Monday, February 14, 2005

Is It Stinky?

The 2005 ZIPS projections have been in for some time, and they reveal this interesting nugget - the Royals have the lowest predicted runs created total among their top run producer (predicted to be Sweeney, with Pickering close behind). In other words, the Royals' best offensive player is the "worst best player" on any individual team. Go figure. On the pitching, no Royal pitcher is predicted to give up fewer hits than innings pitched - another bad sign. But it also has Greinke pitching 156 innings with 176 hits, which I see as implausible. I see Greinke's line as 180IP, 170H, 35BB, 130K, 25HR. He'll still be hurt by the long ball.

Tangotiger's Marcel, another prediction system, has Chris George with the 2nd worst ERA in all of baseball next season, assuming he sees the light of day in the major leagues. He best stay away for everyone's sake. It also does not see Brian Anderson achieving the comeback season we all dream of, to the tune of 156IP, 185H, 78K, 56BB, 5.11 ERA. Anderson is outdoubtedly hurt in the algorithm by his historically awful 1st half of 2004, and I think his peripherals will beat those predictions. But his ERA still might not be any better than 5.

Anyway, download the Excel files and check them out. They're fun and free.


At 7:41 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

I have to wonder just how likely it is that Zack will continue to have problems with the home run ball.

You know me, I'm not one to make excuses for a player's inadequacies. However, I think it's important to note that 11 of his 26 home runs allowed came in three starts:

7/20 vs. BAL (4)
8/10 @ CHW (3)
8/27 @ SEA (4)

He only allowed three bombs in his last 31 2/3 innings of work. Additionally, Zack's a different kind of young pitcher whose mental capacity allows him to recognize his mistakes and the physical capability to correct them. There's reason to be optimistic here, and it's all because I think Greinke's work ethic and talent are both on incredible levels.


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