Sunday, March 04, 2007

First Spring Training Games

Breaking News: Mark Grudzielanek will undergo knee surgery on Monday. There is no timetable for his return, but it is certainly weakens the Royals' defense up the middle until he returns. German will likely become the regular second basemen until he returns. German had an outstanding season for the Royals last year, hitting .326/.422/.459. So, he may be an upgrade offensively over Grudzielanek.

Spring Training games are finally underway and we've gotten a look at some of the Royals' new acquistions.

Game 1: Brian Bannister started for the Royals, pitching very well. Bannister went 2 innings, allowing 0 runs and throwing just 17 pitches (14 strikes). Bannister could be a nice find for the Royals. At the very least, it'll be nice to have someone in the rotation who can throw strikes. Joakim Soria's pitched two scoreless innings. A very good start for the Royals' young pitchers. The other big story was Billy Butler, who hit a 2-run single to put the Royals ahead 6-4. The Royals lost 7-6.

Game 2: Meche pitched well in his Royals' debut, pitching 3 scoreless innings and allowing just 2 hits. Gobble ended up with the victory, even though he allowed 2 runs in 2 innings. Butler continues to hit extremely well. He's 4 for 7 with a double and 2 RBIs so far. Shealy went 1 for 3 with a homerun and 3 RBIs. Huber later took over at first, going 0 for 1. Gordon went 0 for 4, making him 0 for 6 so far.

Game 3: Teahen and Buck homered for the Royals. Huber continues to play 1B, but struggled at the plate going 0 for 3. Perez pitched horribly, going 1 1/3 innings and allowing 4 runs. Perez was worth a shot, but I hope the Royals don't keep him around too long if he doesn't pitch better.

"B" game: Hochevar pitched in Friday's "B" game, throwing 2 scoreless innings. Rosa also pitched a scoreless inning and Buddy Bell was impressed with his stuff.

Sunday's game so far: Luke Hudson had a pretty good start for the Royals, going 3 innings and allowing just 1 run. Zack Greinke has pitched a scoreless innings so far. Alex Gordon got his first hit of the season, the only hit through the fourth inning.

Positives so far: The young players are doing very well. Butler, Shealy, Teahen and Buck have provided most of the Royals' offense. The Royals' young offensive talent is finally starting to show, which should make this season more exciting to watch.

Negatives so far: Perez looks like the Perez from 2006. Also, losing Grudz for an extended period of time is a blow to our defense up the middle, which already has a giant hole at shortstop.

Minor League News: Jeff Bianchi is healthy again. He will likely head to extended spring training and move to Burlington. The Royals' article also says he's throwing from the shortstop position (maybe insinuating a move to short?). Erik Cordier, who had a brillant season until getting hurt, will not pitch until the fall instructional leagues. Cordier may have the most upside of any Royals' pitcher next to Hochevar.

Saturday, March 03, 2007

College Prospect Update: James Simmons

I watched the University of Oklahoma play UC Riverside this afternoon and got a first-hand look at RHP James Simmons. Several scouts were on hand (including a Royals' scout) to watch Simmons and Sooner starter Stephen Porlier (more on him in another post). Here's a brief bio of James Simmons:

Simmons is a junior at UC Riverside. He is a 6'4", 215 lbs right-handed pitcher. Last season, he led the team with a 2.96 ERA and led the team with 94 strikeouts in 109 1/3 innings. Simmons pitched in the Cape Cod League last summer and had a 1.18 ERA in 53 innings. Baseball America listed him as the eighth-best prospect in the Cape Cod League.

Projected Draft Position:
Simmons is currently listed on Baseball America's Top 100 collegiate prospects for the 2007 draft. Brewerfan.net currently has Simmons listed as the #59 prospect in the country, which would make him an early to mid second round. If he continues performing well, he probably won't be around when the Royals make their selection with the #65 overall pick in the 2nd round. But, he's worth keeping an eye on.

2007 Stats:

4-1 2.38 ERA 34 IP 38 SOs 8 BBs .185 BAA

Simmons is off to a good start for 2007. Simmons is a candidate for the Roger Clemens' Award for the top collegiate pitcher. Before Simmon's start today, he was 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA. However, he struggled against the Sooner offense, allowing 9 hits on 7 runs in 5 innings.

Scouting Report: Simmons strongest asset is his control, which was fairly absent today. In addition to his two walks, Simmons hit two batters today. So, his performance today probably isn't the best for evaluating him. Simmons displayed an average (cut) fastball sitting at 89-90 mph. His second main pitch was his changeup, which wasn't very effective in keeping the Sooner hitters off-balance.

Simmons has a very high leg kick (see photo at start of post), but does a very good job of maintaining balance over his right leg during his delivery. He has a very clean, repeatable delivery overall and fields his position well.

Here's a short video clip of Simmons: Simmons Video

Summary: Simmons has pretty average stuff, but has plus command of his repertoire. He has a projectable frame at 6'4", 215 lbs, so he may end up throwing harder than 90 mph. If he's available when the Royals make their second-round selection, he would be a good pickup.

Coming up: Wichita State Prospects

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Coming Soon!

I will have an in-depth look at 3 of Baseball America's top 100 college draft prospects. This will be the beginning of draft coverage from the Daily Lancer featuring college player previews with photos and maybe some videos.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Royals Ink Gobble and Brown

The Royals avoided arbitration with Emil Brown and Jimmy Gobble, signing both to 1-year contracts. Gobble signed for $712,500. Gobble had a good year in the pen last year, striking out 80 in 84 innings. Certainly a good sign for a pitcher who used to strike out one batter every 3 innings. Gobble's stuff is probably best suited for the bullpen, especially since his fastball can reach 94 mph more regularly. He can also spot start and did a decent job last year (5.14 ERA as starter).

The Royals signed Emil Brown to a one-year, $3.4 million deal. Brown has been one of the Royals' most productive bats over the past two seasons, leading the team in RBI's over that period. With Brown and Sanders under contract, the Royals will have plenty of time to let Teahen transition to the outfield and give Gordon as much time as needed in the minors.

The Royals also signed Alex Gonzalez to a minor-league contract. He was downright awful for the Devil Rays last year, hitting .111/.158/.111 in 36 ABs. His career line of .243/.302/.391 isn't anything to brag about, but he is a good backup shortstop.

The Royals are still negotiating with Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer has good stuff, but his even K/BB ratio is certainly a concern for next year. He may have trouble repeating a pretty good season last year if he can't improve his command. Nonetheless, he's a cheap, young reliever, so he's worth re-signing.

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Minor League Chat

meteorologistdave: The Royals seem to have set the main positions in the roster for 2007. The Royals could still use another veteran starter or reliever to add some depth. But, for the most part, the 2007 Royals are ready to go. And of course, if someone will take Angel Berroa, then by all means take him!

garoyal23: What I'd like to see the Royals do between now and Opening Day is to trade from our position of strength (outfielders) to land some more pitching depth. It doesn't matter to me if that depth is at the major league level or a legit minor leaguer. We just need depth. Like you say, Angel Berroa is a huge question mark. His numbers have been declining every year, but his defense seems to be improving. I'm comfortable giving him another year to see what happens with him. If he declines for the 4th straight year, then cut your losses. However, if he manages a .270 average with an OPS of around .670 to .700, then that will satisfy me. That being said, I'd like to see Moore sign a veteran middle infielder that could possible slide into the SS role if Berroa fails. Someone to push him.

meteorologistdave: Using their outfield depth to acquire more pitching or a shortstop would be a welcome move. Speaking of the Royals' tremendous depth at the corners, let's get started with Alex Gordon. If you put Gordon in the lineup now, he's probably going to be the best hitter in the lineup, even as a rookie. However, that could be detrimental to his development. I think he could use at least a couple months at AAA before he becomes the Royals' everyday third basemen.

garoyal23: I haven't seen anything that makes me think that Gordon will be a liability at third base defensively. I am leaning toward having him start in out in KC in 2007. That makes the lineup stronger instantly. I'm not sure where he'd start out in the lineup (I'm guessing 6th), but he'd definitely make the lineup stronger. Teahen was rushed to the majors, in large part to Chris Truby's spring training injury, and he struggled in his first full season. I really don't see that going on with Gordon. He put up fantastic numbers last year in AA. He's more of a hitter than Teahen at AA. If he starts in KC, he'd do fine with the bat and fine with the glove.

meteorologistdave: I think Gordon is talented enough to do very well in the majors right away, I just think it would be beneficial to give him a little more experience. Gordon's draft counterpart Ryan Zimmerman has already logged 672 ABs, so I'm guessing Gordon is probably ready. I just tend to be cautious, especially considering how important his development is to the future of the franchise. The next most likely prospect to make the team, Billy Butler?

garoyal23: In my mind, the thing that will keep Butler from making the team will be his defense. He was drafted as a 3B. He was then moved to 1B. Then moved to the OF. From what I've seen, he isn't doing all that badly defensively, but he would surely benefit from spending 2007 (or the greater part of it) in AAA working on his defense. I think the Omaha OF will be Lubanski in left, Maier in center and Butler in right. Huber will get the majority of his ABs (if he's not traded) from the DH spot in the order, but he's likely to play the field as well, so he's not viewed as one dimensional when Moore is shopping him.

meteorologistdave: That's pretty much what I was thinking when I asked the question. This season will tell us a lot about the future positions of Butler and Huber. My guess is that one of the two will become the Royals' left fielder (probably Butler) and the other will see time at DH. Of course, then there's talk about Huber moving back to catcher. So, his future is really up in the air. Butler is young enough I think he can become a passable left fielder. So, with Butler/Huber in left field and Teahen in right, how does that bode for the future of Lubanski, Maier, Costa, and the Royals' other outfield prospects?

garoyal23: DeJesus is under contract through the 2010 season (there's a team option for 2011), so he's going to be a fixture in center field for a long time. Well past the time that the Royals will have to make a decision on the futures of those you mentioned. I've seen that Maier has drawn some interest from other clubs and could eventually be traded. I'm sure that Costa is one that other teams would be interested in as well. I'd like to keep Lubanski in the organization, though. He is a young kid and has reached the AAA level. Both Lubanski and Maier were drafted in '03, so they could stay in the Royals minor leagues through the 2008 season. At that time, Lubanski would be only 23 and Maier would be 26. Shane Costa (also drafted in 2003) would be turning 27 after the 2008 season.

meteorologistdave: Lubanski would be a good prospsect to keep around considering his upside. He's just a year older than Butler and he's held his own offensively over the past two seasons. Maier could also be useful as a fourth outfielder with his versatility (he can play all the outfield positions). The outfield situation looks pretty good and the Royals have plenty of options and time to make these decisions with Sanders and probably Brown in the outfield this season. The Royals seem set everywhere except the middle infield positions. German's defense will have to improve before he becomes an everyday second basemen. Are there any middle infield prospects who seem like they could be the second basemen or shortstop of the future? Outside of Jeff Bianchi, who can't get out of rookie ball, I can't think of any who stand out.

garoyal23: I can't either. There's Sanchez and Blanco in the upper minors. Sanchez has the glove for SS (Blanco, too, for that matter) but I don't think either will put up the offensive numbers that you like to see out of your SS. Sanchez is going to need a full season at AAA and then we'll have to see what happens after that. We are set at 2B this season with Grudzielanek and probably 2008, as he has a player option for '08 ($4.0 to $4.5 million). I've read that Bianchi profiles out better as a 2B, rather than SS (I guess it has to do with his range). So, the way it looks, we've got no one to look to as our SS of the future. We used to think we were set at 2B for the future with Gotay and Murphy in the system, but they are both gone and all we got was Jeff Keppinger (who was recently DFA'd).

meteorologistdave: The middle infield looks pretty bare, so it'll be interesting to see what Moore can do to fix that. Next time we'll discuss the Royals' pitching and catching prospects. I guess that will mainly be a discussion about the Royals’ pitching prospects since there aren’t really any catching prospects to discuss.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Did the Royals really overpay Meche?

Barry Zito signed a 7-year, $126 million deal with the Giants yesterday, continuing the trend of overpriced starting pitching. The two top starters in the free agent market pulled over $15 million a year. But, they are clearly the two best starters available and will fill the ace role nicely for any team willing to spend the money.

Here's a list of the contracts given to the top free agent starters this offseason. The dashed line separates the two tiers of starters.

Ranked in terms of cost:
1. Barry Zito, 28 (7 years at $18 million/yr, total: $126 million)
2. Jason Schmidt, 33 (3 years at $15.7 million/yr, total $47 million)
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3. Gil Meche, 28 (5 years at $11 million/yr, total: $55 million)
4. Jeff Suppan, 31 (4 years at $10.5 million/yr, total: $42 million)
5. Ted Lilly, 30 (4 years at $10 million/yr, total: $40 million)
6. Miguel Bautista, 35 (3 years at $8.33 million/yr, total: $25 million)
7. Adam Eaton, 29 (3 years at $8.17 million/yr, total $24.5 million)

Meche was the most expensive pitcher out of the second-tier of starters in terms of contract length and cost per year. Was this justified by his market value or did the Royals overpay?

Justified:

Meche is the youngest of the free agent starters listed above. That certainly increases his market value. Meche also has the most upside of the second-tier starters, although Eaton is close. Eaton had a poor year which hurt his market value considerably. Suppan and Bautista are considerably older and are league-average starters, so there's no upside there. In terms of upside, age, and recent performance, Meche is the best available pitcher.

Overpaid:

The main downside to Meche is his past injury problems. Giving a 5-year contract to an injury prone player is certainly risky business. Meche also struggled in 2004 and 2005, most likely because of injury problems. He had a good season last year, with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.86 K/BB. Will his success continue or was it just an anomaly?

Conclusion: The Royals signed Meche for a deal that was reasonable for the market.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Daily Lancer Discussion: Offseason Moves

Now that we have Darren's thoughts on the offseason moves thus far, georgiaroyal and I decided to have a discussion about the Royals' offseason moves:

georgiaroyal: I suppose we've got to begin with the job that Moore is doing in his first offseason as the Royals GM. What I really appreciate, as a fan, is action on his part. Some may quibble about the money that's been spent and so on, but staying with what we had just wasn't a viable option.

soonerroyal: I certainly agree with that. Although the Meche deal seems well to be extremely expensive, he is immediately better than anyone on the staff for the past several years. He's also made some major changes to the bullpen. It seems as though Dayton Moore is moving away from the young power arms and relying on veteran relievers.

georgiaroyal: Meche is getting $7 million in '07 and then it jumps to $11 million in '08-'09 and then $12 million in '10 and '11. Sweeney's contract coming off of the books after this season helps us afford him, and I'd rather have money wrapped up in a pitcher than a position player, anyway. I like what's being done in the pen. We need guys that can come in and throw strikes. How frustrating has it been to watch a guy trot in from the pen and struggle with the zone?

soonerroyal: That's a very good point. And it seems like the Royals are gravitating toward strike throwers and getting rid of the guys who have no clue where the strikezone is (Burgos, Sisco). However, it still hurts to see great young arms leave the team, especially when they cost so little. But, this team needs a change. The major league team is getting the overhaul it needs to become a functional unit again. Allard's teams placed the burden mainly on the youngsters. But, it looks like Dayton is going to place the burden on veterans and once the young players are ready to contribute, then everything should come together.

georgiaroyal: That is very much the way it has worked for the Braves over the past 15 years. Now, instead of being forced to put guys like Greinke in the rotation, we can leave them in the minors until they are absolutely ready. Dayton's money is being spent on different types of players than Baird when he had a little to play with. I'm less concerned signing guys like Meche, Dotel, Bale, and Riske than when Baird brought in Santiago and Juan Gonzalez. The reward is much more likely than with those types of guys.

soonerroyal: I really like the potential reward from the Meche deal. He's entering the prime of his career and he's coming off a strong season when he was healthy for the first time. Dotel is a very good closer if he's healthy and is only 33. Those are certainly good gambles. Gonzalez and Santiago, as you mentioned, were well past their prime and had more risk than reward.

soonerroyal: Moving on to the Royals’ recent trades, the Sisco for Gload trade still strikes me as rather odd. The Royals gave up a very talented lefty for a reserve first basemen/outfielder. I'm still having trouble justifying this deal, although Gload will be a useful player certainly. He gets on base at a decent clip and has modest power. But, giving up a young power arm seems pretty risky. It's the type of move a contender would make to complete their team, but not a team that needs to build a core of talented players.
georgiaroyal: At the risk of sounding like a Moore-lover (maybe I am...a little), I do like the acqusition of Gload. He gives Shealy a backup at 1B as well as a guy that can play a corner OF position. This makes Sanders and Brown even more expendible than they already are. Our list of guys that can play the outfield in KC next year is: Teahen, DeJesus, Gathright, Brown, Sanders, Costa, Gload, and possibly Maier, Huber, and Butler. Wow. That sure is a long list, but the primary reason for getting him was to have competition for Shealy. He'll be a good guy to have around for that. I agree about giving up Sisco, though. It is risky, but I don't think that one will come back to bite us. I really don't. The league adjusted to him and he had nothing else to go to.

georgiaroyal: Sisco averaged 5.02 BB/9 innings in his rookie year (his good year). Last year, that number jumped to 6.17 BB/9 innings. That isn't what you want coming out of the pen.

soonerroyal: Sisco certainly has a lot of development left. He's going to have to learn another pitch and improve his command. If he does (probably a big IF), he could be a top setup man or closer. But, Gload will ensure Sweeney never takes the field and give the Royals options at the outfield spots. I just think that with all of the outfield options the Royals have, signing someone like Mientkiewicz could have accomplished the same thing without giving up a young arm. But, it's not a terrible move. What are your thoughts on the Jason LaRue acquistion?

georgiaroyal: That's true. It's not terrible, but it would have been nice to send Sisco to the minors for a year or so and see what happens with him.

Getting LaRue was a deal that I didn't pay that much attention to. The Reds are paying half the '07 salary. He's a low average hitter with some pop in his bat. That sounds like a certain someone we know, doesn't it? Buck just hasn't put it together, yet, so getting LaRue will either push Buck to produce or it will prove him to be a solid part time/backup catcher. John isn't a young Buck (pun intended). I'm still holding out hope that he will have a breakout year and approach 18-20 HR and a .260 batting average. I think he's capable of those type of numbers. Hopefully, hearing LaRue's footsteps will inspire him to reach those numbers.

soonerroyal: Buck and LaRue are very similar. Their offensive numbers are very similar, their SB/CS ratio is very similar. He's basically an older version of Buck. So, hopefully the Royals just acquired him to bring in some competition in case Buck struggles. LaRue isn't a guy you want as your starting catcher. I think Buck has some upside as well. He's shown pretty good power at times, so maybe his bat is just taking a while to develop.

georgiaroyal: Buck will be turning 27 this season. He's approaching his prime, and I do expect him to put up some better offensive numbers in 2007.

georgiaroyal: Before the season starts, I'd still like to see some moves made, and I expect to see some action with all of our outfielders. Maybe we can use Brown/Sanders (or both) to acquire some more pitching depth or maybe a shortstop of the future to push Berroa. We are set at all of our infield positions. We are definitely set in the outfield, and catcher. If the Royals have some money and want to acquire another veteran starter, I don't think I'd have a problem with it. We don't have a lot of young guys knocking the door down, so let them continue to develop.

georgiaroyal: I'll admit that I'm always high on the number of wins I predict, but right now, this looks like a team that could win between 75-80 games.

soonerroyal: That pretty much echoes my sentiments. The Royals are pretty well set overall, but the more reliable veteran starters the team can get, the better. I'm certainly looking forward to the season and being able to watch a stable rotation for once. Hopefully it will put an end to all the random waiver wire starters the Royals have used over the past few seasons. I'm not quite as optimistic, but I think 70-75 games is pretty reasonable. If Butler and Gordon get up here quickly and make an impact right away, I could certainly see 75-80 games. On our next post, we'll have a discussion about any new Royals' moves as well as our thoughts about the Royals’ depth chart, particularly at the top.