Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Final Spring Training Thoughts From Across the Pond

Heading off to Contiental Europe for the next 5 weeks, so I won't be posting again until late April. So, here are my final thoughts on the Royals and Spring Training so far:

The Royals' rotation is business as usual, with the rotation already losing its two best starters. Hopefully, the Royals can manage to get their starters' ERA under 6 this year. The Royals will need Greinke to get back quickly and get decent performances from Elarton, Redman, and Mays. Affeldt and Bautista will likely grab a rotation spot and give the rotation some upside. But, I don't see either giving the Royals good starts on a regular basis. The Royals have some options for the rotation, so we shouldn't have to put up with a Lima-like performance this year. I'm going to be optimistic and say the rotation doesn't get worse than last year.

The Royals' bullpen could be one of the strengths of the team and is the most talented part of the team. If Sisco and Burgos can avoid sophomore slumps and make the necessary adjustments, then the back of the bullpen should be pretty good. MacDougal has settled into the closer's role, but his command still worries me. Wood, Peralta, Affeldt and Dessens will do a decent job in the middle innings. The bullpen was close to league-average last season and will probably be slightly above average this season. So, I'm going to say the bullpen's improvement adds 3 wins.

The Royals improved the right side of the infield with the additions of Mientkiewicz and Grudzielanek. Both are defensive improvements and Grudzielanek will improve the offensive production at second base. As long as Sweeney stays healthy, the Royals will get decent production out of the 1B/DH trio of Sweeney, Stairs, and Mientkiewicz. Teahen has shown signs of improvement in September and Spring Training, so he should get better. Berroa will still be a nuisance as usual. The free agent additions should improve the team and I'll say it adds 4 wins.

The Royals added Reggie Sanders to add a good bat behind Sweeney and improve the outfield defense. DeJesus and Sanders will give the Royals good offensive and defensive production if they can stay healthy. Whether Brown can repeat his 2005 performance or not will determine how much the outfield improves. Overall, I'll say the outfield improves, mainly because Terrence Long is gone, and adds 3 wins.

So, I expect the Royals to improve a total of 10 wins, a 66-96 record. If the young players improve more than expected and the Royals get league-average production out of 2 or 3 starters, the Royals might get to the 70-win mark. But, it looks like another last place finish for the Royals.

Finally, a look at the minors. The Royals will have a second wave of young players approaching the majors, arriving in 2007 and 2008. The AA lineup will be particularly impressive, featuring the Royals' top prospects. The middle of the Wranglers lineup featuring Gordon, Butler, and Lubanski, will be really fun to watch. The Royals have some depth building at AA and AAA, so there is some hope for the future for the offense.

The Royals have the ingredients to build an above-average offense and bullpen in the near future. The Royals still need a lot of help for the rotation. Until the rotation gets fixed, the Royals aren't going anywhere.


At 1:53 AM, Blogger royalsbeliever said...

Not very optimistic, huh?

At 4:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"the Royals aren't going anywhere."

Patently untrue. The Royals are going into the AL Central sub-basement. They're going to newfound depths of baseball suckitude. They're going where only the 1962 Mets have gone before.

At 11:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You said 'a look at the minors.' Isn't "The Daily Lancer" all about looking at a minor-league team?

At 10:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Put down the Royals all you want to, but when Scott Elarton and Joe Mays win 22 games each, and Emil Brown wins the MVP, the Royals will get the last laugh!

At 12:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone is off their crazy pills!

At 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No way Emil wins the MVP, they always want to give to some guy from New York. As for the pitchers, I'm thinking Jeremy Affeldt has a great shot at 20 wins this season. I'm not so sure about Elarton, and Mays just can't handle the kind of workload needed to be a 20-game winner. Tommy John surgery takes years to overcome.

Now, if Bell will just put Andrew Sisco in the closer role, we'll have our own version of Mariano Rivera, and Affeldt will be sure to win at least 20. Hitting-wise, expect Brown, Sweeney and Sanders to combine for 100 home runs, and for the Royals to win at least 95 games this season.


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