Who's Next?

"Pick the right manager, and the Royals could thrive. Pick the wrong one, and they might as well put a down payment on last place."
-- Jeff Passan, Kansas City Star, 5/17/05

Let's make sure we understand one thing: this team will not thrive this season and probably will not thrive next season. No manager dead or alive could prevent this team from losing 100 games this season, and unless the Royals' offense breaks out in a seriously unexpected way next year I don't think they'll lose less than 90. I think the net impact of a manager on a team's performance is on the order of +/- 3 or 4 wins, which could be crucial for a team on the verge of contention but doesn't particularly matter for this team right now.

But it IS important that the Royals hire a good manager, if for no other reason than to signal to the public that they care about building a winning organization. PR wise, the last thing this team needs is to hire another greenhorn or "promoted-from-within" manager. The second-to-last thing the Royals need is to hire another in-game micromanager who is addicted to destructive intervention at every possible opportunity.

My problem is that I find it difficult to evaluate a manager's credentials. In journalistic circles, Joe Torre is hailed as a premier motivator, confidante, and overall managerial genius; in the performance analysis subculture, he's ridiculed for his poor roster and in-game management. The truth is probaby somewhere in between, but the fact is that he's been managing some extremely talented Yankee teams. That's not to say that anyone can do it, but it just makes things fuzzy. The evaluation process in basketball and football is simpler, I think, because its easier to decipher which are the good and bad coaches, for two reasons:

1) The team concept is much more important in those sports, so a coaching strategy and philosophy can make a big difference in team performance;

2) Every team operates under a salary cap, so there is a reasonably level playing field in terms of talent acquisition resources.

So how to decide on the Royals' next manager? Allard Baird is contacting a number of experienced candidates, but frankly I'm loathe to evaluate a manager on the basis of his record alone, since it is very much an artifact of the team he inherits -- Grady Little, for example, has a winning record in his managerial career but he managed a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball.

A more "objective" method would be to compare the actual vs. Pythagorean record over managerial careers to see if there is any kind of net effect of managerial (in)competence. I'd expect fluctuation from season to season based more on baseball metrics (for example, Tony Pena was Manager of the Year in 2003, but the real reason they won more than expected was that the Royals led the league in BA with RISP, which led to considerably more runs than expected). But over the course of several years you'd expect these performance fluctuations to smooth out and that the net +/- effect would be something closer to resulting from managerial skill. Batter's Box created conducted just such an analysis for managers beginning their careers from 1980 to 2003, and found this:

Cumulative Pythagorean +/-
Manager           Team(s)     Seasons      +/-

Bobby Valentine   Tex,NYM      13          +22
Dusty Baker       SF,ChC       11          +18
Felipe Alou       Mtl,SF       10          +13
Ron Gardenhire    Min           2          +13
Pete Rose         Cin           5          +12
Jim Frey          KC,ChC        3          +11
Mike Hargrove     Cle,Bal      12          +10
Art Howe          Hou,Oak,NYM  13          +10
Jim Tracy         LA            3           +9
Kevin Kennedy     Tex,Bos       4           +8

And the worst:

Manager           Team(s)      Seasons    +/-

Jimy Williams     Tor,Bos,Hou  10          -27
Jim Riggleman     SD,ChC        7          -23
Buddy Bell        Det,Col       5          -21
Larry Dierker     Hou           5          -16
Lee Elia          ChC,Phi       4          -16
Phil Garner       Mil,Det      10          -14
Doug Rader        Tex,Cal       5          -13
Bud Harrelson     NYM           2          -10
Gene LaMont       ChW,Pit       7          -10
Tom Trebelhorn    Mil,ChC       6          -9

(And what do you know: there's my guy, Bobby V., and the top of the list! Come on down, Bobby!)

What other criterion could we use? Experience probably matters, but it isn't a substitute for sound managerial strategies and tactics. I don't care that Jimy Williams and Larry Dierker are experienced; they've both demonstrated that their managerial acumen is poor and that their teams consistently underperform expectations.

The Next Big Thing in baseball management should be the development of a new SABR-oriented managerial class that embraces the translation of objective performance analysis into managerial strategy and tactics. Tony Pena claimed to be part of that revolution when he was hired by Allard Baird, but First-Inning Bunt Tony was eventually exposed for the unyielding traditionalist that he is. But unfortunately that day isn't here yet, so the Royals are going to have to settle for an experienced manager who demands the most from his players, protects his young pitcher's arms and understands the basic tactical nuances of the game, if not the most efficient path to run creation and prevention.

I'd love to see Bobby Valentine as the next manager of the Kansas City Royals.