potentially decent starting pitcher who needs time and patience to figure out how to be successful in the major leagues. Look, the kid is only 24 years old and has the potential to contribute at the back end a rotation. He's not going to be a star pitcher with his weak strikeout ability, but he CAN be successful. The Royals have completely screwed up putting him in the bullpen and trying to turn him into something he's not. He is emblematic of all of the problems the Royals have developing pitchers. Jimmy, pray you're DFA'd sometime soon.

David DeJesus plays at least 150 games and lasts the entire season without a significant injury.

By June, Mark Teahen develops into a .275/.360/.440 baseball player and makes it difficult for the Royals to bring up Alex Gordon this season.

Mike Sweeney is traded by the deadline to make way for Justin Huber (who despite his poor showing in late 2005 and sluggish spring is ready) to replace him.

The Royals draft Andrew Miller with the first pick in the amateur draft, assuming he isn't injured.

Zack Greinke finds the proper mix of anti-depressants and gets himself back on the mound again. Without the incessant tinkering of Guy Hansen, I think Greinke will return to 2004 form.

If the Royals are going to be bad, just be really bad and get the #1 pick again. Its so much more valuable than any other pick that its actually worth it for the Royals to completely tank to get it. Seriously.

Burgos and Sisco accomplish two things - achieve a modest improvement in their BB/K ratio and avoid serious injury. I expect these two to mature into pitchers (instead of fireballers who occasionally find the plate) by 2007.

The April 4th ballot initiative passes. I'd prefer a downtown stadium, but I'm weary of the stadium cloud hanging over the head of the franchise. I'd rather just see the issue settled so we can all stop worrying about it. A downtown stadium isn't going to be an elixir for this franchise anyway; it won't improve the product on the field and it won't draw any more fans (past the novelty of the first season anyway) as long as the baseball team keeps losing 95 games.

Any one of Scott Elarton, Joe Mays or Mark Redman at least MEETS expectations. Forget exceeds - just meets. If so, hallelujah Allard Baird - finally.

The Royals finish well below .5o0, so the Baird regime ends thankfully (as promised by David Glass) and the Royals undertake a complete overhaul of their organizational management and baseball philosophy.

That said...

Go Royals.

Final Spring Training Thoughts From Across the Pond

2006-03-14T17:08:00.000-05:00

Heading off to Contiental Europe for the next 5 weeks, so I won't be posting again until late April. So, here are my final thoughts on the Royals and Spring Training so far:

The Royals' rotation is business as usual, with the rotation already losing its two best starters. Hopefully, the Royals can manage to get their starters' ERA under 6 this year. The Royals will need Greinke to get back quickly and get decent performances from Elarton, Redman, and Mays. Affeldt and Bautista will likely grab a rotation spot and give the rotation some upside. But, I don't see either giving the Royals good starts on a regular basis. The Royals have some options for the rotation, so we shouldn't have to put up with a Lima-like performance this year. I'm going to be optimistic and say the rotation doesn't get worse than last year.

The Royals' bullpen could be one of the strengths of the team and is the most talented part of the team. If Sisco and Burgos can avoid sophomore slumps and make the necessary adjustments, then the back of the bullpen should be pretty good. MacDougal has settled into the closer's role, but his command still worries me. Wood, Peralta, Affeldt and Dessens will do a decent job in the middle innings. The bullpen was close to league-average last season and will probably be slightly above average this season. So, I'm going to say the bullpen's improvement adds 3 wins.

The Royals improved the right side of the infield with the additions of Mientkiewicz and Grudzielanek. Both are defensive improvements and Grudzielanek will improve the offensive production at second base. As long as Sweeney stays healthy, the Royals will get decent production out of the 1B/DH trio of Sweeney, Stairs, and Mientkiewicz. Teahen has shown signs of improvement in September and Spring Training, so he should get better. Berroa will still be a nuisance as usual. The free agent additions should improve the team and I'll say it adds 4 wins.

The Royals added Reggie Sanders to add a good bat behind Sweeney and improve the outfield defense. DeJesus and Sanders will give the Royals good offensive and defensive production if they can stay healthy. Whether Brown can repeat his 2005 performance or not will determine how much the outfield improves. Overall, I'll say the outfield improves, mainly because Terrence Long is gone, and adds 3 wins.

So, I expect the Royals to improve a total of 10 wins, a 66-96 record. If the young players improve more than expected and the Royals get league-average production out of 2 or 3 starters, the Royals might get to the 70-win mark. But, it looks like another last place finish for the Royals.

Finally, a look at the minors. The Royals will have a second wave of young players approaching the majors, arriving in 2007 and 2008. The AA lineup will be particularly impressive, featuring the Royals' top prospects. The middle of the Wranglers lineup featuring Gordon, Butler, and Lubanski, will be really fun to watch. The Royals have some depth building at AA and AAA, so there is some hope for the future for the offense.

The Royals have the ingredients to build an above-average offense and bullpen in the near future. The Royals still need a lot of help for the rotation. Until the rotation gets fixed, the Royals aren't going anywhere.

Inevitable Demise of the Rotation

2006-03-06T19:39:00.000-05:00

Each year, Royals fans await the collapse of the rotation. This year, it's arrived earlier than usual. Zack Greinke has returned to Florida for "personal reasons". I don't want to speculate on what is troubling Zack, but hopefully it gets resolved quickly for him and the Royals. Mark Redman injured his knee during his start yesterday and could be out for 4-6 weeks. Hernandez is healthy for now, but he's not in good shape and will be an injury risk. So, what's that leave the Royals with? A rotation with Hernandez, Elarton, and Mays, barring any additional injuries.

The next two starters will probably be either Bautista, Affeldt, or Howell. My guess would be Bautista and Affeldt making the team with Howell going to AAA (Royals want to give him more time there). Bautista and Affeldt haven't done much to make a case for themselves so far, with poor first starts. I'm not convinced that either has the consistency to be a good starter. Bautista and Affeldt haven't shown any signs of developing good enough command of their full repertoire. I'm not convinced that either pitcher can stay healthy long enough to become a productive starter either. But, they are the two most talented arms the Royals have in the rotation mix.

The Royals do have pretty good rotation depth heading into the season and they'll need every bit of it. Here's how the depth chart looks at the moment:

Hernandez
Elarton
Mays
Affeldt
Howell
Bautista
Gobble
Wood
Dessens (spot starter)
Bass

Available after the season starts:
Greinke
Redman
Madritsch

The Royals have some depth, but overall it looks like the same story in 2006. The Royals don't have enough quality starters in the rotation. Until that changes, the Royals aren't going to rise out of last place.

The failure to develop and find quality starting pitching has been the main downfall of the Baird era. Unless the Royals' rotation turns things around in miraculous way, it will likely be the end of the Baird era. At least Baird has figured out that the Royals need pitching depth (Kansas City Star article):

“I keep telling people,” general manager Allard Baird said, “that you can never have too much depth when it comes to pitching.”

Of course, it'll probably take him another 5 years to figure out that you not only need very good depth, but quality pitchers as well.

Royals Break Camp

2006-02-21T10:43:00.000-05:00

Pitchers and catchers have reported for the Royals. As usual, we have some ridiculous optimism coming from the Royals' manager, at least it's in English this time:

“We have to think of ourselves as a playoff team. I believe that. We have to figure out a way to get it done. With the acquisitions we made over the winter, I think those guys give us a much better chance.”

“I’m pretty realistic,” he said. “This has to be our goal. That’s No. 1. And only time will tell if it’s realistic.

Oh well, anything that gets rid of the losing attitude that the team has had for the past two years. Another thing that hasn't changed is that the Royals will ask a veteran to make a fool of themselves on Opening Day. This year's victim will be either Mark Redman or Scott Elarton. Redman and Elarton are locks for the rotation. Greinke and Hernandez are also locks for the rotation, barring a horrible spring. The Royals have indicated otherwise, but I don't buy it. The fifth spot appeared to be open, although Bob Dutton mentioned in the Kansas City Star that it might not be after all. Bob Dutton said that Joe Mays was a good bet to win the job because of his $1 million salary. The rotation should be better this year, as it would be nearly impossible to be worse.

The rotation appears to be pretty well set, with Affeldt and Bautista maybe getting a shot at the fifth spot if they have a great spring. I'll be rooting for one of those two. The Royals need more talent in the rotation. Aside from Zack Greinke, the Royals have no talent in the rotation. Most of the Royals' young pitching talent is in the bullpen, moping up the 13-1 games that are over in the 4th inning. Andrew Sisco comments on the Royals' unique bullpen situation:

"We do have something rare in a bullpen and that's some youth," Sisco said. "It's not a position where you see a lot of younger guys."

Maybe it's rare because most teams would rather take a very talented pitcher and get 200 innings out of them as the staff ace rather than 75 in middle relief or set-up roles?

The Royals' roster appears to be mostly set. Once the Spring Training games gets started, I'll focus on the candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation, fourth outfielder position, and the other spots still up for grabs.

Kansas City Star Spring Training Coverage

Organizational Analysis: Outfielders

2006-02-06T18:23:00.000-05:00

Here's the final part of the organization's personnel. The Royals' outfield is set for 2006, with Emil Brown in LF, David DeJesus in CF, and Reggie Sanders in RF. The Royals signed Sanders to a two-year deal, so he and DeJesus will be fixtures in the Royals' outfield for the next two seasons. DeJesus and Brown were fairly productive offensively last year and with the addition of Sanders, the Royals will probably have at least an average OF offense. DeJesus and Sanders are pretty average defenders and Brown is a well-below average defender. Overall, I expect the Royals' outfield to be slightly-below average. The Royals' outfield is pretty old at the corner outfield spots (Brown 31, Sanders 38), so the Royals' corner outfield production may fall off. Emil Brown's one-year spike in production doesn't inspire optimism that he'll continue to be a productive everyday player in 2006.

Left Fielders:

Emil Brown will likely be the Royals' everyday left fielder. Brown's .804 OPS and 10 stolen bases make him an asset to the team, even with his defensive liabilities. Guiel may see playing time in LF if Brown's production falls off.

Prospects: Billy Butler, Chris Lubanski, Shane Costa

Butler is probably a longshot to play OF in the majors. But, his bat gives him tremendous upside and will force the Royals to find him a spot. Chris Lubanski is still a bit of a mystery. He had a terrific season at High Desert and put up some very impressive numbers, even for a hitter's league. AA will be a big test for Lubanski. Lubanski needs to improve his plate discipline as well as his defense if he is going to remain in CF. Shane Costa has tremendous raw strength, but it hasn't shown so far in his career. Costa is a good contact hitter. So, if he can utilize his strength, he might be capable of hitting 20+ HRs. Otherwise, he'll likely be a AAAA player.

Centerfielders:

David DeJesus has the centerfield position locked down for the foreseeable future. DeJesus is a solid baseball player in all aspects of the game. He has very good on-base skills and has decent gap power. DeJesus's main job is to get on base so Mike Sweeney and Reggie Sanders can have more RBI-opportunities.

Prospects: Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier, Joseph Dickerson

Chris Lubanski is still a bit of a mystery. He had a terrific season at High Desert and put up some very impressive numbers, even for a hitter's league. AA will be a big test for Lubanski. Lubanski needs to improve his plate discipline as well as his defense if he is going to remain in CF. Mitch Maier is similar to DeJesus in that he's good but not great in each facet of the game. Maier doesn't have DeJesus's on-base skills, but has better base-stealing ability. Joseph Dickerson had a nice debut in the Arizona Rookie League and will likely go to Idaho Falls.

Rightfielders:

Reggie Sanders will be the Royals' rightfielder. Sanders has pretty good power, hitting 20+ homeruns in each of the last 5 seasons. Sanders also steals 15-20 bases each year with a good SB%.

Prospects: Alex Gordon?, Mitch Maier

Maier has the arm strength to play RF as does Gordon. If Teahen is productive enough at 3rd base, then Gordon may get moved to RF.

Just 11 days until Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training. The new baseball season is almost here finally.

1. Current Outfielders' Performance: D+ (poor defense, having to watch Terrence Long last year)
2. Current Outfielders' Potential: C
3. Current Prospects Depth: A (pretty good; options at each OF position)
4. Current Prospects Potential: A (Butler and Gordon are premier talents)

Organizational Analysis: Infielders

2006-01-30T17:25:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the delay in the organization reviews. Just got back from Paris (very cold in January). Not too much news on the Royals' front at the moment. Most exciting news at the moment is that Baseball America released their top 10 prospect list: BA Royals' Top 10. You have to have premium access to read the chat wrap and the scouting reports. No real surprises in the top 10 of the list. I wasn't particularly impressed with Kimmey's analysis. I think the Royals' farm system ranks somewhere in the 20-25 range because the Royals don't have good enough pitching depth in the farm system, but their top 5 prospects are very solid. On to the infield analysis:

The Royals' infield has pretty good depth overall, improving considerably over the past few years. The Royals had a major void at 3rd base and catcher before the Beltran trade and were able to add two pretty solid young players at those positions (Teahen and Buck). Adding Grudzielanek improves the second base position considerably, giving Murphy, Blanco, and Gotay needed developmental time in the minors. Berroa will continue to fool around at shortstop, with no competition on the horizon until 2008 or 2009. The Royals' infield also features two of the Royals' best offensive prospects in the organization, Justin Huber and Alex Gordon.

Catchers:

The catcher positon has been a problem since Mike MacFarlane left almost a decade ago. John Buck appears to be the Royals' catcher of the future. Buck is a solid defensive catcher and does a pretty good job of throwing out runners. His game-calling skills still need some work though. Buck has shown good power at times and may hit 15-20 homers. He'll never be a great hitter, but could be a productive bat at the bottom of the lineup and a solid defender.

Prospects: Adam Donachie, Kiel Thibault, Matt Tupman

Donachie is an excellent defender and could make the team by 2008 as a backup. Should find out more about Thibault, Howell, and Everett, the catching trio the Royals drafted last season.

First Base/DH:

The Royals have a crowd at first base. Mike Sweeney has been a mainstay in the middle of the lineup for several years and could be moved to make room for Huber and Butler. Mientkiewicz improves the Royals' defense at first base and provides insurance in case Sweeney has an extended period on the DL. Stairs will play some first base, DH, and maybe stumble into the outfield from time to time.

Prospects: Justin Huber, Kila Kaaihue

Huber is the Royals' first basemen of the future. Huber has an excellent bat and compares well to Mike Sweeney to an almost extraordinary degree.

Second Base:

The Royals signed Mark Grudzielanek to give Blanco, Murphy, and Gotay time to develop. Grudzielanek should improve the Royals' offense and defense at second considerably. Certainly hard not to improve upon the .500-something OPS Blanco, Murphy and Gotay combined to produce last season.

Prospects: Jeff Bianchi, Donnie Murphy, Andres Blanco, Ruben Gotay, Gary Perez

The Royals have pretty good depth at second base. By 2007, when Grudzielanek's contract will likely expire (option for 2007), the Royals should have 3 candidates for the job. Murphy is probably the best overall prospect close to the majors. Murphy has shown pretty good power and has an above-average glove at 2nd. Bianchi has much more upside and could be a potential All-Star down the road.

Shortstop:

The Royals unfortunately gave Berroa a long-term contract. So, we're stuck with him for the near future. The Royals don't really have any shortstop prospects near the majors.

Prospects: Chris McConnell, Andres Blanco, Angel Sanchez

McConnell has earned the reputation as an outstanding defensive shortstop and hit pretty well at Idaho Falls last year. Blanco is a great defender, but can't hit at all.

Third Base:

The Royals are in good shape at third base, despite poor depth. Mark Teahen could be a gold-glove third basemen in a year or two and has shown signs of being an average hitter. If he learns to pull the ball, I think a 20+ HR season isn't out of the question. The Royals' premier talent, Alex Gordon, will challenge Teahen for the third base job. Gordon's bat is more valuable at third base. So, the question will emerge: are we better off with Teahen at 3rd and Gordon in the OF OR Gordon at 3rd and an OF prospect/FA in the OF?

Prospects: Alex Gordon

Overall Grade:

1. Current Infielders' Performance: D (poor defense, lack of production offensively last season)
2. Current Infielders' Potential: C
3. Current Prospects Depth: B- (still thin at catcher, short and third, but better)
4. Current Prospects Potential: A

Overall, the future of the infield looks brighter. The Royals improved their infield offense and defense this offseason. With improving depth and two very talented offensive talents ready to make an impact, the infield should be much improved by 2008.

Organizational Analysis: Bullpen

2006-01-17T12:56:00.000-05:00

First off, Royals Corner continues to provide great free info about the Royals, including an interview with Billy Butler. If you haven't visited Royals Corner yet, I'd highly recommend it. Also, the Royals have just signed Hernandez and Affeldt to one-year deals worth around $1 million apiece, avoiding arbitration. Now, on to the Royals' bullpen.

The Royals' bullpen is one of the strengths of the organization. The Royals have one of the best power bullpens in baseball, with 4 or 5 relievers who can throw in the 94-99 mph range. In addition to a strong core of power arms, the Royals have a pretty good middle relief staff as well. The farm system doesn't have many reliever candidates at the moment, but the Royals should survive without that for now.

Middle Relievers:

Mike Wood and Elmer Dessens will share middle relief duties for the next two years. Wood's sinker does a good job of getting groundouts and he was an average pitcher for the Royals last year. Nothing wrong with that. Dessens throws a sinker as well and should be an average pitcher as well. Joe Mays might also end up in the bullpen if he doesn't get the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

Future middle relievers: Jimmy Gobble, Brian Bass, Kyle Snyder

Setup men:

Burgos and Sisco are going to be the Royals' primary setup men. Burgos has a great fastball that can reach 99 mph as well as a very good splitter when he has command of it. Both Burgos and Sisco struck out over 1 batter per inning last year. Burgos will compete with Sisco for the closer's job in the future. Until then, the Royals will have a very talented group of setup men.

The other one or two spots in the bullpen are questionmarks at the moment, largely dependent on who gets the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Jeremy Affeldt, Denny Bautista, and Leo Nunez will contend for the extra spots. All three are very talented pitchers with 96+ mph fastballs and quality secondary pitches. Talent-wise, the Royals' bullpen is about as good as it gets. Translating that talent into consistent, quality relief will be the number one priority in 2006.

Closer:

MacDougal ended the closer controversy last season, saving 21 games in 25 opportunities. MacDougal was pretty consistent last year and he had pretty good command (24 BBs in 70 1/3 innings). Consistency and command, I never thought I'd associate those with MacDougal. 2006 will tell us whether or not we can count on MacDougal as the team's closer for the near future.

Overall, the bullpen looks pretty good. The Royals' trio of late-inning guys performed very well last year and hopefully their success will continue. The Royals added a solid middle reliever (Dessens) and picked up a pretty good one off waivers (Peralta).

1. Current Relievers' Performance: B+ (consistency was a problem last year)
2. Current Relievers' Potential: A
3. Current Reliever Prospects' Depth/Potential: C (good depth at the major league level helps ease concern here)

Organizational Review: Starting Rotation

2006-01-15T14:53:00.000-05:00

With a new season slowly approaching, it's time to take a detailed look at the organization and the direction its heading. The Royals have a long way to go to become a contender. But, the Royals do have some of the pieces that could make that possible by 2007. I'll break down the organization's depth and talent at each position, examine the organization's direction, and look at the team's financial picture. I'll start with the starting rotation, the weakest aspect of the organization.

The starting rotation has been a big problem for the Royals for the past 10 years. The Royals have been remarkably bad at developing starting pitching. The Royals have had some pretty good offenses at times, but no pitching to go along with it. The first step toward contention is improving the starting rotation situation. The Royals' starters finished last in ERA (6.00) and pitched the fewest innings in the majors. Hopefully, the Royals' free agent additions and improved infield defense will help the starters' ERA get closer to 5.

2006 optimistic outlook: Redman, Elarton, and Mays will hopefully pitch reasonably well (ERA around 4.50-5.25) and eat innings. Zack Greinke and Runelvys Hernandez will put together at least league-average performances.

2006 pessimistic outlook: repeat of 2005

2007 and beyond:

#1 starter:

The Royals really don't have a true ace right now. The closest candidate is probably Zack Greinke, if he regained his outstanding command he showed in his 2004 debut season.

Prospects: None at the moment, Andrew Miller or the Royals' first-round pick if they draft a pitcher

#2 starter:

The Royals don't really have a No. 2 starter right now. Zack Greinke probably fits best here in the future. Greinke has 4 good pitches and pretty good command of them, so he profiles as a No. 2 starter. Denny Bautista also profiles as a No. 2 starter with 3 very good pitches. But, his lack of command, small frame and potential injuries, and the Royals' inability to develop raw pitchers will probably prevent him from reaching his ceiling. Should the Royals move Sisco or Burgos back to the rotation, they might fit here as well.

Prospects: Luis Cota (High Desert)

Cota has a good fastball (mid-90s, good movement) and pitched well in the Midwest League as one of the youngest pitchers. He has a lot of upside if he can develop his secondary pitches and improve his command.

#3 starter:

Runelvys Hernandez profiles as No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy and in shape. Hernandez will probably be a league-average pitcher as his command improves (should as he recovers from TJ surgery).

Prospects: Juan Cedeno (Wichita)

Cedeno will be a starter for Wichita this season. He's a lefty with a mid-90s fastball. Cedeno has been pretty hittable throughout his minor league career and his control hasn't been very good.

#4 starter:

JP Howell will probably be the No. 4 starter by 2007. Howell has well-below average velocity, but still manages to do a pretty good job of striking hitters out (6.69/9 IP).

Prospects: Chris Nicoll (Burlington), Billy Buckner (High Desert/Wichita)

Nicoll displayed good command in college as well as his debut at Idaho Falls. Buckner did reasonably well at High Desert after a good start at Burlington. Both have pretty average stuff.

#5 starter:

Mike Wood may be the No. 5 starter by 2007. Wood pitched pretty well as a starter during the 2005 season. He'll probably move between the long relief role and the No. 5 spot.

Prospects: Matt Campbell (Burlington), Devon Lowery (Wichita), Brian Bass (Wichita)

Other prospects with unknown ceilings: Brent Fisher, Rayner Oliverios, Eric Cordier

Overall Grade:
1. Current Starters' Performance: F
2. Current Starters' Potential: D+
3. Current Prospects Depth: F
4. Current Prospects Potential: D

Overall, the Royals' aren't in good shape here. Even the best case scanerio looks like an average rotation. The Royals have some young starters, but the depth isn't very good. Zack Greinke and JP Howell were really bad and Denny Bautista spent most of the season on the DL. Runelvys Hernandez is a decent starter, but he's getting pretty close to free agency and isn't very young. The Royals convert so few young starters into quality major league starters that the Royals most improve their depth just to fill out the rotation.

How to improve the rotation: The biggest step to improving the rotation is to draft a starter in the 2006 draft. This is the Royals' best bet to fill the void at the front of the rotation. The Royals must focus on pitching in this draft and figure out why they can't develop starting pitching.

The organizational reviews get more optimistic from here. Next up, a look at one of the bright spots in the organization: the bullpen

Early look at the Royals' Top 10 Prospects

2006-01-09T17:29:00.000-05:00

The Royals are just over a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting. Spring Training isn't that far away and we'll get an early preview of the team we'll see in 2007. Having Butler, Gordon, and Huber in the lineup will be fun to watch. These are the Royals' best prospects and all three will be at AA or AAA this season. The Royals' top three prospects are among the best trios of hitting prospects in the minors. After those three, the list drops off quite a bit. The Royals have serious pitching depth issues that remain unresolved. With the first overall pick, the Royals should be able to add a potential future ace to the farm system. The 2004 and 2005 drafts added a nice group of position players, so hopefully the Royals will focus more on pitching in 2006. But, that's a moot point if the Royals can't develop any of the pitching talent they have to work with.

1. Billy Butler/OF/DH: Butler is coming off a remarkable season, particularly for a 19-year-old. Butler has great raw power and should be a good contact hitter as well. Butler hit 30 HRs during the regular season and hit above .300 at High A and AA. His plate discipline has been good so far, although he struggled a bit in that area at AA. He'll have no trouble finding a spot in the lineup, but finding a position in the field might be tough. It might be hard to hide his glove in LF, although surely he couldn't be worse than Emil Brown or Matt Stairs. Corner outfield is a position of need in the organization, so he'll get every chance to play there.

2005 Stats: AA 112 ABs .313/.357/.527 9 2Bs 5 HRs 19 RBIs
High A 379 ABs .348/.419/.636 30 2Bs 25 HRs 91 RBIs

2. Alex Gordon/3B/OF: Gordon had a decent debut in the Arizona Fall League, exhibiting good plate discipline with a .403 OBP. Gordon has very good power from the left side of the plate. Gordon has drawn a lot of comparisons to Mark Teixeira and could be the Royals' No. 3 hitter of the future. The biggest questionmark is Gordon's future position. The Royals are going to keep him at third until Teahen proves himself. If Teahen becomes a solid third basemen, then Gordon will likely be moved to the corner outfielder.

3. Justin Huber/1B/DH: Huber had a productive year in the minors, putting up a 1.002 OPS at AA. Huber hit pretty well at AAA, but struggled at the big league level. Part of that was because he was injured at the end of the season. Huber has shown a lot of similarities to Mike Sweeney. Their minor league numbers are very similar and both have been converted from catcher to 1st basemen. Huber will have most of the season to polish his defense at 1st base and should be the Royals' 1st basemen in 2007.

AA 335 ABs .343/.432/.570 22 2Bs 16 HRs 74 RBIs
AAA 113 ABs .274/.374/.540 7 2Bs 7 HRs 23 RBIs
ML 78 ABs .218/.271/.256 3 2Bs 0 HRs 6 RBIs

4. JP Howell/SP: Howell quickly rose through the Royals' farm system and made a quick debut in June. Howell had a terrific debut, pitching 5 innings and striking out 8. Howell has maintained a solid strikeout rate because of his solid repertoire of secondary pitchers. Howell must improve his command of a below-average fastball and cut down on the walks (39 in 72 2/3 innings). With the addition of 3 new starters, Howell will have the opportunity to work on those things at AAA.

High A 3-1 1.96 ERA 46 IP 33 Hits 24 BBs 48 SOs
AA 2-0 2.50 ERA 18 IP 12 Hits 5 BBs 23 SOs
AAA 3-1 4.06 ERA 37.2 IP 40 Hits 19 BBs 29 SOs
ML 3-5 6.19 ERA 72.2 IP 73 Hits 39 BBs 54 SOs

5. Chris Lubanski/OF: Lubanski put up some great offensive numbers at High Desert. Lubanski had 72 extra base hits and drove in 116 runs, even with a very slow start to the season. However, Lubanski's great numbers were likely a result of his home park, as his road splits weren't nearly as impressive. AA will tell a lot about Lubanski's future. His defense in CF is suspect and his arm isn't good enough to play RF.

High A 531 ABs .301/.349/.554 38 2Bs 28 HRs 116 ABs 14 SBs

6. Luis Cota/SP: Cota had a pretty good season in the Midwest League. Cota has a very good fastball, but needs to improve his secondary pitches and his command. Cota's command will be tested at High Desert this season. A lot of pressure rests on Cota's shoulders, as he's the only intriguing pitching prospect below AAA.

Low A 5-8 4.01 ERA 148 IP 143 H 137 SOs 63 BBs

7. Jeffrey Bianchi 18/SS: Bianchi had a great debut in the Arizona Rookie League before sustaining a back injury. He's a very advanced hitter who should move quickly and could enter the 2nd base picture by 2008. Bianchi would be rated higher, but the limited sample size brought him down a couple of spots. Bianchi will probably start at the Pioneer League or Burlington.

AZL .408/.484/.745 98 ABs 7 2Bs 4 3Bs 6 HRs 30 RBIs

8. Leo Nunez 22/RP: Nunez has displayed pretty good command and pitched well most of the time for the Royals. But, there were times when he couldn't get anybody out. Nunez has a fastball that can reach 97 mph with pretty good movement. He should be apart of a solid bullpen at some point during this season.

AA 1-0 0.69 ERA 13 IP 2 BBs 14 SOs
ML 3-2 8.23 ERA 42.2 IP 13 BBs 26 SOs

9. Chris McConnell 19/SS: McConnell had a very good season at Idaho Falls. McConnell is considered an excellent defender, so his bat was a nice surprise. McConnell will likely start at Burlington next year or could jump to High Desert. The Royals' post-Berroa infield could feature Bianchi at 2nd and McConnell at SS. Of course, that's a long ways away.

Pio 262 ABs .328/.402/.511 16 2Bs 7 3Bs 6 HRs 36 RBIs

10. Mitch Maier 23/OF: I feel like I'm forgetting someone, mainly because I don't think Maier should be in the top 10. Nonetheless, I couldn't find a better candidate. Maier is the best defensive outfielder in the farm system, has pretty good speed, and has shown solid gap power. Maier's swing needs lots of work, so he's still at least a year away.

High A 221 ABs .336/.370/.583 26 2Bs 8 HRs 32 RBIs
AA 322 ABs .255/.289/.416 21 2Bs 7 HRs 49 RBIs

10 Questions for 2006

2006-01-01T22:10:00.000-05:00

The Royals will have some big questions that will be answered in 2006. This is going to be a pivotal year for the direction of the franchise. By the end of 2006, we should know where or not the "youth movement" is succeeding and where or not Baird's plans are working. If not, expect some major changes during the 2006 offseason. Here are 10 questions that should be resolved by the end of 2006:

Will Jackson County finally pass something to improve the Sports Complex or build new stadiums?

Who will be the starting corner outfielders in 2007?

Who will be Buddy Bell's next obsession (Terrence Long last year)?

Will Gordon, Butler, Huber, and Lubanski continue their track toward KC as the future 3-4-5-6 hitters?

Will the Royals draft the best player available and sign them?

Will Baird's offseason moves improve the Royals significantly?

Will Zack Greinke emerge as the Royals' future ace or be the prospect that couldn't miss who did?

Will the "youth movement" be a success or will the Royals choose an alternative plan?

Will Allard Baird be fired?

An early look at the division

2005-12-27T00:46:00.000-05:00

The AL Central is shaping up to be the best division in baseball. The White Sox, Indians, and Twins have three of the best pitching staffs in baseball. It's tough to find two teams more complete than the White Sox and the Indians. Both of those clubs look outstanding on paper and capable of winning 95-100 games. The Twins have made some improvements to their offense and have some good young arms. The Tigers look pretty mediocre as usual. The Royals have improved their club, but so have most of the teams in the division.

Chicago White Sox

Rotation: Buehrle, Garcia, Vazquez, Contreras, Garland
Bullpen: Cotts, Politte, Marte, Jenks, Hermanson (CL), McCarthy

The White Sox have a very good rotation. The rotation finished 6th in ERA last year and 3rd in WHIP. Javier Vazquez is an upgrade over Orlando Hernandez and Brandon McCarthy had a nice debut as a starter (4.03 ERA in 10 starts). The White Sox bullpen also looks very good. Hermanson saved 34 of 39 games last season and the setup duo of Cotts and Politte was extremely effective (ERAs of 1.94 and 2.00 respectively). The addition of Jenks and McCarthy to the pen make it especially strong.

Position Players: Pierzynski (C), Konerko/Thome (1B/DH), Iguchi (2B), Uribe (SS), Crede (3B), Podsednik (LF), Anderson (CF), Dye (RF)

The White Sox return most of an excellent defensive team (2nd in the majors in defensive efficiency). The White Sox lineup still has pretty good power (200 HRs last year), however the Sox finished 15th overall in OPS. The strength of the offense will depend on the health and production of Jim Thome, a career .970 OPS hitter. If healthy, the White Sox would have a very potent 1B/DH combo with Konerko and Thome.

Cleveland Indians

Rotation: Lee, Sabathia, Byrd, Westbrook, Johnson
Bullpen: Wickman (CL), Rhodes, Cabrera, Riske, Sauerbeck, Betancourt

The Indians' rotation features two major changes: addition of Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson. Paul Byrd for Kevin Millwood is a slight downgrade and Jason Johnson for Scott Elarton is pretty even. So, the Indians' rotation that finished 10th in ERA last season should still be an above-average rotation in 2006. The Indians' bullpen finished first in ERA and WHIP last season. Wickman had a career year as closer, saving a career high 45 games. Wickman's age and inconsistency could be a downfall of the Indians' bullpen. The Indians retained their strong bullpen and should have one of the best bullpens in baseball again in 2006.

Position Players: Martinez (C), Broussard/Hafner (1B/DH), Belliard (2B), Peralta (SS), Boone (3B), Crisp (LF), Sizemore (CF), Blake (RF)

The Indians' young lineup was one of the most productive in baseball. Hafner, Peralta, Martinez, and Sizemore put up great numbers for the Indians, helping the Indians finish 4th in team OPS and HRs. With a solid core of young position players, the offense should continue to improve. The Indians also finished 3rd in the majors in defensive efficiency. Like the White Sox, the Indians have a very complete baseball team.

Minnesota Twins

Rotation: Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse, Baker
Bullpen: Nathan (CL), Rincon, Crain, Mulholland, Guerrier, Liriano, Durbin

The Twins round out 3 very good pitching staffs in the division. The Twins' rotation finished in the top 10 in ERA and 1st in K/BB ratio (3.47) last year. Removing Mays from the rotation should improve the rotation, especially with some good young pitchers waiting to obtain a spot in the rotation (Liriano, Durbin, Baker). Given the Twins' starting pitching depth, Liriano and Durbin will probably end up in the bullpen, giving the Twins' a nice group of power arms. The Twins could have a very formidable group of setup men to get the game to their outstanding closer Joe Nathan.

Position Players: Mauer (C), Morneau/TBA or White (1B/DH), Castillo (2B), Bartlett/Castro (SS), Batista (3B), Stewart/White (LF), Ford (CF), Kubel (RF)

The Twins' offense was a problem last year, with an team OPS lower than the Royals. The Twins added Tony Batista, Luis Castillo, and Rondell White to improve the offense and are still searching for a DH. Those players, minus Rondell White, should improve the defense as well. The Twins finished 7th in defensive efficiency last season. Much of the Twins' success depends on the performance of the young players (Mauer and Morneau performing at original expectations). The Twins have a pretty complete team, but are still needing some help offensively.

Detroit Tigers

Rotation: Bonderman, Rogers, Maroth, Robertson, Verlander
Bullpen: Jones (CL), Rodney, Walker, German, Spurling

The Tigers' rotation features two potential future aces in Bondermand and Verlander. Bonderman, Verlander, and Zumaya could be a potent trio in the near future. Bondermand, Maroth, and Robertson gave the Tigers roughly league-average efforts last season. Overall, the Tigers' rotation should be pretty average unless Bonderman and Verlander improve considerably. The Tigers' bullpen is a questionmark. The Tigers signed Todd Jones, a 37-year-old closer who saved 40 games last year for the Marlins. Rodney, Walker, German, and Spurling pitched pretty well for the Tigers last season. The Tigers bullpen looks pretty average at this point.

Position Players: Rodriguez (C), Shelton/Pena (1B/DH), Polanco (2B), Guillen (SS), Inge (3B), Monroe (LF), Granderson (CF), Ordonez (RF)

The Tigers' offense is pretty much like the rest of the team, very average. If Ordonez produces a .300-30-100 season like he did regularly for Chicago, that'd help the Tigers' offense. Curtis Granderson had an impressive debut and could also help the Tigers' offense. The Tigers finished 16th in defensive efficiency last year and will probably be average defensively again in 2006.

Rankings:
Rotations: 1. White Sox, 2. Twins, 3. Indians, 4. Tigers, 5. Royals
Bullpens: 1a. White Sox, 1b. Indians, 1c. Twins (3-way tie for first essentially), 4. Royals, 5. Tigers
Offense: 1. Indians, 2. White Sox, 3. Tigers, 4. Royals (maybe generous), 5. Twins

It's pretty tough to put the Royals ahead of anyone in the division in most categories. The White Sox, Indians and Twins all have outstanding bullpens with proven pitchers. The Royals could certainly join that group of outstanding bullpens if the young power arms pitch well. The Royals' offense and rotations should be improved, but not enough to move up in the division.

Home for the Holidays

2005-12-25T09:47:00.000-05:00

I've taken a bit of a hiatus from the Daily Lancer lately, but I thought I'd stop by to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. I'm not religious myself, but I always appreciate the warm feeling of family, community and reflection that I get on days like today. Merry merry.

Speaking of reflecting, I've been reflecting on the actions of the Royals over the past several weeks, and while they haven't acquired any individual difference makers at any position, I can at least see the sense behind the acquisitions. Barring disaster (which is admittedly difficult to bar given the Royals' recent history), the Royals have improved their defense immensely and I'm very happy to see that they're focused on this. The Royals have finished last in defensive efficiency 3 of the last 4 years, and I don't think there's any question it affects the way their young pitchers approach the game (and leads to their finesse pitchers getting pummelled). Its difficult to quantify, but my hope is that Greinke, Hernandez, Affeldt and the like can finally pitch without the pressure of having offensive defenders behind them.

I'm less enamored with the starting pitcher acquisitions, but Mark Redman and Scott Elarton are ostensibly actual major league starting pitchers in contrast to the Kyle Snyders of the baseball universe. The Royals' recent track record with pitchers of this ilk (Lima, Anderson, May) is, er, spotty, so how I can I NOT expect that one or both of these guys will finish in the bottom 10 in VORP for pitchers? The notion that this team will finally have a collection of players who can actualy catch the ball is the only thing that sustains my belief that these acquisitions will work out.

I do not like Joe Mays. $1 to 2 million for a replacement level 5th starter is a foolish investment, and I don't buy the "depth" argument (warm bodies are not depth). Mike Wood, Jimmy Gobble and Jeremy Affeldt are better in-house candidates than Mays, all with upside and lower cost. Baird seems to believe that Mays is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and that he'll finally be all the way back next year. I'd argue that All-The-Way-Back Joe Mays is below league average anyway, but I suppose if Baird is right then he'll be worth the investment. I'm not betting on it (and I have a poor recent record with gambling anyway...)

In any case, I give Baird credit for staying with the program rather than drifting in an attempt to salvage his job. All of his acquisitions are short-term, low-to-moderate cost and allow the Royals to keep their not-ready-for-prime-time prospects in the minors for at least one more season (I believe I wrote the same thing before the 2004 season, however, so that could be damning praise). I can't say with any confidence that this plan will bear any fruit, but at least it is a plan.

Baird will be fired after next season but it won't be because he's not a good soldier for the organization.

The 2006 Kansas City Royals: Part II

2005-12-22T15:04:00.000-05:00

The 2006 Royals' pitching staff is almost complete. The Royals may still add another free agent starter, preferably one with some upside (BH Kim or Wade Miller). The Royals' two biggest additions to the rotation were veteran starters Mark Redman and Scott Elarton. Bobby Madritsch (surgery), Victor Santos (Rule V), and Sean Etherton (Rule V) may help the Royals at some point during the season, but that depends on individual circumstances). The bullpen returns a core of power arms that pitched very well last year. The Royals need them to continue to pitch well in 2006.

Starting Rotation:

#1 Runelvys Hernandez
#2 Zack Greinke
#3 Mark Redman
#4 Scott Elarton
#5 Jeremy Affeldt/Kim or Miller

AAA rotation: Bobby Madritsch, JP Howell, Jimmy Gobble, Brian Bass (has yet to master AA, but it's about time to find out if he's worth a spot on the 40-man)

I previewed the Royals' rotation recently: Starting Rotation Post, so I won't go into much detail. On paper, the Royals' rotation still looks pretty bad. The Royals' rotation has some upside with Greinke, Hernandez, and Affeldt. The Royals' rotation will improve the most if those three pitch up to their potential. Redman and Elarton will improve the rotation some, but are probably the difference between finishing 28th in starter ERA as opposed to 30th. Howell will probably start at AAA. The Royals have okay depth from their AAA rotation. Gobble might get consideration for the bullpen because there's just one lefty (Sisco), but his numbers against lefties aren't good.

Bullpen: Mike Wood, Elmer Dessens, Joel Peralta, Denny Bautista, Andrew Sisco, Ambiorix Burgos, Mike MacDougal (CL)

The Royals' bullpen was one of the few bright spots last year. MacDougal, Burgos, and Sisco were lights out during the last 3 innings of games last year. All three had ERAs under 4 and averaged more than 1 strikeout per inning. The Royals should still have a strong core of power arms, with the new face probably being Denny Bautista. The bullpen could be very strong overall with two solid middle relievers (Wood and Dessens) at the front of the bullpen. However, I am concerned about the consistency of MacDougal, especially in Hansen's absence. MacDougal and Affeldt have been very inconsistent throughout their careers so far, so I'm also concerned that Burgos and Sisco will show the same inconsistencies. It's difficult for hard throwers to have consistent mechanics and I don't expect the Royals' pitching instruction to be very helpful. The bullpen should be pretty good with the talent at the back-end and has the potential to be outstanding.

Offseason Notes:

The Royals appear to be close to signing Reggie Sanders to a 2-year, $10 million deal. Sanders offers help in three badly needed areas: power, speed, and OF defense. Sanders has averaged 23 HRs and 17 SBs over the past 3 years and is a solid average defender. He would allow the Royals to move Brown to left, where he won't be as great a liability on defense. I'd much prefer a one-year deal with an option, but the contract isn't too bad. It is a fairly substantial risk for an injury-prone 38-year-old outfielder. Although, I'm not too concerned about it because he only had a broken leg, neck injury, and a sprained back last year.

In other news, the Royals have traded Matt Diaz and Chris DeMaria for Ricardo F. Rodriguez and Justin Barnes. Neither are particularly young, but both have pretty good strikeout numbers. Barnes, in particular, pitched well at Class A last year, striking out 79 in 76 IP and walking just 25.

The 2006 Kansas City Royals

2005-12-20T22:57:00.000-05:00

The 2006 Royals roster is almost complete. The Royals may still add a corner outfielder and/or another starter. Overall, the Royals have made considerable changes to the roster by adding several stopgap players. The difference between this year and last year is the quality of the stopgap players. The Royals have added some decent veteran players who should improve the ballclub in 2006. How much improvement will occur is the big question. The recent additions probably add 10 wins to the Royals' record. Any additional improvement will come from the Royals' youth.

The Infielders:

Catchers (2): John Buck, Paul Bako
First Basemen (3): Mike Sweeney, Matt Stairs, Doug Mientkiewicz
Second Basemen (2): Mark Grudzielanek, Esteban German
Shortstop (1): Angel Berroa
Third Basemen (1): Mark Teahen

The Royals' infield should be improved. The Royals got a consistent hitter in Grudzielanek who can get on-base for Mike Sweeney. Last year, the Royals' trio of 2nd base prospects combined for a .578 OPS and their FRAA was -6. Mark Grudzielanek had a .741 OPS and his FRAA was 0. So, Grudzielanek should bring much more consistent production offensively and defensively. The Royals' other second basemen, Esteban German, should also improve the top of the lineup with speed and good on-base skills. Overall, I think this will be the most improved position. The catcher and shortstop positions production probably won't change much. I expect Teahen to improve offensively and defensively after being rushed last year. The Royals' production at first should stay about the same, but the defense will improve some. Mientkiewicz provides good insurance in case Sweeney gets hurt and his defense will be helpful.

Outfielders:

LF: Chip Ambres, Aaron Guiel (hopefully replaced with FA)
CF: David DeJesus
RF: Emil Brown

The outfield is very similar to last year without a free agent signing. Ambres and Guiel should match Long's production (.699 OPS and -7 FRAA). Emil Brown is a terrible fielder in RF (-14 FRAA). The Royals' corner outfield defense was pathetic last year. Long and Brown dropped more balls than the Sooner's freshman receivers. Ideally, the Royals should sign a good defensive RF and move Brown to LF.

If the Royals keep the status quo in the outfield, the outfield will be well below-average. If the Royals can add Jeromy Burnitz, Reggie Sanders, or Preston Wilson, the outfield would improve substantially. Not only would that add a 20+ HR hitter to the middle of the lineup, but it would vastly improve the Royals' outfield defense which needs help badly.

Potential 2006 Lineup

David DeJesus CF (.359 OBP)
Mark Grudzielanek 2B (.334 OBP)
Mike Sweeney DH
Jeromy Burnitz RF
Emil Brown LF
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B
Mark Teahen 3B
John Buck C
Angel Berroa SS

The top of the lineup looks much better. DeJesus and Grudzielanek give the Royals two batters who can get on base for Sweeney, Burnitz, and Brown. I feel comfortable with the first 3 hitters in the lineup. But, after that, the lineup is well-below average. The lineup still lacks power and speed, but it is an improvement over last season.

I'll discuss the 2006 pitching staff shortly.

Starting Rotation

2005-12-18T01:20:00.000-05:00

How much better will the Royals' starting rotation be? Well, subtracting Lima and Anderson is a step in the right direction. The Royals appear to have done a decent job of adding some SP depth to the roster. Hopefully, the added depth will ensure that Luis Cota doesn't make his major-league debut after 5 good starts at High Desert.

Starting Rotation:

The Royals have added 4 new starting pitching candidates this offseason, upgrading the Royals' depth. The Royals have added Mark Redman, Scott Elarton, Elmer Dessens, and Bobby Madritsch. The Royals may also get Victor Santos and Seth Etherton back if they don't stay on their new team's big league roster. So, the Royals' starting pitching depth has improved, with 11 to 13 potential starters.

Sure Things (4): Zack Greinke, Runelvys Hernandez, Mark Redman, Scott Elarton
Other options (7-9): Mike Wood, Elmer Dessens, Jeremy Affeldt, Jimmy Gobble, Denny Bautista, JP Howell, Bobby Madritsch, Victor Santos, Sean Etherton

The depth is better, but is the quality better? Mark Redman and Scott Elarton are an upgrade over Lima and Anderson, but who isn't? Redman and Elarton (minus the Colorado stint) have been roughly league-average pitchers over the past 2 years. Factoring in an improved, but still poor Royals' infield defense, I expect both pitcher's ERAs to be around 5.00.

The biggest improvement will have to come from Greinke and Hernandez. Greinke had a terrible season last year, but had a couple of months where he pitched like a No. 2 starter. Greinke's control went from great in 2004 (K/BB ratio of 4) to pretty good (K/BB ratio of 2.1). Greinke also struggled badly against lefties who had a .941 OPS against him. Hernandez pitched well into mid-August, when fatigue and a suspension took a toll on his performance. Hernandez struggled with his control, which is not uncommon for pitchers coming off of TJ surgery. So, with improved control and endurance, Hernandez should improve this season.

The fifth spot is pretty much wide open at this point. Jeremy Affeldt will go into the spring preparing to start. I think Affeldt will be motivated to win the 5th spot, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him win it. Affeldt seems capable of pitching very well if he's motivated. Mike Wood is probably the second most likely option. Wood made 10 starts last year, but gave up 12 HRs in that short span. Still, Wood has shown he can be a decent fifth starter. The next option is probably JP Howell. Howell struggled in his first season, but that was mainly because he was rushed to the big leagues. I think Howell will probably start at AAA. Denny Bautista will also be in the mix. However, because of the Royals' fascination with power arms in the bullpen and his durability questions, he'll probably be in the bullpen. Gobble will probably start in AAA or could make the team as a middle reliever. Madritsch, Santos, and Etherton may become options by midseason, as injuries or poor performance take their inevitable toll.

Breaking News: 4 New Royals

2005-12-16T10:14:00.000-05:00

According to the Kansas City Star, the Royals have signed Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Bako and Scott Elarton. The good news is that the most of the deals are short-term deals. The Kansas City Star says that Elarton is likely getting a two-year deal and the others are one-year deals (Grudz has an option for a second year). While none of these moves are really anything to get excited about, the Royals did add some veterans to help solidify some of the weaknesses on the team. Mientkiewicz is a good defender at 1B and Grudz is an average defender at 2B, both improvements over the existing players defensively. I'm a bit anxious about the Elarton signing because he's been pretty inconsistent and will have a mediocre defense behind him this year. However, Elarton has put up league-average ERAs over the past two seasons with the Indians (4.53 and 4.61).

Before I go into detail about each player, here's why I consider today's signings good progress for the Royals. The first step the Royals must take is making this team respectable. These players should improve the offense, defense and pitching as well as add some major league veterans (not AAA ones). Moreover, these signings don't distract from the overall plan of the Royals. The Royals acquired players to fix team weaknesses until the organization has players ready to fill their roles. The Royals signed most of these players to one-year deals, which is in the best interest of the club. The next wave of prospects (Butler, Gordon, Huber, Murphy, Blanco, etc) need to spend a year at AA and AAA before assuming regular roles with the big league club. The free agent market is also much, much better next year. So, the Royals could find a impact player or two who could make a difference for the team in the long-term. Of course, to get an impact player to come to KC, the Royals must show significant progress and hopefully these moves will help the Royals accomplish that.

The best signing out of the group was Mark Grudzielanek. Grudzielanek gives the Royals a solid average defender at 2nd basemen and a decent offensive second basemen. The signing was fairly economical at $4 million for this year and a $3 million option if he gets 500 ABs. I'm not too excited about the option if it prevents the Royals from obtaining a compensation pick for him if the option isn't vested. Not sure about the details of the option.

The Doug Mientkiewicz signing was a pretty good one. Mientkiewicz got a 1-year deal at $1.85 million and 700K in incentives. He has a reputation as an excellent defender (although his FRAA was -5 last year, defensive stats are flaky). He'll improve the Royals' defense at first considerably and ensure that Joe McEwing or Estaben German aren't playing first or batting third in the lineup.

The Scott Elarton deal is questionable. Elarton struggled at Colorado but has been pretty successful for the Indians over the past two seasons. Still, his home runs allowed and inconsistency are worrisome. At 2 years and $8 million, the Royals might have been able to find a better option. For example, Byung-Hyun Kim had a pretty good season for Colorado and few teams have expressed interest in him. Kim is one of the younger starters on the market and wouldn't require a significant investment.

Paul Bako's main duties are to handle the young pitching staff and help John Buck improve his skills as a catcher.

Overall, given the inflated prices of free agents and the decimated state of the team, I think Baird has done a pretty good job so far. The starting pitching acquistions aren't particular impressive, but should help stabilize the rotation and add depth. Mientkiewicz and Grudzielanek will improve the Royals' infield defense and help the offense some. Baird has improved the team without mortgaging the future payroll and without deviating from the overall plan.

Next up, Baird's continued search for a power-hitting corner outfielder. The Royals have reportedly made a 3-year, $15 million offer to Jacque Jones. The Royals have also expressed interest in Reggie Sanders and Jeromy Burnitz, whom I would prefer. I like Jones as a short-term option, but the Royals can do better in the long-term. Sanders and Burnitz would solidify the middle of the lineup and improve the outfield defense. The Royals may also look to add another starter.

Winter Meetings Wrap

2005-12-09T17:42:00.000-05:00

The Royals made some pretty uninspiring moves at the Winter Meetings. The Royals traded Bayliss and Blackwell for Mark Redman. After looking at this deal for a while, I'm becoming more suspucious at Redman's Lima-esque second half (7.08 ERA). Redman has been pretty consistent over the past 4 years, posting ERAs under 5 and pitching more than 175 innings each season. So, I'm not terribly worried.

The Royals also signed Elmer Dessens to be a "6 to 9" out guy. The back of the Royals' pen is pretty well set, but the Royals needed some middle relief help. Dessens gives the Royals another option for spot starters. Another move with little upside, but not much investment.

The Royals traded their Rule V Pick to the Rangers for Esteban German, a 26-year-old second basemen. German had outstanding numbers at AAA last year, stealing 43 bases in 49 attempts and putting up a .313/.400/.423 line. But, as we learned from Pickering, minor league numbers don't necessarily translate into big league production. Baird called German an "underestimated player", similar to Ibanez or Brown. Of course, for every Brown and Ibanez, there's a Mateo or Nunez. Perhaps Baird's scouting has found the Royals a second basemen with good on-base skills and speed, which would be welcome additions. The Royals didn't lose much by trading their Rule V Pick.

But, I still don't understand why the Royals didn't grab one of the pitchers available. The Royals could have selected JD Martin, stuck him on the 60-day DL and let him make a few spot starts in August once injuries start to take their toll. Martin was just 22 and pitched great at AA, with a 2.38 ERA and 63 K's to 8 walks in 56 2/3 innings. Bob Zimmerman or Rafael Rodriguez could have given the Royals another power arm in the bullpen. The Royals didn't have anything to lose by selecting one of those pitchers.

The Royals also lost three potential starting pitching candidates, DJ Carrasco, Victor Santos and Sean Etherton. The Royals lost Santos and Etherton in the Rule V Draft, so would be returned if they don't stay on their new team's big league roster. Santos was pretty good for the Brewers over the past 2 seasons, averaging 26 starts and a 4.78 ERA. The Pirates picked him up, probably to replace Redman, and may end up with the better end of the deal (2 pitching prospects and a cheap, effective starter). I think Santos should have been protected on the 40-man roster. The Royals 40-man roster is a joke, with guys like Kyle Snyder and Shawn Camp. The Royals can do much better than that.

The Royals' uninspiring moves have taken up about $6 million or so in payroll for next year, so the Royals aren't finished. Baird still wants another veteran starter (Tomko, Kim, Armas, Elarton, etc.) and a corner outfielder (Sanders, Burnitz). Hopefully, those moves do more to improve the Royals because they still have a long way to go.

Breaking News: Mark Redman to the Royals

2005-12-07T13:58:00.000-05:00

Mark Redman to the Royals for Jonah Bayliss and a player to be named later. That seems like a pretty good deal for the Royals. Bayliss has potential to be a good reliever, but for the time being, the Royals have good depth there and Bayliss is expendable. So, as long as the player to be named later isn't one of the Royals' top prospects, it's a good deal for the Royals.

Mark Redman makes $4.5 million this year and has a mutual option for next season. Redman gives the Royals a good pitcher who should be league-average or slighty worse than league-average. Redman's best year was in 2003 with the Marlins, when he had a 3.59 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 190 IP. His strikeout rate dropped to about 4.5 K's/9 IP in 2004 and 2005. Redman isn't a hard thrower (fastball in the mid 80s), but has a nice repertoire of secondary pitches, including a curveball, splitter and a very good changeup. Overall, seems like a pretty good deal so far, giving the Royals a decent veteran starter. But, I'll have to wait until we find out who the PTBNL is before I call it a great trade.

Winter Meetings

2005-12-06T21:20:00.000-05:00

The Royals have watched Paul Byrd take $7 million less to play for the Indians. So, that begs the question. Will any free agents come to Kansas City? Maybe so, if money is the bottomline. But, the Royals have done little to make Kansas City an attractive destination.

The Royals are likely destined for the second-tier of starters including Kenny Rogers, Jason Johnson, Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Elarton, or Tony Armas. Most of those pitchers are certainly an upgrade to the rotation and should be a better investment than Paul Byrd for 3 years, $21 million. The Royals are also interested in acquiring Kris Benson from the New York Mets, probably for relief help (Affeldt or MacDougal). The Royals would save a compensation pick by trading him. However, the Royals are very closing to signing Elmer Dessens and Todd Pratt, both of whom will cost a second-round pick. Furthermore, the Royals are letting DJ Carrasco, one of just two starters with an ERA under 5.00. Is there a big difference between Dessens and Carrasco that I'm missing?

Just as I'm writing this, the Benson to the Royals rumor continues to gain momentum. It's sounds like the Royals don't want to give up MacDougal and Affeldt for Benson (rightfully so) and might just trade Affeldt and a prospect. So long as that prospect isn't Butler, Gordon, Huber, or Cota, that's a fine deal to me.

The Trail's Gone Cold

2005-12-02T21:16:00.000-05:00

I've been sitting back and watching the free agent machinations play out over the past few weeks to assess the Royals' acquisition possibilities. I'd managed to delude myself into believing that the Royals stood a fighting chance of acquiring some relatively young, talented free agents who still had some upside, but after seeing the amount of cash doled out for mediocre middle relievers, 5 year contracts for 30-year old closers with exactly 2 years of success, I'm feeling much less sanguine about this offseason.

Word on the street is that the Royals are targeting Paul Byrd to the tune of a 3 year, $21 million contract. I could not be any less excited about Paul Byrd. He's a health disaster waiting to happen, and his ERA would jump 2 points pitching in front of that horrid Royal defense. And the Royals want to be on the hook to this guy for 3 years? If Paul Byrd is getting THAT contract, what will Matt Morris get? What will Jarrod Washburn (whom I don't like anyway) get? I shudder to think.

I know free agent season is hardly over yet, and perhaps the Royals will surprise us all by signing A.J. Burnett to a 5 year, $60 million deal, but the harsh reality is that this team is not going to get much better through free agency. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Jeff Bianchi, and (hopefully) Andrew Miller - you can't get here fast enough.

Free Agent Update

2005-12-01T13:23:00.000-05:00

In the latest Kansas City Star Article, Baird suggests that the Royals are still after Paul Byrd. Baird says that the Royals will have to give Byrd a similar contract to what Loaiza got earlier this week. The Royals are also interested in Matt Morris, Kenny Rogers, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton, and Shawn Estes, but have no interest in Javier Vazquez. The Royals need to add at least one reliable veteran starter and probably another starter as well.

The Royals have apparently made an offer to Jacque Jones, believed to be a 2-year deal. It looks like it will take a 3 or 4 year deal, however, to sign him. That really doesn't fit the Royals' plans, as they have several OF prospects near the majors. The Royals have also made a offer to Reggie Sanders, a two-year deal as well. The Royals are also considering Jeromy Burnitz, Preston Wilson, and Juan Encarnacion. I'd like the Royals to sign two power-hitting corner outfielders that improve the OF defense and at least one reliable starter. That should be doable given the Royals' $25 million budget.

The Royals' best bet may be to sign a couple corner outfielders who can improve the team's outfield defense and solidify the middle of the lineup. Burnitz, Sanders, or Wilson will not require long-term deals. If the Royals load money on the first year, they will have enough money to add a couple good starters from next year's free agent crop, which is MUCH deeper than this year's.

Spend It or Save It?

2005-11-28T19:22:00.000-05:00

The Royals have $25 million to spend this offseason. I will be very surprised if the Royals' payroll is $50 million next year. More likely, it will be something close to last year's payroll at $35-40 million. Overall, this is a very poor free agent market (especially when you consider that Tony Graffanino is a Type "A" free agent and is seeking a 3-year contract).

Esteban Loaiza is off the free agent market, signing a 3-year, $21 million deal with the A's. That leaves Matt Morris, Paul Byrd, and Kenny Rogers as the possible targets for the Royals. Of those three, I'd prefer Morris or Rogers. Rogers has been solid over the past 4 seasons. He had a 3.46 ERA last year in a hitter's park behind a terrible defense up the middle. Rogers might not be the best clubhouse guy, but he can still pitch. As noted in the previous post, there are some trends that indicate that Morris is on the decline. He'd also have to adjust to a new league. But, he's still a pretty good pitcher. All of these pitchers have significant risks, and probably aren't worth a 3-year deal at $21 million. But, that might be what it takes to get them to come to Kansas City.

The Royals best bet might be to offer Byrd and Rogers very generous 1-year deals or 2-year deals. The Royals have good flexibility in the short-term and next year's free agent market is much better. Here's a list of starters who will be free agents next year from Rotoworld:

"Barry Zito (Athletics), Mark Buehrle (White Sox)*, Mark Mulder (Cardinals), Jason Schmidt (Giants), John Smoltz (Braves)*, Jon Garland (White Sox), Mike Mussina (Yankees)*, Kerry Wood (Cubs)*, Andy Pettitte (Astros), Adam Eaton (Padres), Kelvim Escobar (Angels), Jason Marquis (Cardinals), Brad Radke (Twins), Kip Wells (Pirates), Greg Maddux (Cubs), Tom Glavine (Mets), John Thomson (Braves), Ted Lilly (Blue Jays), Jeff Suppan (Cardinals), Randy Wolf (Phillies), Wade Miller (Red Sox), Vicente Padilla (Phillies), Tim Wakefield (Red Sox)*, Steve Trachsel (Mets), Cory Lidle (Phillies), Jaret Wright (Yankees)*, Gil Meche (Mariners), Mark Redman (Pirates), Orlando Hernandez (White Sox), David Wells (Red Sox), Woody Williams (Padres), Bruce Chen (Orioles), Paul Wilson (Reds)*, Chan Ho Park (Padres)"

Wood, Mussina and Wright are good bets to be free agents. Overall, that market has enough good starters to make the market reasonable and give the Royals a much better chance at signing a couple of good starters. Signing Byrd, Morris, or Rogers to a two-year deal with money (with money loaded on the first-year) would give the Royals the ability to sign a solid starters or two next year.

So, let's say the Royals sign Kenny Rogers to a 1-year, $6 million deal and Dessens to a 2-year, $4 million deal. That still leaves $17 million to spend. I've been contemplating one idea for a while:

Sign two corner outfielders: Reggie Sanders and Jeromy Burnitz. Sign Sanders to a two-year deal and Burnitz to a one-year deal. Both hit 20+ HRs last year and are solid defenders. Sanders adds some speed to the team (14 stolen bases in 15 attempts). With Sanders in left and Burnitz in right, the Royals' outfield defense would be much improved. The added offense would make having Andres Blanco at second or shortstop a tolerable solution (since it's what the Royals have their heart set on now). With Berroa at second and Blanco at short, the Royals' infield defense would be a lot better. With Blanco at 2nd and Berroa at short, the Royals' infield defense might be slightly improved. This also allows Butler, Lubanski and Gordon develop as outfielders until 2007, when they'll be ready.

These offseason is crucial for the Royals. Doing nothing to improve the team could lead to another 100-loss season and really hurt the Royals' fan base. The Royals, at the very least, must succeed in making this team respectable and show that the organization is heading in the right direction. A lineup with Sweeney, Sanders, Burnitz, Brown/Stairs, and DeJesus, with a few ABs from Huber, Gordon, and Butler, would be an improved offense. The improvements to the defense would help the pitching out.

Whither Matt Morris?

2005-11-17T21:14:00.000-05:00

I've been an advocate of the Royals making a big push to sign Matt Morris, but in the wake of reading several negative commentaries on Morris, I've decided to take a closer look at his pitching trends over the past 4 years. On the surface he looks fairly consistent, but when you dig a bit deeper there are some worries:


Year  H/9   K/9  K/BB  HR/9  VORP

2002  9.0   7.3  2.7   0.7   42.6
2003  8.6   6.3  3.1   1.0   33.1
2004  9.1   5.8  2.3   1.6   13.4
2005  9.7   5.5  3.2   1.0   18.9

The first thing you notice, of course, are his plummeting strikeout rates. Morris has gone from something of a power pitcher a few years ago to something quite less than that over the past two years. He was also more hittable in 2005 than he has ever been, giving up slightly more than a hit per inning. On the other hand, his 2005 K/BB rate was his best ever, walking a career-low 37 batters, and he brought his home run back under control after a terrible home runs allowed string in 2004. He has reasonably decent tendencies as groundball pitcher (1.6 G/F in 2005) which do not appear to be in decline.

My general impression is that Morris spent the better part of 2004 and 2005 both rehabbing from shoulder surgery and reinventing himself as a finesse pitcher, hitting his nadir in 2004 but finding himself a bit again in 2005 (though he faded down the stretch).

There are two ways to go with this:

1) If his improved (and superb) control rate is for real and he's remaking himself into a precision control pitcher in the mold of guy who's entering the second year of a 2 year, $18 million contract:

201.2 IP, 214H, 33HR, 23BB, 117K, 1.18 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 5.1 BB/K, 1.1 G/F

If Matt Morris can achieve a similar type of control rate as Brad Radke, then I'd feel much better about his chances of success in the hitter-heavy American League.

2) If his 2005 walk rates were an aberration, however, and he reverts to his historical norms, then I'm afraid he'd be in for a rude awakening pitching in front of the abominable Royals' defense (which is going to be a problem either way for a pitcher who is going to be overly reliant upon his defense to record outs).

I've been hearing Morris contracts in the range of 3 years, $15 to $18 million, which is far higher than the 3 year, $29 million contract I estimated a couple of months ago. Given the woeful state of the Royals' staff, I'd still be willing to take my chances on any 3 year contract worth $20 million or less. This team needs a veteran anchor who is named something other than Jose Lima in the worst possible way. Someone is going to overpay for A.J. Burnett, someone is going to overpay for Jarrod Washburn, so the Royals may as well overpay for Morris, but at least at a slightly lower rate.

But I'm taking the $29 million off the table.

Free Agency Redux

2005-11-16T00:00:00.000-05:00

I've read and listened to some rumblings that all of this emphasis on signing free agents this offseason is misplaced, because all it is going to accomplish is push the Royals from 56 to 66 wins.

But I don't look at it that way, for a couple of reasons.

-- First, the idea that the payroll is being "increased" is an inappropriate label. As a result of expiring contracts, without any changes to the roster the Royals would enter 2006 with a payroll of about $28 million, which is far less than what should be a minimally acceptable standard for any major league baseball team. In 2006, every team should have a payroll north of $45 million at the very least. This doesn't qualify as a spending spree; it just brings the Royals into the higher end of the bottom tier.

-- When it comes to major league payroll, the Royals are in a tough position from a public relations standpoint. Although I have yet to see a convincing functional argument that making bad free agent signings now will be detrimental to the Royals' development in future years, I don't think the Royals can afford to suffer through another series of high profile free agent failures. Combine the Royals' limited resources with a relatively weak free agent class, and the conditions are ripe for the Royals to acquire some major free agent busts. If the Royals spend $20 to $25 million on free agents and still lose 100 games next year, there's a chance they might lose a significant portion of their fan base forever, not to mention damage public support for financing a renovated Kauffman or new downtown stadium.

On the other hand, in the wake of 3 100-loss seasons in the past 4 years, the team simply must signal to their casual fan base that they are making a committment to avoid being a complete embarrassment to themselves and the city. David Glass has already made a public commitment in this vein, and its the right thing to do regardless of the risk of failure. The conventional wisdom suggests that losing is always losing, whether a team finishes 72-90 or 56-106. In baseball terms, no doubt, but in public relations and fan base terms, I don't think so. There is vast difference between a 106-loss team and a 90-win team in the eyes of the casual (or even hardcore) fan. The progression of a team from embarrassing to competitive, and from unwatchable to occasionally fun to watch, gives the impression of progress, which is important. Losing 100+ games every season is complete public relations disaster; losing 90 to 95 games is less of a disaster and gives fans much needed hope, which is sorely lacking these days.

Anyone who follows the Royals understands that until the basic economic structure of the game changes, the Royals' future is going to be completely dependent upon drafting and developing their own quality major league players. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and perhaps Andrew Miller next year are 3 steps in that direction. But until the day comes when the minor system is overflowing with talent, polished young players, the Royals can't afford to sit back and count on losing 100 games every season without fail. They have to try to compete, even if there's a risk they'll fail in the process.

Royals' offseason dealings commence

2005-11-11T23:19:00.000-05:00

The Royals are in on everyone, at least according to Allard. As long as that excludes Jose Lima, that's great news. Unlike last year, the Royals are frequently mentioned in rumors other than the Sweeney-to-the-Angels deal. Today's Kansas City Star Article basically said that the Royals have already been rejected by top free agents Rafael Furcal, Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn and Kenny Rogers. Not really surprising.

Here's who Baird has met with already: Bret Boone, Jeromy Burnitz, Elmer Dessens, Brian Giles and Mark Grudzelanik

Other players the Royals have shown interest in: Jacque Jones, Reggie Sanders, Paul Byrd, Tony Graffanino

Here's the latest on some free agents the Royals are or might be targeting:

Starters:

Estaben Loaiza: Negotiations with the Nationals aren't going well, so he's probably going to be on the open market. He's reportedly asking for $21 million over 3 years. The Royals have been mentioned as one of the teams interested in Loaiza.

Matt Morris: Seattle and Colorado have expressed interest in Morris. No indication that the Royals are interested.

Paul Byrd: Byrd sounds like he wants to resign with the Angels and would do so for less money. The Royals have some interest here, but would probably have to make an outlandish offer to get him.

Ted Lilly: Lilly is flying under the radar so far. Even with a 5.56 ERA last year, Lilly was still better than most of the Royals' rotation. That was Lilly's worst performace in 5 years. In 2003 and 2004, Lilly averaged a 4.18 ERA with 158 K's per year.

Jason Johnson/Byung-Hyun Kim/Jose Lima: I'll be a bit surprised if one of these starters isn't in our rotation next year.

Corner Outfielders:

Brian Giles: Lots of teams interested and will probably push bidding out of the Royals' range.

Jeremy Burnitz: Probably not one of the favorites for most fans, but Burnitz is probably the most likely to sign a one-year deal. He put up pretty good numbers last year (31 doubles, 24 HRs) and is still an above-average defender in RF (7 FRAA) and a huge improvement over Brown. He lets the Royals move Brown to left and gives the Royals flexibility for the future. Giving long-term deals to Giles or Jones just doesn't make sense with Butler and Gordon not far away.

Second Basemen:

The middle infielder market is pretty poor, with Furcal at the top followed by nothing. After Furcal, the best second base options are Grudzelanik and Graffanino. There are several non-tender possibilities and the Royals are seeking second basemen through trade avenues as well.

This offseason is very important to the future of the Royals. If the Royals spend $25 million on long-term contracts that turn out badly, then the Royals ability to improve the team down the road is severely hindered.

AFL Content on Royals Corner

2005-11-06T18:30:00.000-05:00

If you haven't already, head over to Royals Corner and check out the Arizona Fall League coverage. Dave has some excellent photo and video of Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Matt Tupman and the rest of the crew. It's truly premium, original content that he's giving away for free.

Hat's off, Dave, for all the good stuff you're providing to Royals fans everywhere.

Alex Gordon's excellent AFL performance (great discipline, contact and power) is something to behold.

Rebuilding the Royals

2005-11-04T21:40:00.000-05:00

After a 106-loss season, the Royals clearly have some rebuilding to do. The Royals have some talent that could be a start to building a contender. But, how well the Royals develop and use that talent will determine whether or not this team becomes a contender. Here's what the Royals must do to rebuild their franchise:

1. Find a quality GM and support staff: Barring a miracle (.500 season), Baird will probably not be retained after this season, according to Mr. Glass. Whether or not Baird is capable of handling the following to-do list is probably a moot point. He was given the task of rebuilding the franchise 5 years ago and has made little progress. The Royals need to implement a system that can develop starting pitching, produce above-average drafts, and make good moves to improve the team.

2. Fix the pitching woes: The Royals have some pitching talent on the big league roster. The Royals had 5 pitchers in the pen who could throw 95+ mph. Burgos, Sisco, Nunez, MacDougal, Greinke, and Bautista give the Royals six very good arms that they control for the next 3-6 years. The Royals could have an outstanding bullpen, but only if they can get consistent production from their relievers. That has been a problem with the Royals' last round of bullpen talent (Affeldt and MacDougal).

The Royals biggest problem is the starting rotation. Even if the Royals listen to the fans' wishes and sign Morris and Loaiza, the best we can hope for is that they pitch like No. 2 and 3 starters for the next 2 or 3 years. However, most of the FA starters are past their prime and probably won't continue to perform at their current levels. The Royals must develop their own starting pitching. The Royals' inability to develop starting pitching has been a problem for 10 years and there are no signs of any progress, unless you count Zack Greinke's team-leading 5.80 ERA (from kcroyals.com). The Royals must fix this problem, otherwise a .500 team becomes a best-case scenario.

3. Make the most of this offseason: The Royals have $25 million to spend this offseason. That's enough money to get some quality help and improve the team's weaknesses. But, it's also enough money to impede the progress of the franchise if the Royals spend the money poorly.

4. Two more Mike Sweeneys: Out of Justin Huber, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler, the Royals need 2 more Mike Sweeney-type bats to solidify the middle of the order. The Royals have enough depth and talent in the farm system to fill the rest of the lineup with solid players, but the Royals need a couple of bats to put them over the top.

5. Get more pitching out of the drafts: The Royals have done a good job of drafting position players. But, the Royals need to get more pitching talent into the farm system, which has one good pitching prospect at the moment. With the first-pick overall next year, the Royals should have their choice of top college starters.

Welcome, Friend

2005-11-02T16:30:00.000-05:00

Baseball Insights, a blog in existence for all of 6 days, is setup as a clearinghouse for all kinds of stories on teams throughout the league and baseball in general. Seems to me this kind of service is pretty labor intensive (read: I'd get sick of doing this eventually), but if Mike A. can keep it up he'll be providing a valuable service to people who like to follow the goings on with other teams but don't want to chase stories from every damn local newspaper. I like what I see thus far, and I appreciate the link.

As always, godspeed.

Shockwaves...

2005-10-31T10:30:00.000-05:00

... throughout the analytical community as the Paul DePodesta project is ended after just 2 years. Reaction here, here and comprehensive coverage at 6-4-2.

Among the disenchanted, there are dire warnings of where the Dodgers are headed: if [INSERT TEAM HERE] continues down this path, they will end up at the bottom of the sea like the Kansas City Royals:

"If, with every hurdle that comes, McCourt is going to fire somebody, that increases the chances he'll turn the team into the Royals, a team that is constantly starting over and repairing mistakes," said Jon Weisman, proprietor of the independent website http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/. The Kansas City Royals, another once-proud franchise, lost 106 games last season. They have not appeared in the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985.

I disagree. No matter how bad things might look bad right now in Los Angeles, they are in no danger of falling to our depths. Frank McCourt, at least, runs his team with a sense of urgency, misplaced or not, while David Glass is swattin' flies and sippin' Country Time on his front porch. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' system is loaded, while the Royals are counting on Luis Cota to solve their pitching problems.

The Dodgers do not know of despair.

UPDATE: Now comes word that Theo Epstein will not return to the Boston Red Sox next season. How can the Royals afford to sit on their hands right now, knowing that two of the brightest young baseball minds are on the market now, and that there's a 95% chance they're going to fire Allard Baird at the end of next season anyway?

2005 Player Retrospective: David DeJesus

2005-10-28T12:07:00.000-04:00

Throughout the long, cold winter I'll be posting the occasional 2005 player retrospective to keep myself connected to the Royals and their players. Let me know if there is anything missing from these retrospectives that you'd like to see, and of course I always love to read your comments and opinions.

Let's start with...

David DeJesus

Key Statistics

Batting Line: .289/.359/.445

Overall Offensive Production
VORP: 31.5 (4th in AL among CFs)
EqA: .289 (3rd in AL among CFs)

Fielding Skill
Fielding Runs Above Average, 2005: 1
Errors: 4

Baserunning
SB: 8 for 19 (42%)

Durability
Games Missed: 40

Evaluation

Batting: DeJesus had a fine second season at the plate, improving steadily over his 2004 performance and avoiding the sophomore slump. His equivalent average improved from a pedestrian .253 in 2004 to a robust .289 in 2005, which was behind only Johnny Damon and Grady Sizemore in the American League. DeJesus on-base rate was practically unchanged from 2004: .360 in 2004, .359 in 2005, but I wouldn't consider that a disappointment in his second season. That proves to me that the man can still hold his own against major league pitching even though "the book" is out on him. DeJesus primary improvement was in terms of his power, though he is hardly a power threat: 15 home runs at his physical peak is probably his upper limit. As long as DeJesus maintains his patient, studious approach at the plate, eventually achieves close to parity with his walks and strikeouts and bangs out 40 doubles every year in spacious Kauffman Stadium, he'll set the table just fine as either a #1 or #2 spot player.

Fielding: Most every team believes their center fielder is spectacular and among the league's best. I don't think DeJesus is a great fielder, but merely adequate. According to BP's fielding runs metrics, DeJesus was about an average center fielder this year, scoring 1 fielding run above average (FRAA). There are certainly better defensive center fielders in this game, but DeJesus is one of the better defensive center fielders who can also hit: Grady Sizemore and Johnny Damon, the two CFs who bested DeJesus offensively this past season, were a -8 and -6 FRAA respectively. As long as DeJesus isn't giving teams too many extra outs with his fielding, I'll be satisfied since I'm pretty sure he's going to hit well. Some have suggested moving DeJesus to left field to make room for a speedy, base-stealing minded gnat in CF, but that seems unwarranted to me and is effectively irrelevant since the Royals have no such players in the system right now.

Baserunning: Buddy Bell's arrival in Kansas City mercifully marked the end of David's attempted stolen base days. Despite having good speed playing the outfield and on the basepaths, he's just not a good basestealer. Its a bit odd to have a fairly speedy centerfielder/leadoff hitter who can't steal bases worth a lick, which I'm sure explains Tony Pena's cognitive dissonance on the matter. I don't have a very good feel for DeJesus baserunning skills besides stolen bases; my impression is that he has at least adequate basepath smarts, but I'm happy to be corrected if someone else has a different take.

Durability: DeJesus missed 40 games this season, most of which were caused by the spectacular diving catch he made against the Yankees in August. Despite the nature in which DeJesus was injured and missed most of his games, points must be deduced for missing nearly 25% of the season due to injury. Durability was a question that dogged DeJesus throughout his minor league career, and while I'm certainly willing to dismiss this incident as a freak injury on a hustle play, we're going to have to keep our eye on his future propensity for injury.

Outlook: David DeJesus is the Royals' best overall player right now (that includes you, Mike Sweeney), contributing with a strong offensive game and at least an adequate glove. He has all the makings of a Johnny Damon-like center fielder with solid on-base skills, a good glove and throwing arm, but without the ability to steal bases at a rate that is worthwhile. Missing 40 games hurts a team like the Royals, though, and I'll continue to have minor concerns about DeJesus' durability until I see him play a 150 game season.

He'll be a fixture in the Royals lineup for at least the next 4 years, and he strikes me as the kind of players will have to serious consider signing to a longer-term contract once he hits arbitration to buy out at least 1 if not 2 of his free agency years (when he'll be 30 and 31). After that, he's free to go to another team who will gladly overpay for declining value as he hits the wrong side of 30.

An Insider's Perspective on Bobby Madritsch

2005-10-26T22:39:00.000-04:00

Here's an email I received from a close friend of recent Royals pickup Bobby Madritsch (posted by permission):

Bobby and I are very close, it is a friendship that started when my brother
was his catcher in Winnipeg and then he became my roommate in Midland, TX the
next year after he played in San Antonio, and now we see each other anytime the
chance arrises. To make a long story short, not many people know B-Mad like me
and I can say this thing is for sure, If anyone can come back from another tear
in their labrum it is going to be Bob. Like he said in a previous interview, he
will do whatever it takes to get back to the top of his game because he
literally almost has nothing else to live for. I mean I have spent hours on the
phone with him in the past couple of months and he is as determined as ever (and
that is pretty determined considering what he has already done) to get back and
prove he belongs up with the best in the league, because as everyone has seen
when he is healthy he is legit. I know this is for sure and you can mark it on
your calendars KC, Bobby will have another tat by the time you see him in the
spring and it may just be all the motivation he needs to be back in the leagues
dominating like he can.

Thanks to this person for sending this personal and compelling message about Bobby.

Who knows what will happen in the end with Bobby Madritsch, but it sure sounds like he'll do whatever it takes to become an effective major league pitcher, and I'm glad he's on the Royals roster. If nothing else, maybe he can teach a thing or two about heart and desire to "What, Me Worry?" Zack Greinke.

Arizona Fall League Update

2005-10-25T02:20:00.000-04:00

The Surprise Scorpions are having an excellent campaign, posting a 10-6 record. Several Royals on the team have done well so far:

Billy Butler: Butler continues to hit advanced pitching well. He has a .907 OPS after 51 ABs and has a good OBP of .368. Butler's season has been quite remarkable considering he's just 19 years old. It'll be tough for the Royals to keep him out of the lineup next year. He'll be a DH pretty soon, as I can't imagine his defense being much better than Matt Stairs in the outfield. Butler has 2 errors in 16 games.

Alex Gordon: Gordon has gotten off to a slow start, with a .182/.357/.273 line. So far, it appears that Gordon is everything he was advertised to be. But, we'll have to wait until next season to find that out for sure.

Matt Tupman: Tupman's performance has been pretty good, hitting .291/.321/.407 in 27 ABs, including a HR. Tupman will challenge Phillips for a spot as the team's backup catcher next season.

Brian Bass: Bass has pitched very well after 3 starts, allowing no runs in 12 innings. He's only struck out 4 in 12 innings, but walked 0. His WHIP is a mensicule 0.33. Bass pitched well in the AFL last year, so I wouldn't read into his performance too much. But, it is nice to have a fringe pitching prospect doing well.

Chris DeMaria: DeMaria got hammered pretty good today, allowing 4 runs in 1 1/3 innings. The Royals probably can find a better pitcher to put on the 40-man roster.

Jonah Bayliss: Bayliss has pitched pretty well. He has a 4.91 ERA in 11 IP with 12 strikeouts and just 3 walks.