Now that we've all had time to read about and digest the Beltran deal...

On balance, I like it. All three of the prospects are legitimate major league candidates, and perhaps one of them (methinks Buck) has a chance to be a star player. I don't think the Royals could have done any better under the circumstances.

However, I'd like to compare this trade to the fantastic trade Seattle made today. The ChiSox gave up their best prospect (and one of the top 5 prospects in baseball), Jeremy Reed, and a young major league catcher (Olivo) for Freddy Garcia. Reed is a much, much better prospect than Teahan, and Olivo is probably at least equal to Buck. I don't know much about Wood and Morse, so we'll just call that a wash, and Ben Davis is a career backup catcher. Garcia is in his walk year, like Beltran, so they're both three month rentals.

Which player - Beltran or Garcia - woill have the most impact on making the playoffs over a 90 games stretch? Beltran and Garcia were the most coveted batter and pitcher in the trade market this year, and both play at premium positions (CF is crucial defensively). Statistically, Beltran is good for 6 win shares above average (WSAA) so far this year, compared to 2 for Garcia. Beltran has been the more consistent performer over the past few years, so his chance of maintaining performance is higher than Garcia's. Garcia has pitched well this year, but he's been pretty average and inconsistent for the past few years, and I wouldn't call him a sure thing to pick up several wins over the next three months.

I think you could make a strong case that adding Beltran to the Astros will be more valuable than adding Garcia to the White Sox for the rest of the season. If the ChiSox make the playoffs, Garcia will be more important than Beltran, because pitchers have a greater impact in the postseason. Overall, being conservative, its reasonable to say that Beltran will be at least as important to Houston's playoff chances than Garcia will be to the White Sox.

So why did Seattle make out so much better than the Royals? In the past, the answer would have been fairly easy - Allard Baird and Royals ownership have no idea what they're doing. But this time, I think the Royals/Astros/A's made a RATIONAL trade, while Chicago/Seattle made an IRRATIONAL trade, owning to the dynamics of the irrational player marketplace. The White Sox overpayed dearly for Garcia on paper, who is seriously overvalued because he's the only available above average pitcher in the trade market. But they may have felt they had no choice, given that other teams were probably willing to give up their top talent to land Garcia as well (but there are few prospects like Reed).

The market is what it is, but Chicago has rented a slightly above average pitcher for three months instead of enjoying a highly talented hitter anchor their outfield for the next seven years. The Royals gained three good prospects, but all have question marks. Its certainly possible (though not probable) that none of these players will turn out to be much. But its an acceptable risk.

I'm happy for the Royals, but the player marketplace is screwy: Seattle can trade a pitcher like Garcia for a Grade A prospect, while the Royals only get back B prospects for the one of the players in the game.

Affeldt has finally caught up with himself. He blew the lead today and was hit hard three times in three ABs at last count.

While there's no question that he's pitched better in relief than as a starter, he still hasn't pitched that well. He basically stuink as a starter, so even a mediocre performance as a reliever would like good in comparison.

Every time I've seen Affeldt pitch, I don't feel the lead is safe. He has poor control from pitch to pitch and he gets hit hard too often. His statistics as a reliever mask the fact that he's been lucky - lots of hard hit balls have been hit right at his fielders, and he's gotten out of many walk-induced jams with timely pitches. These things always even out in time, and if he keeps walking batters and getting hit hard, he's going to go through a long stretch of blown saves and won't remain the Royals closer for very long.

Unfortunately, he reminds me of Billy Koch - very talented, explosive velocity, little control. He's still young, unlike Koch, so he will have the opportunity to improve his control. But I have to say that I've watched him pitch for a year and a half now, and he really hasn't shown me that much. It can take three years for a pitcher to mature, so I'm not ready to pass judgment. But he's not most definitely not a phenom.

Courtesy of MLB.TV, I watched most of Zack Greinke's start tonight. I'll start by reminding everyone that he's pitching against the Expos, which has the worst offense in baseball. Now that we have that out of the way...

He...was...AWESOME.

Z. Greinke (in progress): 7IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K

He has incredible command, the ability to throw 10 different speeds, throws four above average pitches, and has excellent late movement on his fastball. And he's just so COOL on the mound. He throws so lazily it looks like he could never hurt himself. He always looks like he can throw a strike when he really wants to. His strikeout pitch to left handers is fantastic - a sinking breaking ball that just bottoms out to the knees at the last instant. I firmly believe his strikeouts will pickup as he gets accustomed to major league hitters.

I only recall two reasonably hard hit balls all night - a single up the middle and fly ball hit to the warning track to right (that drifted), but neither of those balls were smoked. The other two hits were a bunt and flare to left.

I know its just a few starts, but he does remind me a lot of Greg Maddux.

I'm very, very impressed.

Courtesy of MLB.TV, I watched most of Zack Greinke's start tonight. I'll start by reminding everyone that he's pitching against the Expos, which has the worst offense in baseball. Now that we have that out of the way...

He...was...AWESOME.

Z. Greinke (in progress): 7IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K

He has incredible command, the ability to throw 10 different speeds, throws four above average pitches, and has excellent late movement on his fastball. And he's just so COOL on the mound. He throws so lazily it looks like he could never hurt himself. He always looks like he can throw a strike when he really wants to. His strikeout pitch to left handers is fantastic - a sinking breaking ball that just bottoms out to the knees at the last instant. I firmly believe his strikeouts will pickup as he gets accustomed to major league hitters.

I only recall two reasonably hard hit balls all night - a single up the middle and fly ball hit to the warning track to right (that drifted), but neither of those balls were smoked. The other two hits were a bunt and flare to left.

I know its just a few starts, but he does remind me a lot of Greg Maddux.

I'm very, very impressed.

Rob Neyer on the bright future of Zack Greinke.

Man, I hope he's right.

I also noticed that Neyer's column is being moved to ESPN Insider, so we'll have to pay for the privilege. But don't worry; you'll still get free access to John Kruk's brilliant insights ("Jerrod Washburn for Cy Young!").

FREE MLB.TV! I'm too cheap to pay $60 for MLB.TV, so I was resigned to not having TV access this season. But I discovered a few days ago that if you sign up for MSN Premium (with the first three months FREE, thereafter $10 a month), you get MLB All Access as part of the package. Not a bad deal, methinks.

Jeremy Report
Anyhoo, I was finally able to watch Jeremy Affeldt as a closer. I mostly liked what I saw - he gave up two sharp singles, but he also struck two batters out and coaxed Rondell White into a weak popup to end the game. I think he is going to be a very effective closer, but its going to take some time for him to develop the kind of consistency necessary for the position. His main problems are curveball inconsistency and a tendency to overthrow his fastball. When he spots his curveball, though, it is simply devastating, and makes than 96 MPH fastball look like 102 - he's Barry Zito on BALCO. If he can learn to consistently throw his curve where he wants - and that's a big if - then he's going to be a top-5 closer in baseball for years to come.

I must admit that I've become convinced pretty quickly that this is the right thing to do for this season. I thought the decision was pretty hasty at first, and I'm still somewhat suspicious of using a highly talented pitcher 70 innings a year instead of 200. But the facts are right in front of us - since he came up to the bigs, he has been a much better reliever than a starter. Right now, at least, he seems like a pitcher who does better when he can go balls out for an inning or two, rather than throw 110 pitches. His fastball is very straight, not a lot of movement, so he needs to be able to pump it in there at 95-97 to be effective, which he can do in short bursts but not as a starter, where he routinely throws it at 91-92. He just gets pummelled with a 91 MPH straight fastball, especially when he's not spotting his curveball.

The Royals haven't had someone of his caliber and talent in the closer position since Jeff Montgomery oh so many years ago, and its arguably the single most important position in baseball. The Royals have been emotionally devastated by bullpen failures over the past several years, so if this can stabilize the closer spot for the next 5 years, then I'm all for it.

If he can get through this season without developing blisters, though, then I'd like to see the Royals try him as a starter again next season. I think its possible that he's unwittingly pitching too carefully as a starter to avoid blisters, which is why he's struggled so much this year. I think this early season nonsense about not striking batters out was an attempt to get him to throw with less gusto to avoid blisters. Anyway, if he can get past that mental block, he may yet be the dominant starter we all think he can be.